Sept. 28

The Scott Rolen signing was a prelude to what the baseball mythologists hope will be a magnificent October, one that absorbs all the steroids, Mets and labor stains that remain on the table. Rolen had turned down $90 million for seven years from the Phillies on personal principles, then, while being advised to wait and let the Cardinals-Cubs rivalry increase the bidding for his services, signed an eight-year, $90 million deal with St. Louis because that is where he, like so many others, is happy playing baseball.

If the Cardinals trudge deep into October, they will become an American Saga after all they have endured this season. Their story is a made-for-television drama, not to mention they arguably have the best eight position players Fox can offer. First, the Cards will play the defending World Champion Diamondbacks, with Randy Johnson and Curt Schillling. While Barry Bonds will be another drama played out first against the Athens of sports franchises and their gallery of Greg Maddux/Tom Glavine/John Smoltz/Chipper Jones/Andruw Jones stars now joined by Gary Sheffield. Bonds and Giants manager Dusty Baker in a World Series with Pac Bell Park as the stage? Now, that would be must-see TV.

	“	We need a great playoff and World Series. But the fact remains that the baseball economy is screwed up. ”
		— A National League GM

And while the road out of the American League goes through Yankee Stadium, the American League playoffs have similar dramatic elements.

First, there are the Yankees, who have carried themselves with Joe Torre dignity in this seven-year run and between Roger Clemens, Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi, Mariano Rivera, Alfonso Soriano and Bernie Williams have a season of plotlines. So do the A's, who are trying to win without Giambi and with three great, compelling starting pitchers and a shortstop star named Miguel Tejada who has magic in his eyes. The Angels are a cast of talented, frenetic players, and the Twins ... everyone will be rooting for them because they fall somewhere between a John R. Tunis novel and "Major League."

It is as if Jupiter, Barry, Zeus, Jeter, Achilles, Everyday Eddie and all the baseball gods are aligned to erase all thoughts of Jose Canseco, Donald Fehr and the All-Star Game tie. But while it may be a glorious October, Rolen may be the poster boy for the right stuff. At 27, a great player at a position with a paucity of talent, he may have secured the best deal of anyone entering the free-agent market in the offseason.

"We need a great playoff and World Series," says one National League general manager. "But the fact remains that the baseball economy is screwed up. There are 20 teams trying to figure out how to reduce payroll and cut, not go and add players. There aren't more than a couple (teams) that can take on much added payroll. We needed to get a labor agreement, but that agreement isn't going to roll right into the agents' pockets. Too many teams have been hit too hard, and the clubs that are getting additional revenue-sharing money are, by and large, using it to cover revenue losses."

Attendance is down, and in many cities, so are revenues. The economy is, to put it mildly, flat, and there are several owners who have lost millions piled on top of millions. Unemployment is at a 10-year high.

If baseball thought that this agreement would bring eyesight to the blind, well ... guess what the club officials found out this week? There is no change in the draft because management and union officials differed on what they agreed upon at 4 a.m. on Aug. 30. So there is no reform, no slotted picks for not signing a first-round selection and, after declaring compensation for free agents dead, lo and behold it still exists. That will make teams eager to acquire extra draft picks like the Red Sox and Athletics less likely to go the extra mile to retain Cliff Floyd or Ray Durham.

The majority of owners look at the fact that four of the five highest payroll teams -- the Dodgers, Red Sox, Rangers and Mets -- are watching the playoffs from the friendly confines of their living rooms. Or that two of the five lowest -- the Twins and A's -- are postseason teams. Or that two of the three lowest -- Montreal and Florida -- finished ahead of the Mets.

A quick peek at the standings going into the last week suggest baseball has the social strata of a Banana Dictatorship: 11 teams with 90 wins, a potential for nine with 90 losses, a modern record four teams with 100 losses and the chance that for the third time in baseball history (as noted by Elias' Ken Hirdt) one third of all major-league teams could finish with a winning percentage of .450 or lower; the other two were the 1961 and 1969 expansion seasons, and one can argue that the Milwaukee Brewers rare in worse shape than the 1970 Brewers, or that the Kansas City Royals presently have a less promising future than their 1969 ancestors.

"That," says the GM, "is all the way ownership views the current business, not whether or not Fox gets a compelling World Series. There was a market readjustment last winter. There's going to be a huge one this winter."

Take a look at the contractual commitments and estimated budgets of the 30 major-league teams.

Keys: Player/Salaries = Players signed for 2003 and total salaries
Arb. #/$1+M = Number of players eligible for arbitration/total expected to be more than $1 million
Proj. payroll = Current budget projection

American League

Team	Player/Salaries	Arb.#/$1+M	Proj. payroll
New York	15/$121M	4/1	?
Boston	8/$67M	8/2	$90M
Toronto	1/$18.7M	9/4	$50M
Baltimore	9/$49M	8/2	$65M
Tampa Bay	5/$16.8M	10/4	$30M
Minnesota	6/$33M	5/4	$45M
Chicago	7/$37M	5/2	$55M
Cleveland	10/$37M	0/0	$50M
Kansas City	5/$23M	10/6	$35M
Detroit	10/$49M	10/3	$55M
Oakland	11/$41M	4/0	$50M
Anaheim	8/$52M	9/3	$70M
Seattle	9/$45M	10/6	$85M
Texas	10/$80M	6/4	$100M

National League

Team	Player/Salaries	Arb.#/$1+M	Proj. payroll
Atlanta	6/$59M	5/3	$95M
Montreal	4/$24M	11/5	$45M
Philadelphia	5/$27M	9/5	$75M
Florida	6/$20M	13/7	$45M
New York	8/$70M	5/2	$95M
St. Louis	9/$60M	5/2	$85M
Houston	7/$45M	5/4	$65M
Cincinnati	10/$34M	10/6	$50M
Chicago	6/$43M	5/3	$80M
Pittsburgh	9/$42M	5/2	$45M
Milwaukee	8/$29M	8/1	$45M
Arizona	10/$61M	7/3	$100M
San Francisco	12/$67M	4/2	$75M
Los Angeles	12/$95M	6/3	$110M
Colorado	8/$51M	9/3	$47M
San Diego	9/$33M	5/1	$40M

Philadelphia is moving into a new stadium and will dump $20+ million in contracts in Rolen, Travis Lee, Terry Adams, Doug Glanville, et al, and according to the Philadelphia Daily News could up their budget to $75-80 million. That would allow them to make a run at Jim Thome, or take a Carlos Delgado contract, if he would leave the safe harbor of Toronto.

The Cubs are losing $31 million in contracts, have low-salaried players like Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Bobby Hill, Hee Seop Choi and Corey Patterson in place, know they can win with their pitching and likely will spend to find a third baseman, catcher, left-handed starter and some relievers.

And how about Arizona? Joaquin Andujar you-never-know economists say you lose $40 million, figured owner Jerry Colangelo's management deal runs three more years and will try to find a gold course to give Greg Maddux to pitch with Johnson and Schilling.

The Yankees will buy what they need, although unless Clemens leaves, they may not need much. And how about Seattle? Who knows after CEO Howard Lincoln's statement that the Mariners are in the business of profits, not winning World Championships. Cincinnati is going into a new ballpark, but a lot of the Reds' $10-20 million budget increase will be eaten up by huge arbitration hits they're expected to take.

The Red Sox and Mets have new ownership debts, and want their budgets to be at $85-90 million and $95 million respectively; neither will be easily met. The Dodgers are already at $94 million for 2003 with three major arbitration cases to take place. Texas owner Tom Hicks says he will not pay a luxury tax, but while he's already at more than $80 million for 10 players with Pudge Rodriguez a free agent ... but when it comes to star athletes, Hicks may be like Robert Morse in "A Guide to the Married Man."

Look at the Braves' dilemma: AOL is trying to sell off CNN on the one hand. Team president Stan Kasten and GM John Schuerholz have always held fast to a budget -- a high budget, but when you've won every year since the Bush I Administration, it's necessarily high -- and now have to deal with Maddux and Tom Glavine being free agents and Kevin Millwood coming off a terrific season as a fifth-year arbitration case. When it's suggested that they'll go out and bag Thome for $15 million, they're dreaming; it could be that they have to make a choice on two of the three pitchers, and if they sign all three, have little room for anything but a scouring of the available first basemen, which might not be too difficult as many players could be available between the free agent and arbitration casualty lists.

Out In The Street

Players who could be on the market as a result of free agency, declined options or non-tenders, as well as players who could be available for trade because of their arbitration status: Free agents and declined options First basemen: Jim Thome, John Olerud, Fred McGriff, Todd Zeile, Tony Clark, Lee Stevens, Greg Colbrunn, Scott Hatteberg. Second basemen: Jeff Kent, Ray Durham, Edgardo Alfonzo. Third basemen: Robin Ventura, Bill Mueller, Tyler Houston. Shortstops: Mike Bordick, Jose Hernandez. Outfielders: Cliff Floyd, Steve Finley, Todd Hollandsworth, Kenny Lofton, Doug Glanville, David Justice. Catchers: Dan Wilson, Ivan Rodriguez, John Flaherty, Javy Lopez. Starting pitchers: Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Jamie Moyer, Kenny Rogers, Chuck Finley, Woody Williams, Andy Benes, Robert Person, Shawn Estes, Omar Daal, Dustin Hermanson, Brian Anderson, Steve Trachsel, Rick Helling, Jamey Wright, Paul Byrd, Ismael Valdes, Brian Moehler. Relief pitchers: Ugueth Urbina, Roberto Hernandez, Jose Mesa, Mike Timlin, Dave Veres, LaTroy Hawkins, Tom Gordon, Ramiro Mendoza, Dan Plesac, Mike Remlinger, Mike Stanton, Mike Myers, Alan Embree, Felix Heredia, Graeme Lloyd, Todd Jones. Players who may be available because of arbitration status First basemen: Derrek Lee, Brian Daubach, David Ortiz, Travis Lee, Brad Fullmer, Wes Helms. Second basemen: Luis Castillo, Todd Walker, Ron Belliard, Carlos Febles. Third basemen: Placido Polanco. Shortstops: Orlando Cabrera, Abraham Nunez, Neifi Perez. Outfielders: Frank Catalanotto, Jose Cruz, Peter Bergeron, Robert Fick. Catchers: Michael Barrett. Starting pitchers: Javier Vazquez/Tony Armas, Chris Carpenter, Carl Pavano, Orlando Hernandez, Rolando Arrojo, Brett Tomko, John Halama, Jimmy Anderson, Paul Wilson, Tanyon Sturtze, Todd Ritchie, Jeff Suppan, Garrett Stephenson, Masato Yoshii, Jim Parque. Relief pitchers: Antonio Alfonseca, Esteban Yan, Nelson Cruz, Vladimir Nunez, Dennys Reyes, John Rocker, Jeff Tam, Mike Venafro, Kerry Ligtenberg, Bob Wells, Bruce Chen.

If Montreal is ordered to keep costs down, GM Omar Minaya is going to have to make several difficult decisions involving Javier Vazquez, Bartolo Colon, Tony Armas, Jose Vidro, Michael Barrett, Orlando Cabrera, et al. Florida does not intend to keep losing money in the short term, and while trying to find a way to get rid of the contracts of Charles Johnson and Preston Wilson, may entertain several bids for arbitration eligibles (Cincinnati for Luis Castillo, Boston for Derrek Lee, several for Brad Penny). Houston owner Drayton McLane would walk through fire to get Clemens, but if GM Gerry Hunsicker otherwisde wants to go get a veteran starter and a center fielder, he'll have to be creative, like finding a way to move Richard Hidalgo. The White Sox drew 1.7 million fans, the Indians may drop below 2 million next season, and we all know what the commissioner intimated about the financial stability of the Tigers and Devil Rays.

What happens to Pudge Rodriguez at this point in his career? A one year, $7 million make-good-deal in Texas? Probably. Thome? If there is a new administration in Baltimore, maybe, but Orioles owner Peter Angelos won't like Thome's troubled back history. Philadelphia doesn't appear to be to Thome's taste, so the Indians may be able to do the lifetime team thing ... but at a saary level far below the Carlos Delgado line that even Giambi couldn't reach last winter. Floyd? Boston will go the three-year route at about what he made this year ($6.5 million), but not much above it.

There are three or four significant Asian players -- outfielder Hideki Matsui, shortstop Kaz Matsui, pitcher Akimori Otsuka and Korean first baseman Jae Park -- who are considering coming to the U.S. What is their market? That remains to be seen.

Minnesota owner Carl Pohlad has complained about losses, saw less than 50,000 fans come to the BaggyDome for their three games after clinching the AL Central and may well order that GM Terry Ryan move two or three of their salaries, possibly arbitration cases like David Ortiz and Jacque Jones, or a contract like Eric Milton. Oakland has enough built-in raises so that it's unlikely three of their most important veterans -- David Justice, Scott Hatteberg and Ray Durham -- can be retained.

What we saw during the season is that the value of prospects and low-cost players is such that teams trading veteran players to contenders had to pay money to get legitimate prospects in return. What we're seeing now is that teams tied into financial holes -- Colorado, for instance, which has four players signed for $40 million for this season with a budget that has dropped from a projected $80 million to $47 million -- are trying to come up with creative ways to move contracts.

How about aLarry Walker, Jack Cust and Jose Jimenez to Boston for Trot Nixon and Shea Hillenbrand? Sounds good, and the Red Sox can do it. But while the Sox love Cust and need a closer and Walker is a great player, he is also 35, and where do they get 20 homers and 80-90 RBI at third base for $350,000 until prospect Kevin Youkilis is ready if they do trade Hillenbrand?

The Padres probably will have to deal Brett Tomko, then tie a prospect to moving Bubba Trammell's contract. The Royals, meanwhile, may have to give away one of their many good young pitchers to find a taker for Joe Randa's $4 million salary.

Will a seven-game, Oakland-San Francisco World Series decided in the final inning by a Bonds or Tejada homer change the landscape?

In the long-term, yes. In the short-term, nothing is likely to change baseball's El Nino.