Feb. 1

"There's no wrong or right
But I'm sure there's good and bad
The questions linger
No matter how cold the winter, there's a springtime ahead
Thumbing my way back to heaven."
--Eddie Vedder

Try to forget the snow that has seemingly become embedded in your soul, or the ice that has frozen Buzzard's Bay from Hospital Cove to Marion, and think of "my starter won't start" as that old Lightnin' Hopkins song. This weekend is the deicing of winter, at least in the baseball mind, and while someone somewhere can argue collusion, Greg Maddux's arbitration case and the Chunichi Dragons can close their minds to the parallel positions of Kevin Millar and Norihiro Nakamura, the fact is that it is February and next weekend the Seattle Mariners will begin gathering around new manager Bob Melvin in Peoria, Arizona with those festive words, "pitchers and catchers report," which some of us consider the real "happy holidays."

	Darin Erstad and the Angels captivated the baseball world last season.

This spring, there are no threats of labor war, no mournful sighs of insurmountable class wars between the Yankees, the Haves and the Have nots; the notion that owners and players take the new labor agreement and cooperatively grow the business turned out to be nothing but fantasy, and relations are right back to Cold War levels. But that's all part of the next labor agreement.

Last spring, commissioner Bud Selig estimated that two-thirds of the teams began spring training without hope. Then, thanks to wise management and the shifting forces of the ecomomy, a mid-payroll team (Anaheim) won an unforgettable World Series against the upper middle class Giants, three of the four American League playoff entrants were mid- and small-payroll clubs, the four richest AL teams won one postseason game between them and here we are welcoming pitchers and catchers with the innocent joy of David Eckstein, Darin Erstad, John Lackey and Francisco Rodriguez as the game's screensaver.

Since the Mariners, because of their trip to Japan at the end of March, open first, I begin this week with the American League. There is obviously a class structure in this league, from the Yankees' payroll at $180-$200 million (before it's over) down to Tampa Bay at $30 million. The Rustbelt Central, as a division, was down 1.1 million in attendance between 2001 and 2002, and while the White Sox and Twins are expected to be serious contenders, it is a division in a recession. And just as it is less costly to contend in the Central, it is easier to get the wild card out of that division given the talent of Chicago and Minnesota, when 37 percent of their games will be played against the Tigers, Royals and Indians.

One cannot look at contending teams in a talent vacuum, because the unbalanced and interleague schedules insure that all schedules are not equal. That the last three years the AL wild card has come out of the West -- the strongest of the three divisions -- has been remarkable considering how often Oakland, Seattle and Anaheim played one another. And that in two of those cases they added six-game series against their NL rivals across The Bay (San Fransisco) or up the freeway(Los Angeles). Boston, for instance, went 40-17 in interleague play until the Fenway arrival of the Diamondbacks, where they were swept and went 1-11 against Arizona, L.A. and Atlanta.

This year, for instance, not only does the AL West have three contenders and a Texas team expected to be over .500, but their interleague rivals are the NL East. The Twins and White Sox play the soft underbelly of their division 57 times, but do have the NL West (although the Twins do get six games with the Brewers, the Sox six games with the Cubs). If one presumes the AL East regular season title to the Yankees -- as someone living in Tampa does -- then the Red Sox's road to the wild card includes their 57 games against Tampa, Baltimore and Toronto and a wild-card schedule that takes them to Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Philadelphia and brings the Cardinals, Astros and Marlins to Fenway Park.

Asking around, one still finds general managers are split between the Yankees and the A's for the pre-spring training favorite, despite the fact that the New York payroll quadruples that of Oakland.

"These A's are like Maryland (men's college basketball) last spring," says one GM. "It's their time. They've got the talent, and they've matured together."

But while Oakland is clearly capable of winning the World Series, its schedule makes the road to a playoff position more treacherous, and its margin for error thinner; if Mark Mulder hurts his back, there is no replacement, but if Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte go down, not only does Yankees general manager Brian Cashman have Jose Contreras and Jeff Weaver, but he has the wherewithal to offer the GNP of Upper Volta in return for Javier Vazquez.

So the Yankees are the one AL team that rightfully expects to be playing in October, as long as manager Joe Torre and Cashman are allowed to do what they do so well. But mix in the Angels, A's, Mariners, White Sox, Twins and Red Sox, and half the league rightfully begins spring training with expectations that if they play well, are healthy and do what A's GM Billy Beane does every July in the trade market, that they, too, could be playing eight months after the first PFP drill.

Here's a spring look:

The losing worse than death division (the firing squads assemble every dawn)
New York Yankees
What happened to that pitching staff in the last three games against the Angels in th Division Series was horrific, and tends to recall the number 35, which is the average age of the starting rotation when and if Weaver is in the bullpen.

What's going to happen when the players see the Hideki Matsui media posse charge into the locker room, or if the Yankees create an international incident by limiting access? How will Contreras make his cultural conversion? How is Mariano Rivera's shoulder, not to mention his new bullpen support team?

	Alfonso Soriano Second baseman New York Yankees Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM AB R HR RBI AVG 156 696 128 39 102 .300

Blah ... blah ... blah ...

The fact is that only age, injuries and owner hysteria can keep the Yankees from being really good. The offense is oppresseive; they led the league in on base and slugging last year, and with the expected development of Nick Johnson and Alfonso Soriano, the arrival of Matsui and better health for Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter, they could and should be better and deeper. Oh, defense has been a problem; they led the division in errors (127) and unearned runs allowed (72) last season, but Raul Mondesi and Matsui on the outfield corners and more games with Johnson at first base may improve that.

In 2002, New York's starters were not as good as Boston's: the starters' ERA was 3.97 to Boston's 3.53, the starters' opposing OPS was .705 to Boston's .676, quality starts 87 to Boston's 95. But it was also a season in which Boston's three top starters were 1-2-4 in the league in ERA. And while Roger Clemens turns 41 and David Wells 40, having Contreras (31 celsius) and Weaver creates an illusionary spring training problem that over the season will turn out to be a huge advantage.

There was a two-month stretch last season when Mike Stanton, Steve Karsay and Ramiro Mendoza were as valuable as any relievers in the game, but while they were all in the top five in appearances, they did wear down. Now Torre has Juan Acevedo, Chris Hammond and Antonio Osuna surrounding Karsay and Rivera, all unproven in the line of Yankee Stadium fire. If they have to make a run to Best Buy, they can always bring home a Felix Rodriguez.

Team song: "I am Mine."
And you thought it would be, "I am The God of Hellfire."

The thousand points of light division
Oakland Athletics
The A's won 102 games in 2001, then lost Jason Giambi and won 103 last year. Oh, they've lost in the first round of the playoffs three straight years, but they keep regrouping and retooling around one given: the best Big Three in the league, which is why former manager Art Howe could leave, current skipper Ken Macha could take over and no one blinked.

Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito have been first or second in the AL Cy Young voting each of the last three years, and by acquiring Ted Lilly last summer, dealing Billy Koch for the performance of Keith Foulke and adding a new cast of middlemen around the changeup artist believe that that pitching is better than ever before. They allowed the fewest runs in the league, had the best starters' ERA (3.58), tied Boston for the most quality starts ... enough to overcome whatever problems they had, including the annual April dregs.

	Barry Zito Starting pitcher Oakland Athletics Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM IP W-L BB SO ERA 35 229.1 23-5 78 182 2.75

There were offensive inconsistencies last year, enough to score only 4.94 runs a game -- albeit in a pitchers' park -- which was the lowest figure in the division. Now, Beane went out and acquired Erubiel Durazo, who could be a new Giambi in the middle of the lineup, to fit in with Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez, Scott Hatteberg, Jermaine Dye, et al. Even if Durazo is what Beane dreams, Adam Piatt emerges and Dye, as expected, comes back to what he was before breaking his leg, there are some offensive issues that can be summed up in one number -- .302, the combined 2002 OBP for Chris Singleton, Terrence Long and Ramon Hernandez. Understand, while moving Long back to left field and pushing Hernandez may boost them, the fact remains that they have a gaping hole in the leadoff hole; remember, Jeremy Giambi was second in the AL in leadoff on-base percentage while he was there last year, and Ray Durham, the most significant deadline acquisition last season, was fourth.

Beane believes that the season comes in three parts: the first two months, when you figure out what you have; the next two months, when you take care of what you need; and the final two months, when you get into the passing lane and floor it. He also has restocked his organization with tradeable prospects, although one of them, Rich Harden, may be in the rotation after the All-Star break. The bullpen should be much better when Jim Mecir gets back, with new, young arms Buddy Hernandez, Mike Neu, Chad Harville and Joe Valentine giving Macha a lot of flexibility and power, not to mention far less trauma than Howe endured in the late innings last season.

But if Hudson, Mulder or Zito went down for half a season ... that's the single biggest issue. The A's are still the best run family store, competing every October with Wal-Mart.

Team song: "Revolution in the Classroom."

Anaheim Angels
For all the miracles, from K-Rod to Adam Kennedy's three homer game to the five-run comeback in Game 6 of the World Series, what made the Angels so good got lost. If you, like most, believe that run differential is a significant indicator of strength, remember that the Angels outscored their opponents by 207 runs, the best differential in the AL.

According to Elias Sports Bureau, the Angels led the majors in "productive outs," i.e. advancing teammates while making outs. Their defensive efficiency was .731, the best in the majors, which means their defense converted 73.1 percent of the balls put in play. Their starting pitchers had one fewer quality start (94) than Oakland and Boston, seven more than the Yankees, 12 more than the Mariners.

So it's not just that they lay their souls on the ground every day, run the bases intelligently, have long, quality at-bats and came up with a postseason hero (Rodriguez) and a Game 7 winner (John Lackey), who were in Double-A when the season opened.

Can Jarrod Washburn do it again after a career high in innings? Maybe, maybe not, and while no one is expecting Brendan Donnelly to be so dominant -- even though everyone roots for him to do so -- the bullpen should be better. Troy Glaus appeared to figure it out in the postseason, so that his .250/30/111 could easily become .290/45/130.

The only major addition by GM Bill Stoneman was to sign Eric Owens, which makes it possible for Tim Salmon to increase his DH at-bats. But given the depth of the starting pitching and the youth of the lineup, why would Stoneman make changes? Anyway, he has one of the best managers and coaching staffs in the business.

That said, there are a remarkable number of general managers and scouts who offer the same appraisal: the Angels could win 95 or 85 games. With little to judge in spring training, it's a matter of seeing what happens come August.

Team song: "Mickey's Monkey."

Minnesota Twins
The Twins were the 2002 John R. Tunis story, the Little League kids from the poor side of the tracks who went all the way to Williamsport. The novelty has worn off, but once they went out and signed their signature player, Torii Hunter, and no one except David Ortiz was axed for payroll purposes the memory of October has crystallized into the reality that this is a very deep and talented team.

OK, they were ninth in the league in runs and were 23-29 against left-handers, and Jacque Jones is hardly the prototypical leadoff hitter. But look at the talent: Bobby Kielty (who is loved like Durazo by several teams), Dustan Mohr and Mike Cuddyer would start for almost any other team, and they are in a three-way scrum for right field in spring training, which may result in some Ron Gardenhire scrambling similar to the Kielty-Mohr platoon that Bert Blyleven called "Dusty Killmore." Oh yes. If this were Detroit or a lot of teams, Mike Restovich and Lew Ford would be touted as Rookie of the Year possibilities, but with the Twins they're headed for Triple-A Rochester.

They can be a much better offensive team, if the experience matures them, if Matthew LeCroy becomes a productive DH and the entire infield, all of whom had down years, return to their 2001 levels; Cory Koskie played hurt all season, kept his mouth shut and hit only 15 homers.

They have the best left-handed bullpen trio on the planet in Everyday Eddie Guardado, J.C. Romero and Johan Santana. Curiously, Santana has more value than anyone on the staff, which leads to a huge question in the starting rotation. Last spring, the Twins were the favorites in the Cental because their four starting pitchers were all All-Stars, but it turned out between injuries and other questions the starters' ERA was 4.38, their 78 quality starts mediocre. While they believe Brad Radke will come back and Kyle Lohse will emerge as a 200-inning, 15-game winner, spring training will show the health of Joe Mays' shoulder and Eric Milton's knee; for all his talent, Milton's career ERA is 4.80.

GM Terry Ryan built this team, and he has been reluctant to trade his young players, but it may be that if they spring leaks, he has the depth of good young players to make the necessary trade.

Team song: "The Unwelcome Guest."

Chicago White Sox
In 2000, the White Sox led the AL in wins, then that winter GM Ken Williams traded for David Wells, which made Williams a genius until Wells' back blew out and so did most of the other starters. They have gathered the team back together, and this winter Williams acquired Bartolo Colon, who despite an alarming decline in his strikeout rate gives manager Jerry Manuel a solid second starter to go with ace Mark Buehrle, further support for Jon Garland and Dan Wright -- who were a combined 7-3 in 11 September starts -- and the confidence that if they get into October, they can beat anyone.

	Magglio Ordonez Right fielder Chicago White Sox Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM AB R HR RBI AVG 153 590 116 38 135 .320

Remember, they scored 88 more runs than the Twins, and their run differential was +58, Minnesota +54. Now they have Frank Thomas re-dedicated and re-focused and headed for a monster comeback with annual MVP candidate Magglio Ordonez (38 HR, 47 2BH, 135 RBI, .978 OPS), Paul Konerko, the dangerous Carlos Lee and Jose Valentin, who hits home runs and brings an infatigable energy to the club. And Joe Crede has been compared to Carney Lansford.

Oh, there are questions up the middle, especially defensively: can Miguel Olivo catch every day in the big leagues, is Willie Harris capable of handling second base, can Aaron Rowand hit in center field? Only the Royals allowed more unearned runs than Chicago's 82 last season.

Colon, the development of Garland and Wright and the hope that spring training produces a fifth starter from amidst Jon Rauch, Josh Stewart or Gil Heredia -- signed after a big comeback winter in Mexico -- to put less pressure on the offense. Around Koch, the bullpen is deep, with Gary Glover, Tom Gordon, Damaso Marte, Kelly Wunsch, Mike Porzio and two more young lefties Armando Munoz and David Sanders.

From a 16-11 September finish last year to a spring training with Bartolo Colon, this is a team to watch, a team that could lunch on the division's bottom feeders.

Team song: "You Can't Judge a book by looking at the Cover."
2120 South Michigan Avenue.

Boston Red Sox
Executives in the AL West and sabermetricians spent the winter wondering why the Red Sox won "only" 93 games.

"We thought they were the best team in the East and the second best team in the league because of their starting pitching," says one AL West GM, while taking the Bill Jamesian pythagorian theorem on run differential translated into won-lost record, the Red Sox should have won 100, not 93, games.

Meanwhile, for the last five weeks the self-absorbed Calvinists of Red Sox nation have bemoaned GM Theo Epstein's reluctance to trade Casey Fossum for one year of either Kevin Millwood or Colon. Never mind that the Boston farm system Epstein inherited is so pitiful that the Red Sox did not have a minor league pitcher win 10 games (or, for that matter, hit 20 homers) and that from the outset of his administration he has preached that the only way the Red Sox can beat a Brian Cashman team with George Steinbrenner revenues is through making this a "$100M developmental machine."

Epstein has tried to address the reasons for a team losing as many inexplicable games -- 13-23 in one run games -- as they did in 2002: 1. the bullpen and its fiery 6-7-8th inning crashes, which with Chad Fox, Ramiro Mendoza, Alan Embree, Mike Timlin and a host of acquired arms theoretically should be better built without a pure closer (although if Fox is healthy, he could be it); 2. the depth, which was laughable. With or without Kevin Millar, Jeremy Giambi, Todd Walker, David Ortiz, Damien Jackson, et al cannot help but improve the .661 OPS at first and .668 at second base, deepen the top of the order and give manager Grady Little a legitimate bench. And 3. there will be a new approach to hitting, which might cure so many nights when they swung at bad pitches, went from starter to the eighth inning and missed the middle men teams crunch.

Boston projected to those 100 wins because of their starting pitching, which had a 3.53 ERA, 95 quality starts and a miniscule .676 opponents' OPS. But while they are confident that Fossum will develop the touch of a change, that John Burkett will bounce back and that the bottom of the rotation is far better than in 2002 when they began with Frank Castillo, Darren Oliver and Dustin Hermanson, the question is whether Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield can match their seasons from 2002. Martinez is bigger, stronger and better conditioned than ever, but lives every start with fear for his shoulder, while Lowe's offseason surgery for skin cancer is a self-esteem concern. The Sox thought about signing Kenny Rogers, but would rather keep the money for the June market.

For years, the Red Sox were built to win talk show hearts in January. This one is built with depth and an eye on flexibility, and will be as strong a contender as Martinez, Lowe, Wakefield and Fossum allow.

Team song: "Come on, come on, come on, break my heart for old time's sake."

Seattle Mariners
Lou Piniella established credibility for the Mariners and helped build Safeco Field, but felt it was time to leave after the team fell to 38-36 in the second half and ownership vetoed additional payroll. So in comes the bright, personable Bob Melvin, who was such an invaluable aide to Bob Brenly in Arizona.

Critics see that the only offseason additions were Randy Winn and Greg Colbrunn, and that the team is getting older. But Melvin knows this team is built on defense and pitching, and that if Ichiro is healthy -- which he wasn't in the second half, when he hit .280 -- and that he and Winn at the top of the order (they were both in the top five in leadoff on-base percentage) give John Olerud, Edgar Martinez, Bret Boone et al opportunities to drive in runs. Melvin had a close relationship with Jeff Cirillo in Milwaukee, and perhaps he can restore Cirillo's shattered confidence; his .629 OPS was Neifi Perezesque.

To Melvin, the biggest question in spring training will be who fits into the rotation after Freddy Garcia, Jamie Moyer and Joel Pineiro. Ryan Frankln will be given the first shot at the four hole, while Gil Meche (who once was equated with Garcia), Rafael Soriano and Jamey Wright will be in the line for the last position while GM Pat Gillick looks to make a trade.

The other part of spring training will be to reinstall the National League mentality to this American League team, one that is the winningest team in its league over the last three seasons.

Team song: "I Won't go Hollywood."

The lurking division
Texas Rangers
Manager Buck Showalter changes everything. He is the law, there will be no whispers about players talking to the owner, no worry that the Rangers ever go into a game unprepared. He can judge the Hank Blalocks and Mark Teixeiras, and develop them.

Showalter will also love Alex Rodriguez, because he is great and he accepts responsibility. Problem is, he also takes up 22 percent of the payroll, which necessitated waving goodbye to Pudge Rodriguez and the manner in which this team was built -- add Ugueth Urbina, Rudy Seanez and Esteban Yan to go along with Francisco Cordero, Jay Powell and Todd Van Poppell in a deep bullpen geared to winning 8-6 games; last year, the pen was 33-for-66 in save opportunities. And they should have high scoring games ... often. If Juan Gonzalez comes back, Carl Everett's knee is OK and Blalock and Kevin Mench develop, they will score a lot of runs. In time, Teixeira will be in that lineup, somehow, somewhere.

The last two years have been disappointing, and attendance has dropped more that half a million even with A-Rod. But this can be a .500 team, or better depending on what develops in:

	Chan Ho Park Starting pitcher Texas Rangers Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM IP W-L BB SO ERA 25 145.2 9-8 78 121 5.75