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Trends to keep an eye on


Special to ESPN.com

March 24

Sizzling stories
• Stark: This year's Angels -- the Cubs?
• Gammons: Hot trends in '03
• Caple: Don't ignore the champs
• Candiotti: How Angels can repeat
• Fantasy: Who's hot, who's not
• Scout: Watch Mondesi, Griffey
• Poll: What is hot in baseball?
The hot topics
1. Drug testing
Because of Steve Bechler's death, ephedra has been the headline subject, but steroids -- and this has nothing to do with David Wells' literary masterpiece -- has been back on the tongues of players. When the 17 White Sox players wanted to skip the steroids test so that the percentage of players who failed the tests would be raised to the point where there would be mandatory testing next season as well, it was a thought privately applauded by many players.

The New York office of the Players Association may not understand that their legal and moral opposition to more widespread testing isn't the way the mainstream players think. "The majority of players want testing," says the Astros' Lance Berkman, "because we don't feel it's right that someone who cheats has an advantage over those of us who don't."

2. On-base percentage
In doing a story on which is the most important statistic this spring, more than 80 percent of the managers and general managers responded, "on-base percentage."

Barry Bonds
Left fielder
San Francisco Giants
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM R HR RBI OBP AVG
143 117 46 110 .582 .370

"You can't score runs unless you get people on base," says Padres GM Kevin Towers.

"It is the statistic off which everything else follows," says Barry Bonds. "It is unquestionably the single most important statistic in the game. It's everything."

Ten years ago, you'd have heard RBI or home runs or the like. Now the Billy Beane/Oakland Athletics influence has changed the way people view players.

3. Respect for the Minnesota Twins
Players on several other teams have mocked the White Sox who demeaned Minnesota.

"If the White Sox don't respect the Twins," says one Indians player, "they'll never beat them. (The Twins) play the game the right way."

Indeed, Minnesota didn't have one position player other than Torii Hunter have an above-average season. The Twins are a defense/speed team on turf, they play hard all the time, they are much deeper than any other team in the AL Central and, between Bobby Kielty, Dustan Mohr, Michael Cuddyer, Matthew LeCroy and Mike Restovich, they may have more depth of talent than any contending team.

4. New managers
When spring training started, there were 14 managers in place who didn't open spring training in 2002 with their respective club. Instead of the managing position being the recycling center, there are some very bright, energetic young potential stars in Mike Scioscia and Jim Tracy. And Oakland's Ken Macha seems as if he's been managing that team for years.

Ten years from now, we will be wondering why there was any doubt about the Indians hiring Eric Wedge or Seattle hiring Bob Melvin.

5. The need for one closer on every team
"I hear Boston's being operated by that stat guy," says one Marlins coach, meaning Bill James, who has long opposed the single closer theory.

No, James isn't "running" the Red Sox. Red Sox manager Grady Little talked about this last season, and GM Theo Epstein has long questioned the sagacity of spending $7 million to $10 million on one closer.

"It's a huge gamble," says Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti, himself once a great closer. "If Robb Nen goes down, we're in huge trouble."

"If it doesn't work in Boston," says Beane, "it isn't because the theory was wrong, it's because they had the wrong people."

In talking with people in baseball during spring training, it's been about 70-30 against going with the single closer.

The hot kids
1. Jeremy Bonderman, RHP, Detroit: "He should be the Tigers' Opening Day starter," says one scout. He throws 91 to 96 mph with a hard slider. But he's also very young and the Tigers are very ... well ... mediocre.

2. Mark Teixeira, 1B-3B, Texas: Even if he begins the season in Oklahoma City (Triple-A), he will be an impact bat by September, at first or third base.

3. Rich Harden, RHP, Oakland: Throws 93 to 97 mph. Is the next prodigy.

4. Jose Reyes, SS, N.Y. Mets: As soon as the Mets realize that they're not as good as their payroll, they will shift gears to the future, and this electric talent and personality will be the focal point. That is until Vladimir Guerrero goes on the market.

5. Ricardo Rodriguez, Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Davis, RHPs, Cleveland: They sent Guthrie down just so he can get some minor-league experience. But this is the heart of a staff -- along with C.C. Sabathia -- that could be very good, quickly.

6. Rocco Baldelli, CF, Tampa Bay: As one executive says, he "oozes talent." But will he be hurt by being rushed? In all probability, yes.

7. Horacio Ramirez, LHP, Atlanta: He has command, poise and has a terrific shot at winning the fifth-starter spot.

Affeldt
Affeldt

8. Jeremy Affeldt, LHP, Kansas City: One of the stories in Arizona has been the Royals' young pitching, and Affeldt has been the best of the lot. He throws 87 to 94 mph with a nasty breaking ball. He also has a lot of guts.

9. Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Boston. The reason why Shea Hillenbrand is available. Is an on-base machine.

10. Xavier Nady, OF, San Diego. In a short time, his power will be in the Padres' outfield.

11. Garrett Atkins, 3B, Colorado. The Rockies' third baseman of the near future began spring training 16-for-24. A gap hitter with power. Atkins and center fielder Choo Freeman will be ready very quickly.

12. Chin-Hui Tsao, RHP, Colorado. The best of all the Rockies' young pitchers. Is up to 94 mph and has four quality big-league pitches. Will start the season in Double-A, but may get to Colorado in a hurry.

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