ESPN Golf

Each week of the season, our experts share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial in Fort Worth, Texas.

Horse for the Course

Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Zach Johnson. Talk about a course that's built for a guy! Not only has Zach won here twice, including last year, but in the 28 rounds he's played in this tournament he's shot over par only 5 times. Twenty-one of 28 rounds under par, you bet your bottom that's the horse for this course.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Zach Johnson. The former Masters champion won his second Colonial last year with a 1-shot win over Jason Dufner.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Zach Johnson. The defending champion has won twice at Colonial, and his worst finish in his past seven appearances at the event is a tie for ninth.

Birdie Buster

Michael Collins: Bo Van Pelt. Got his first top-10 of the year at Wells Fargo and made the cut at the Players. Now a week rested he comes to a place (jinx alert!) where he has never missed a cut in nine straight years. And just for good measure, the past three years he hasn't finished outside the top 20.

Farrell Evans: Kevin Streelman. Since taking his first career PGA Tour win in March at the Tampa Bay Championship, the 34-year-old Duke alum has had three top-10s, including a tie for third in Hilton Head and a tie for second at the Players.

Bob Harig: Sang-Moon Bae. Coming off his first PGA Tour victory at the HP Byron Nelson Championship, Bae rallied to defeat Keegan Bradley, who shot an opening-round 60.

Super Sleeper

Michael Collins: Henrik Stenson. Back from the golf dead, the Swede has gone from walking off the course ready to quit to three top-10s  and six of eight cuts made. He is coming off a fifth-place finish at The Players and, even though he missed the cut last year, will see the golf course with renewed confidence this year.

Farrell Evans: Harris English. In his second year on tour, the lanky 23-year-old Georgian continues to show flashes of brilliance, but he's struggled on the weekends. Yet he is one of the most talented young players in the game. Last year, in his first appearance at Colonial, he finished in a tie for fifth.

Bob Harig: Harris English. Regarded as one of the game's up-and-coming players, English's best finish remains a tie for fifth at last year's Colonial.

Winner

Michael Collins: Hunter Mahan. Has "quietly" made more than $1.6 million so far this year, most of which came from his runner-up finish at Match Play. But it's kind of shaping up to be that kind of year, isn't it? Guys plod along, then BAM. But what do I know, last week my winning pick withdrew after our picks hit the webpage. Haha!!

Farrell Evans: Henrik Stenson. The 37-year-old Swede hasn't won on tour since his victory at the '09 Players Championship. But this season he's made a resurgence with a tie for second in Houston and a tie for fifth at the Players.

Bob Harig: Matt Kuchar. He has made 16 consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour and never missed the cut in six tries at Colonial, a course that should be made for him. Kuchar is about due for a victory, too.

Each week of the season, our experts share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: The HP Byron Nelson Championship at TPC Four Seasons Resort in Las Colinas, Texas.

Horse for the Course

Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Jason Dufner. The defending champ comes into the event off a Sunday 80 at The Players Championship. That won't keep him out the top 10 this week at the Byron Nelson, where his Sunday scoring average for the tournament is 68.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Dufner. The defending champion at the Byron Nelson has been in a minor slump for most of this season, but he expects to play well at the TPC Four Seasons Resort, where he shot 11-under on a very difficult course last year.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Keegan Bradley. He got his first PGA Tour victory at the TPC Four Seasons two years ago and also tied for 24th last year.

Birdie Buster

Michael Collins: Charles Howell III. Time for a top-10 at this event for Chucky Three Sticks. True, he's never had one here but … he's ranked 12th right now in the FedEx Cup points standings with five top-10s to his name, including a second and third early in the year. It's time to shine.

Farrell Evans: Jeff Maggert. Counting his days until he can play the Champions Tour, the 49-year-old three-time tour winner stumbled into a tie for second at The Players to lock up his 2014 regular tour card. Now he's thinking he can stay out there with the kids for a little while longer.

Bob Harig: Marc Leishman. The Aussie is on a nice run, having followed up his tie for fourth at the Masters with a tie for ninth at the Heritage and a tie for eighth at The Players Championship.

Super Sleeper

Michael Collins: Jordan Spieth. Both times he teed it up in this event he made the cut, even having a chance to win on Sunday in 2010 as a high school senior. So far this year on the PGA Tour he's made three cuts in four starts, including two top-10s in his past two starts.

Farrell Evans: Casey Wittenberg. The 28-year-old former U.S. Amateur runner-up got his first top-10 on the season with a tie for eighth in The Players, one of the strongest fields of the year. Though he shot a 75 in the final round, he played with the winner, Tiger Woods, which had to do wonders for his nerves under pressure.

Bob Harig: Spieth. He made his PGA Tour debut at the Nelson in 2010 as a 16-year-old and tied for 16th and is off to an excellent start in his first year as a pro, with three top-10s already to earn temporary status on the PGA Tour and all but assure his card for the 2013-14 season.

Winner

Michael Collins: Jonas Blixt. He'll be inspired by his friend David Lingmerth's performance at The Players Championship. The Swede finished third here last year and this week gets his second career PGA Tour win.

Farrell Evans: Bradley. The Byron Nelson is where it all started for the Bradley in 2011. He won here that May. Then three months later he won the PGA Championship. He needs a good week after missing his past two cuts in Charlotte and at Sawgrass.

Bob Harig: Ryan Palmer. He tied for fifth at The Players despite learning of the death of a longtime friend and has a good record at TPC Four Seasons, where he lost in a playoff to Bradley two years ago. The Texas native breaks through for his fourth PGA Tour victory.

Each week of the season, our experts share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.

Horse for the Course

Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Sergio Garcia. This will be his 14th start at this event, and he has missed the cut only twice. He's the leading money winner at this event, and he's coming off a good week in Charlotte.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Davis Love III. The two-time Players champion has a record 22 career rounds in the 60s on the Stadium Course at the TPC at Sawgrass.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Phil Mickelson. Lefty let one slip away Sunday at Quail Hollow, bogeying two of the last three holes to miss a playoff by a shot. But the 2007 Players champion had a solid week on the greens otherwise, and he seems to be upbeat about his game.

Birdie Buster

Michael Collins: Adam Scott. Making his debut as the Masters champion, he has three top-10s, including a win already at this course. Last year, if not for a bad Saturday, he would've had another. He's the one guy I think can handle all the craziness that comes with that first appearance after winning your first major.

Farrell Evans: Billy Horschel. The 26-year-old former University of Florida star and Ponte Vedra Beach resident is the hottest player on the planet. His win in New Orleans marked his fourth consecutive top-10 and 23rd straight made cut.

Bob Harig: Jim Furyk. He's never won his hometown event, but Furyk -- who lives in Ponte Vedra Beach -- at least has a good bit of experience on the course. He has missed only two cuts in his past 16 appearances.

Super Sleeper

Michael Collins: Tiger Woods. Damn right he's a sleeper in this event. Since his win in 2001, his only top-10 was in 2008. Last year, a "healthy" Tiger finished an unhealthy 40th. Time to find out how straight he can hit that driver.

Farrell Evans: Martin Laird. Last year, the 30-year-old Scot finished in a tie for second at The Players. In April, he got his third career win at the Valero Texas Open, his only top-10 in a year in which he has missed six of 11 cuts, including at his past two events, the Masters and the Wells Fargo Championship.

Bob Harig: Matt Kuchar. There's nothing to suggest that Kuchar can't win the tournament again -- except for the fact that the event has never seen its defending champion win at Sawgrass.

Winner

Michael Collins: Bo Van Pelt. Coming off his first top-10 of the year, and this was supposed to be a breakthrough season for the Oklahoma native. It's been feast or famine here at The Players Championship -- either top-10 (3) or missed cut (5) -- and he never has made cuts in consecutive years. Time for all that to come to an end this week.

Farrell Evans: Adam Scott. The 32-year-old Australian is still basking in his Masters triumph, but he's not resting on his laurels, especially at Sawgrass, where he won in 2004. After a three-week break, he's ready to start the drive toward the U.S. Open.

Bob Harig: Luke Donald. The Englishman has a strong record, with three top-six finishes over the past seven years at a venue where he has never won. Donald's last victory came at the European Tour's signature event, the BMW PGA Championship. Now he'll capture the PGA Tour's top tournament.

Each week of the season, our experts will share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C.

Horse for the Course

Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Sergio Garcia. Other than his W/D from the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Sergio has yet to finish outside the top 17 in the five events he's played all four rounds. Bet you didn't know he's ranked 17th in all-time money won at this event.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Rory McIlroy. Famous but not yet a global superstar, McIlroy claimed his first PGA Tour title here in 2010 with a final-round 62. Last year, he lost in a playoff at Quail Hollow to Rickie Fowler.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Webb Simpson. The reigning U.S. Open champion lives at Quail Hollow and has plenty of home-course knowledge. He was the 54-hole leader a year ago before fading on Sunday.

Birdie Buster

Michael Collins: Nicolas Colsaerts. This is going to be an eye-opening experience for the Belgian first-timer, but in a good way. He's going to average better than 65 percent of his greens in regulation and then easily get a top-10.

Farrell Evans: Lucas Glover. Injuries and a divorce have been distractions for Glover since he won the 2009 U.S. Open, but perhaps he's rounding into good form after a tie for fourth last week in New Orleans.

Bob Harig: D.A. Points. He didn't win in New Orleans, but came close again, following up on his victory from the previous week in Houston. After a terrible start to the year, Points has a victory and a runner-up finish. He also lost at Quail Hollow in a playoff to Rickie Fowler a year ago.

Super Sleeper

Michael Collins: Rory Sabbatini. Fifty percent of cuts made, one top-10 (T-9) and four finishes outside the top 25. And you thought Tiger was the only one impacted by a messy divorce? So, at this course, he's either going to finish third or miss the cut.

Farrell Evans: John Peterson. The 24-year-old Web.com tour player got into the Wells Fargo field because of his tie for eighth in New Orleans. Don't be surprised to see him do well this week. He had a tie for fourth at the U.S. Open last year after qualifying through sectionals.

Bob Harig: Phil Mickelson. Lefty loves the tournament, and has six top-10 finishes in nine appearances, but no victories. Still, it is impossible to know how he will perform after such a poor performance at the Masters and a subsequent two-week break.

Winner

Michael Collins: Kevin Streelman. This will be win No. 2 for the Wheaton, Ill., native who grew up playing courses that didn't always have pristine greens. He'll have the patience that will be needed on the stressed-out greens of Quail Hollow's back nine to win.

Farrell Evans: Lee Westwood. The 40-year-old Englishman has had top-10s in his past two starts on the PGA Tour, including a tie for eighth in the Masters, his ninth top-10 in his past 17 major championships. Last year, he had a tie for fifth at Wells Fargo.

Bob Harig: McIlroy. It is somewhat amazing how quiet things have gotten for the No. 2-ranked player in the world. Perhaps that is a good thing. He did win at Quail Hollow three years ago, and lost in a playoff last year.

Each week of the season, our experts will share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: Zurich Classic at TPC Louisiana in Avondale, La.

Horse for the Course

Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Bubba Watson. A winner here in 2011 and a 9-under weekend last year, heck in seven starts he has missed only one cut at this event. After a week off, to lick the wounds of Augusta, playing a golf course you know well and are familiar with is just what the golf doctor ordered.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Jason Dufner. Caught looking dazed and confused earlier this year in a room full of Texas school children, the 36-year-old Auburn alum is eager to get folks to talk about his golf again. He's had success at TPC Louisiana, where he has had a win, a tie for third and tie for seventh in his past three starts on the Pete Dye course.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Jason Dufner. The defending champion not only won a year ago at the TPC Louisiana but it was his fourth consecutive top-10 finish in the tournament.

Birdie Buster

Michael Collins: Camilo Villegas. Making his third appearance in this event. Last year he shot three rounds in the 60s, including a stellar second-round 66. Villegas is steadily making a slow charge back to where he once was a contender week in and week out

Farrell Evans: Billy Horschel. This 26-year-old with Walker Cup experience has had a T-2, T-3 and T-9 in his past three events. The time is coming soon for him to win his first tour title.

Bob Harig: Billy Horschel. The former Florida Gator continues to impress, with another top-10 finish at the RBC Heritage. It was his third straight top-10.

Super Sleeper

Michael Collins: Chris Stroud. Coming off a week where he got his first top-10 of the year to a place where he hasn't finished outside the top 26 in the past three years tells us he's trending in a very good direction and should be a lock for back-to-back top-10s.

Farrell Evans: David Mathis. Last year in New Orleans, the 39-year-old journeyman vaulted into the top 10 with a final-round 7-under 65 that included a 30 on the back nine at the TPC Louisiana. The Campbell University alum needs a good week after missing his past six cuts.

Bob Harig: David Toms. A winner of the event in 2011, Toms will be making his 20th appearance in his home-state event.

Winner

Michael Collins: Justin Rose. Hard to bet against the highest-ranked player in the field, especially knowing he's ranked second on tour in scoring average. This is a course where he shot three straight rounds in the 60s last year and if not for an opening-round 72, would have contended then too. Expect the first win of 2013 to be right here this week.

Farrell Evans: Keegan Bradley. An 82 in the third round of the Masters was an aberration for this former PGA champion. He had scored top-10s in his previous four events coming into Augusta. While he missed the cut here in New Orleans last year, he shouldn't have any problem handling TPC Louisiana this time around.

Bob Harig: Justin Rose. The Englishman is bound to break through one of these weeks. One of just a handful of top-25 players in the field, the No. 4-ranked golfer gets his first victory of 2013.

Each week of the season, our experts will share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, S.C.

Horse for the Course

Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Boo Weekley. Since 2007, he has had one finish below 13th at this course. With that kind of resume, if you play fantasy golf and he's not on your team this week, just quit the league because you don't know what you're doing.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Boo Weekley. Golf's No. 1 country boy got both his PGA Tour wins here in back-to-back years in 2007 and 2008. After a few years of struggling with injuries, he's finally playing well again with two top-10s, including a second at the Tampa Bay Championship in March.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Jim Furyk. He has six top-10s in his past eight appearances, including a 2010 victory. He was tied for eighth last year.

Kevin Maguire, ESPN.com senior golf editor: Michael Thompson. Buoyed by a final-round 67 at the Masters to notch a T-25 finish, the Honda Classic winner's game should translate well to this week's venue, Harbour Town. Thompson is likely hoping for the conditions to toughen up the seaside course as he tends to play better with more difficult conditions (see 2012 U.S. Open).

Birdie Buster

Michael Collins Billy Horschel. He hasn't missed a cut all year and comes into the week having a second- and third-place finish this season. This may be a breakout year for the UF grad, and this course plays into his southern hands perfectly.

Farrell Evans: Matt Kuchar. His nickname should be Mr. Consistency. At the Masters, the former U.S. Amateur champion and reigning Accenture Match play champion tacked on his fourth top-10 of the year with a tie for eighth.

Bob Harig: Jason Day. The Aussie contended at the Masters again, missing a playoff by 2 strokes and finishing third, his second top-3 in two years at Augusta National. The good vibes should carry over to Hilton Head.

Kevin Maguire: Luke Donald. His T-25 finish at the Masters notwithstanding, Donald owns this week's venue, Harbour Town Golf Links. In the past four years, he's finished inside the top three on three separate occasions.

Super Sleeper

Michael Collins: Graham DeLaet. It's his third appearance in this event. DaLaet ranks 5th in Greens in Regulation on tour which it going to serve him very well this week facing some of the smallest greens on tour.

Farrell Evans: David Lynn. After a 68 in the first round of the Masters, the 39-year-old Englishman and runner-up in the 2012 PGA appeared as if he had a special thing for the majors. But then he shot an 80 in the third round to come back down to earth. Still, he got some confidence from that 68 that might help him this week at Hilton Head.

Bob Harig: Boo Weekley's only two career victories came at Harbour Town in 2007 and 2008, and he's had three top-15s since. Playing better this year, too, with eight consecutive made cuts.

Kevin Maguire: Kevin Stadler. To play well at Hilton Head, hitting greens in regulation always ranks high on any player's to-do list. Stadler's currently sixth on the PGA Tour in that stat. Toss in his T-4 in 2012 on the South Carolina gem of a track and you can expect big things from Stadler this week.

Winner

Michael Collins Jordan Spieth. Ladies and gentlemen, I'd like to introduce you to your rookie of the year. In three of the four cuts he's made so far this year, he's got a top-25 and two top-10s. This kid has been ready to win since he was a senior in high school in Texas and almost won the Byron Nelson. Now look for him to take his temporary membership to full champion status in one fell swoop.

Farrell Evans: Jason Day. The 25-year-old Australian let the green jacket slip from his grasp on Sunday with two late bogeys, but his game has never looked better. Look for him to have a nice rebound this week at Hilton Head, where he last played in 2011, finishing in a tie for ninth.

Bob Harig: Brandt Snedeker. That final round at Augusta National undoubtedly stings. He won at Harbour Town two years ago and is playing nicely this year, with a victory and two runner-up finishes.

Kevin Maguire: Matt Kuchar. Many thought Kuchar would be a contender at Augusta National, and he hung around for a T-8 finish. This week he contends at a much more laid-back venue that better suits him.

AUGUSTA, Ga. -- Tiger Woods got a bad break when his approach shot to the par-5 15th green bounced off the flagstick and into the water during Friday's second round.

He might also have taken a bad drop.

Masters officials are expected to review the situation Saturday morning, which could lead to disqualification if it is deemed Woods dropped the ball in the wrong spot.

Because Woods signed his scorecard for a 1-under 71 without adding the 1-stroke penalty, he would be disqualified because he put a six on his scorecard instead of a seven.

Woods had 87 yards to the hole for his third shot and saw his ball hit the flagstick and then roll back off the green and into the water.

Under Rule 26-1, Woods had three options at the yellow-staked (not lateral) hazard, which is a pond that fronts the green:

• He could have played from a designated drop area, which he chose not to do because he did not like the lie.

• He could have dropped the ball, keeping the point at which it last crossed the margin of the water between the hole and the spot on which the ball would be dropped. Since the ball entered the water well left of Woods' position from the fairway, it would seem he did not choose this option, which would have allowed him to drop on a straight line as far back as he wanted.

• Or he could return to the original spot from which he played, and drop "as nearly as possible'' from where he played the third shot.

This is the option Woods took, and in interviews afterward, he said he dropped "two yards'' behind the original spot. Replays seemed to suggest he was closer than that, but the question is if that is considered "as nearly as possible'' to the original spot.

On a CBS-TV highlights show late Friday night, analyst David Feherty showed the replay and said he believed the drop was illegal.

Augusta National officials were not available for comment early Saturday morning, but golf's rules officials typically review any possible violations brought to their attention.

AUGUSTA, Ga., -- On Friday afternoon, as a 1-shot penalty for slow play threatened to keep 14-year-old Tianlang Guan from making the cut, a watch commenced to see if the tough conditions at Augusta National could keep the controversial ruling from staining the tournament.

The wind, the sinister pin locations and devilish greens on the Alister MacKenzie-designed gem needed to help the game avert perhaps an international embarrassment.

As the players trickled in from their rounds, sidestepping the growing chaos around Guan near the Augusta clubhouse, there was assurance from players that there was hope that the kid would make it into the weekend through the top 50 and ties or the 10-shot rule. After a 75 on Friday, Guan was 4 over for the tournament.

Four-time Masters champion Tiger Woods was playing the front nine, where he had started the day 2-under par. It wouldn't have been a stretch to see him shoot a 65 or 66 that would have sent the youngster home before the weekend.

"It ain't going to happen," Bo Van Pelt said of someone getting to 7 under par. "It's really tough out there."

Van Pelt knew because he hadn't played poorly in his 2-over 74 on Thursday. He shot a 64 in the final round last year at Augusta to finish in a tie for 17th. The year before he had come close to winning on Sunday.

Adam Scott provided more assurance that Tiger wouldn't dismantle Augusta's usually vulnerable par-5s.

Scott, who didn't have a birdie on the par-5s on Friday, had come in after shooting an even-par 72 to finish 3 under at the halfway point.

"I would love to play the par-5s a little better, but today they were playing tough ... all of them," he said. "From [No.] 15, 13 into the wind, [No.] 8 is kind of into the wind and across, and [No.] 2 is even into the wind off the tee. It makes them tougher and I didn't take advantage of them.

"Even par in these conditions is a good score. Everything was thrown at us, and the pins are really tough, it's easy to make mistakes."

Players all around the course were saying the same thing. Some early showers had softened the course, but then the wind picked up. Yet it was blowing in a different direction than it had been during the practice rounds and on Thursday.

Dustin Johnson, with a 4-over 40 on the second nine, was tormented by the tough conditions.

Sergio Garcia provided more insight after shooting 76 on Friday, a score few could have imagined after his bogey-free 66 on Thursday.

"It was not only the strength of the wind, because if it's consistent you kind of figure it out, but unfortunately today it was very, very gusty," Garcia said.

"There were some shots that you would hit well and it would make you look a little bit silly, like what happened to me on [No.] 15, I hit a great 3-iron.

"It's almost dead calm when Angel [Cabrera] and Adam [Scott] were hitting. I hit mine, I hit what I thought was a perfect shot to the middle of the green and caught a huge gust and unfortunately it comes up short into the water."

Fred Couples, the 1992 Masters champion, is sitting pretty after a 71 in his second round, yet he was mystified and at times made hopeless by the conditions on Friday.

"It feels like even your good shots you're not getting rewarded," said the 53-year-old Seattle native playing in his 29th Masters. "I hit a great shot on [No.] 18 and we were playing the wind left to right and it turns more downwind and we're on the top shelf, and now you're struggling to make [par]. There's nothing you really can do about that."

Friday, Mother Nature and Augusta National worked together for the good of the game. No matter the opinions on slow play and the righteousness of the 1-shot penalty, everyone wanted to see the kid play into the weekend.

Realistically, by late afternoon Marc Leishman, Woods and Jason Day were the only players with a chance of ending Guan's week.

Leishman was the first to succumb to the difficult conditions.

Tied for the lead with Garcia coming into the second round, the 29-year-old Australian went into the back nine even par for the day, but then his momentum stalled at Amen Corner.

"It was blowing hard at the left on [No.] 13 where you have to hit a big hook around the corner," Leishman said. "And 15, what's generally reasonably reachable, it's blowing straight in. So probably only the longer hitters can get there today and it made -- I guess you would call them the birdie holes -- not really legitimate."

Then there was Tiger, always unpredictable and capable of flurries of brilliance that defy the imagination. After shooting 33 on the front nine to get to 5 under, he couldn't summon a single birdie on the back nine, ending up with a 1-under 71 and 3-under total for the tournament.

"I really swung the club well and didn't really get a lot out of this round," Woods said. "Granted, these conditions were tough. It was swirling all over the place."

Playing in the final group in the afternoon, Day still had a chance to get to 7 under with a birdie on the par-4 18th. But after hitting his drive left into the fairway bunker, he couldn't convert the birdie.

The kid was going to be all right. Guan had made the cut on the 10-shot rule. He still needs to play faster, but the maddening conditions at Augusta National had saved his 1-shot penalty from tarnishing his historic appearance at the Masters.

It was a stressful five hours or so between the end of Guan's round and the completion of Day's. In real time, the golf world potentially nearly collapsed around the issue of slow play. Then in an instant, it turned to the celebration of a boy's survival of a test way beyond his grasp.

Augusta National, which will outlast any controversy, made it so with its enduring ability to confound the best players in the world.

ESPN golf analyst and two-time major champion Andy North put together his list of the 10 greatest shots in Masters history. ESPN.com will roll out his rankings on a daily basis leading up to the world's top players competing at Augusta National this year.

No. 1: Larry Mize, 1987

The Augusta, Ga., native holed out from the right of the 11th green in a sudden-death playoff with Greg Norman in what North believes is the single greatest shot in Masters history.

With a lightning-fast green that brought the pond into play on any shot toward the hole, Mize drained the chip from more than 100 feet away to seal the Masters victory.

The mirrored statistical pace Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus have at this point in their major championship careers is downright eerie.

Nicklaus turned 37 in January of 1977. Entering that following April's Masters, he had won 14 majors in 60 starts as a pro. Woods turned 37 last December. Entering this year's Masters -- he's won 14 majors in 60 starts as a pro.

With three victories already this season, and a game that appears to be in top form, there seems to be no better time than now for Woods to claim his fifth Masters title.

Still, with the memory of 2012's disastrous major championship weekends fresh in everyone's mind, many are reluctant to predict Tiger winning major No. 15 this week at Augusta National. We at Numbers Game tell you why Woods will -- and will not -- win the 2013 Masters Tournament.

Why he will win

1) Tiger is putting better than he ever has.

The numbers say that Woods is putting at a more efficient clip than he ever has in his PGA Tour career.

Woods currently leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained-putting, an all-encompassing metric that measures the value of a player's putting performance relative to the field. Woods is currently gaining 1.48 strokes per round on the field. This is the 10th year the statistic has been tracked on the PGA Tour. His previous best entering Augusta? +0.84.

Tiger's last two starts -- at Bay Hill and Doral -- are among the three best strokes gained-putting performances of his career. Woods' win at Bay Hill saw him gain 11.2 shots on the field putting -- almost 2 shots more than in any other event in his career since the inception of the statistic.

How much better is Tiger putting this year? In addition to leading in strokes gained, Woods is inside the top five on tour in putting inside 10 feet, between 10 and 15 feet, between 4 and 8 feet and 3-putt avoidance. Tiger was outside the top 30 in each of those statistics in 2012.

2) Tiger is eliminating the left side of the golf course.

It's no secret that when Tiger misses off the tee, he prefers to miss right. The numbers tell us that Tiger is working -- successfully -- to eliminate the left side of the golf course.

Off the tee in 2012, Woods hit the left rough a staggering 17.3 percent of the time, ranking 170th on the PGA Tour. Despite his victory at Bay Hill preceding Augusta a year ago, Tiger was tied for 83rd in the statistic entering the 2012 Masters.

This year, it's a completely different story. Woods is tied for ninth on the PGA Tour in left rough tendency, hitting it there off the tee less than 10 percent of the time. The last time Tiger ranked in the top 30 in this statistic? That would be 2008, when he won the U.S. Open.

3) Tiger is dominating the par 5s like he did in his prime.

From 1997 to 2009, Tiger Woods ranked inside the top five in par-5 scoring average on the PGA Tour every year. He led the circuit in the statistic every year but two during that span.

But in 2010 and 2011, Woods would have ranked outside the top 20 in the statistic if he had played enough rounds to qualify. And last year, Tiger was just 1-under on the par 5s at Augusta National -- his worst score on those holes as a professional. It's no coincidence last year was also his worst Masters finish as a pro (T-40).

Woods is coming off a performance at Bay Hill where he played the par 5s in 14-under, 2 strokes better than anyone else in the field. In his three wins this year, Tiger is a combined 35-under on par 5s. He's 11-under on par-3s and par-4s.

Woods' par-5 performance has been more important than the average PGA Tour winner this year. In his three wins, par 5s account for 76 percent of Tiger's strokes under par. For the last eight stroke-play winners not named Woods on tour, that percentage is 55.9.

Each of the last four Masters winners were 9-under or better on the par 5s. Tiger has equaled or surpassed that at Augusta seven times in his career, never finishing worse than T-6 when that happens (winning twice).

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Why he won't win

1) The weekend magic in the majors is gone.

Despite winning three times, Tiger Woods' 2012 season was defined by his weekend stumbles in major championships. Woods was 8-under in Rounds 1 and 2 of majors last year, but was 15-over in Rounds 3 and 4. Not once in 2012 did Woods record a round under par on the weekend in a major championship.

The trend didn't start in 2012, though.

From the 2004 U.S. Open through the 2009 U.S. Open, Tiger Woods made 18 cuts in majors (19 starts). On each of those 18 weekends, his final position was either better than his 36-hole position, or he maintained the lead and went on to victory.

In the 12 major starts he's made since, Woods has made 10 cuts. In those 10 tournaments, Woods went the other direction on the weekend nine times. The lone exception was the 2010 U.S. Open (T-25 Friday night, finished T-4).

2) Tiger's touch shots aren't back to his gold standard.

A common saying regarding elite players and swing changes is that "the wedges are the last to come around." In Woods' case, the statistics say they're not completely back, despite his recent success.

Entering the 2005 Masters, Tiger Woods was inside the top 20 on tour in several approach shot proximity categories, including between 50-75 yards. Woods is tied for 89th in the statistic in 2013.

On all approach shots between 50-125 yards, Woods was T-7 on tour. This year, Woods is 43rd.

3) Bay Hill wasn't a harbinger for victory in 2012.

In 2012, the Arnold Palmer Invitational was Tiger's last event before the Masters. Woods led the field in par-5 scoring that week, was top-5 in the field in strokes gained-putting and marched to victory by multiple shots. The world was preparing for Woods' return to victory at Augusta.

Sound familiar?

Tiger racked up his eighth Arnold Palmer Invitational title a few weeks ago in his last start before the Masters. He led the field in par-5 scoring, was first in strokes gained-putting and seems fully prepared to win at Augusta.

For many, nothing Woods has done over the last two years will be validated until he wins another major championship.

The numbers can explain why Tiger is the overwhelming favorite to win at Augusta. They also tell you that betting against Woods would be a wise choice.

With or without a Woods win, the 2013 Masters promises to be one of the most exciting weeks of golf in years.