ESPN Golf

Each week of the season, our experts share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Ga.

Horse for the Course

Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Tiger Woods
Bad back and all, he still only has to beat 29 guys. I don't think he'll win, but he is on a course that he's got two wins and four runner-ups ... did I mention he's the all-time money leader in the event by almost $1.3 million?

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Jim Furyk
The latest tour player to shoot 59, the 43-year-old took the 2010 FedEx Cup with a win at the Tour Championship. That was his last tour victory. Heading home following this week after being left off the U.S. Presidents Cup team, Furyk is itching to prove that Fred Couples made a big mistake.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Phil Mickelson
He has won twice at East Lake, and at sixth in the standings could very well take the FedEx Cup if he manages a victory.

Kevin Maguire, ESPN.com senior golf editor: Brandt Snedeker
Sneeeeeedeker won here last year in an emotional victory and is coming off a T-8 performance last week at the BMW Championship. He might not win the whole thing again, but a repeat at East Lake isn't out of the question.

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Birdie Buster

Collins: Jordan Spieth
He has been playing with house money since winning the John Deere Classic in July. Why wouldn't the man-child continue his stellar play and do just one more thing a 20-year-old rookie has never done before -- like top three at the Tour Championship?

Evans: Steve Stricker
The 46-year-old, part-time golfer postponed his elk-hunting trip to Colorado to be in Atlanta. After a second and a tie for fourth in his past two events, he has good reason to be hunting for the $10 million first prize at East Lake.

Harig: Zach Johnson
The man has had an incredible two months, starting with a playoff loss at the John Deere Classic and strong finishes at the Open Championship, WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, PGA Championship and Wyndham Championship. He capped off the run with a victory Monday at the BMW Championship.

Maguire: Steve Stricker
Stricker sits in the No. 6 spot in the FedEx Cup rankings, just outside the "control your own destiny" crowd in the top five. That being said, with a victory at the Tour Championship, the Wisconsin native just might walk away with the $10 million. Not bad for a part-time gig.

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Super Sleeper

Collins: Roberto Castro
If you live less than 15 minutes from the course and have played it over a hundred times, you might have a slight leg up on some of the competition this week. Castro will be sleeping in his own bed and comes in as the "under the radar" guy no one will see coming ... until now.

Evans: Jordan Spieth
At 13th in the standings, the 20-year-old rookie needs a win and some help to take the playoffs crown. But at the beginning of the year with no status on any major tour, his chances of making it to Atlanta were pretty slim. Now he's one of the biggest stories of the year.

Harig: Brendon de Jonge
He finished 27th in the FedEx Cup standings but has never won on the PGA Tour and qualified for the Tour Championship for the first time.

Maguire: Luke Donald
He only fits this category because he sneaked his way into the Tour Championship with a final-round 66. Toss in his four top-5 finishes in six starts at East Lake and you have a possible surprise winner of the 2013 season finale.

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Winner

Collins: Adam Scott
Did you forget he won this event in 2006? It's OK if you did. Other than his sixth-place finish in 2011, he hasn't cracked the top 10. This is a different Adam, though. This Adam has a green jacket and 10 million new reasons to take the title, including player of the year.

Evans: Tiger Woods
The 14-time major champion hasn't played poorly in the playoffs. His worst finish was a tie for 65th at the Deutsche Bank Championship. At East Lake, where he last won in 2007, he will take his third FedEx Cup crown. It's not as big as a major, but it's a nice way for the world's best player to finish off another phenomenal season.

Harig: Tiger Woods
A victory at East Lake would be his third Tour Championship title, locking up a third FedEx Cup. It also would give him six wins this year and 80 for his PGA Tour career. A nice way to end the season.

Maguire: Justin Rose
A victory for the reigning U.S. Open champ -- who finished second last year at East Lake -- would make next week's PGA Tour player of the year debate mighty interesting.

LAKE FOREST, Ill. -- A wife, a couple of kids, a green jacket ... and about $30 million in prize money. Those are just a few of the things different in Zach Johnson's life since he last played at Conway Farms, site of this week's BMW Championship.

Johnson was a college golfer at Drake when he came to the Chicago suburbs in 1997 for the NCAA championships played here. He shot 81-69 to miss the cut.

"I remember it being phenomenal then," said Johnson, 37, who has nine PGA Tour wins, including the 2007 Masters, and is ranked 24th in the world. "I hadn't played many courses of this stature at that point. But it's good. It's matured a little bit since then. I think it's going to be a good test. It's all based on conditions and the weather, but it's going to be a good test."

How good remains to be seen, as Johnson is among a small group of players in the 70-player field who had ever seen the course prior to this week.

The BMW Championship, formerly the Western Open, had found a permanent home at Cog Hill Country Club, which is about 45 miles from here. From 1991 through 2007, the tournament was played there every year, moved to St. Louis in 2008 for a year, and then returned to Cog Hill for three more years before going to Indianapolis last year.

The Western Golf Association, which runs the event and saw the tournament based in the Chicago area every year dating to 1962, decided to hold it in alternate years outside of the Windy City. Player disdain over a redesign at Cog Hill also hastened the move to another Chicago venue.

"It's in great shape," said Steve Stricker, who was among the critics of Cog Hill. "It's a nice layout. I think depending on the weather, the scoring is going to be pretty good. It's pretty generous off the tee. The green complexes are the challenge where you have to put it in precise areas, and a lot of movement on the greens. So that's going to be a real challenge.

"But if the weather is OK, I kind of expect the scoring to be pretty good here."

Noted architect Tom Fazio designed the course, which opened in 1991. It plays to just over 7,100 yards, which is short by today's professional golf standards. It is a par-71, with three par-5s, including the 14th and the 18th, both of which ought to be birdie holes.

Tiger Woods, who has won this tournament five times, the last in 2009 at Cog Hill, saw the course for the first time Wednesday and said he expected scores to be good, with the high number of "scoring" clubs a player can have if he hits the ball in play.

The biggest factor promises to be the weather. After highs in the 90s so far this week, the high temperature Thursday will drop to 75 with a low of 45 overnight and a high of just 64 on Friday. Those conditions are quite a difference from the practice rounds.

"I think it gives you quite a few different opportunities and tactics," said Henrik Stenson, the winner of the Deutsche Bank Championship who leads the FedEx Cup standings. "If you want to be aggressive or if you want to be conservative ... I guess it's kind of hard to know what to expect and what numbers could be out there, which is kind of good in a way."

Each week of the season, our experts share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: the BMW Championship at Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest, Ill.

Horse for the Course

Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Luke Donald or Kevin Streelman
The issue with having a home game -- and these guys are both Chicago-area golfers -- is the extra pressure you put on yourself to play well in front of friends and family. Because Streelman no longer lives in Chicago, I'd give him the edge over Donald if I had to choose one. Streelman's length off the tee doesn't hurt, either.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Steve Stricker
Although Stricker is a Wisconsin native, he has deep roots in the Chicago area. He is a die-hard Bears fan and former star at Illinois. A great week at the BMW could give him a chance to win in Atlanta and postpone his elk-hunting adventure in Colorado.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Luke Donald
The Englishman lives in Chicago and is a member at Conway Farms, meaning he'll have played the course more than anyone in the field. He needs a big week, too, as he is 54th in FedEx Cup points and needs to move into the top 30 to advance to the Tour Championship.

Kevin Maguire, ESPN.com senior golf editor: Tiger Woods
Sure, he's never played a PGA Tour event at Conway Farms. Then again, neither has anyone else in the field. What Woods has done is win PGA Tour events in the Chicago area before -- as well as majors -- so you know he feels comfortable. And that always helps Tiger play well.

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Birdie Buster

Collins: Ian Poulter
Not only did he play his way into the BMW Championship, but he jumped 25 spots from 77th to 52nd. After this week he'll jump into the Tour Championship, with whatever putter he found has been working.

Evans: Jordan Spieth
With a 62 in the final round of the Deutsche Bank, the 20-year-old Dallas native earned his eighth top-10 of the year with a tie for fourth. Now that Fred Couples has made him a member of the U.S. Presidents Cup team, at 10th in the playoff standings, Spieth only has to now play for the $10 million playoffs first prize.

Harig: Henrik Stenson
Can a week off cool the red-hot Swede? Stenson has been top-3 in five of his past six starts, including runner-up finishes at the Open Championship and Bridgestone Invitational and his victory at the Deutsche Bank Championship.

Maguire: Jason Dufner
In his past four starts, Dufner owns three top-10 finishes (including that PGA Championship victory.) At 13th in the playoff standings, a strong showing this week could put him in line to crack the top five heading into East Lake, where he could ... wait for it ... control his destiny to win the $10 million.

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Super Sleeper

Collins: Kevin Stadler
If you don't think catching momentum at the right time matters, check out what Stads has done the past two events. After MC's at the PGA Championship and Wyndham Championship, he has flipped the switch. Look for a second straight top-10 finish.

Evans: Kevin Stadler
The 33-year-old son of former Masters champion Craig Stadler, Kevin Stadler has had three 64s in his past eight rounds. At 32nd in the FedEx Cup points standings, he has a very good chance of making his first Tour Championship.

Harig: Ernie Els
It's tough to think of the Hall of Famer as a sleeper, but Els needs a big jolt this week. He barely made it to Chicago, finishing in the 70th and final spot by less than one FedEx Cup point. He'll need a big week to advance to Atlanta.

Maguire: Ian Poulter
Of the players outside the top 30 in FedEx Cup points, the Englishman is tied for fewest PGA Tour events played (15) this season. That means he hasn't had as many chances to earn FedEx Cup points (by his own decision) and thus might be a little underrated at his ranking of 52nd.

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Winner

Collins: Dustin Johnson
You knew as soon as U.S. Presidents Cup captain Fred Couples didn't choose him for the team he'd win the first week they're back on the course. Pure karma. You can decide whether it's good or bad.

Evans: Henrik Stenson
I like Stenson's chances of taking his second consecutive playoff event this week at Conway Farms. He's been the best player in the world since the Open Championship in July.

Harig: Keegan Bradley
Just a hunch here, but Bradley seems due. He has not won in 2013 but is still 11th in the FedEx Cup standings, one big week away from putting himself in position to win it all.

Maguire: Steve Stricker
Stricker -- who after his second-place finish south of Boston said that he might not even play in the Tour Championship unless he has a shot to win it all (read: the $10 million) -- just might skip that buddies hunting trip after a great week outside Chicago.

NORTON, Mass. -- What do you get when you put Tiger Woods and Michael Bloomberg together on a golf course? How about a pairing that's worth a few billion -- with a b -- dollars.

The world's No. 1-ranked golfer and the New York mayor were part of the first group in Thursday's pre-tournament pro-am at the Deutsche Bank Championship and played 18 holes on a drizzly, wet TPC Boston course.

Playing TaylorMade RBZ irons, Bloomberg's game was squirrelly at best to start, but it turned around as the day went on. He struck several impressive shots; on a couple of back-nine par-3s, he had legitimate birdie putts.

Sporting a shirt from Deepdale Golf Club (Manhasset, N.Y.) -- and eventually a sweater from the same course when the weather turned colder -- as well as a National Golf Links logo bag, the 71-year-old signed autographs and posed for pictures between holes with fans lining the fairways just south of Boston.

The mayor appeared to take his golf seriously. Several times throughout the round he held long discussions with his caddie about club selection and how to play a specific shot.

On a few swings later in the round, Bloomberg appeared to have perfected the Arnold Palmer-esque follow-through as he reached forward following his shot.

But the most pronounced part of his game? That came on the greens, where the Independent noticeably stood unbalanced as he stroked his putts, leaning heavily to his left.

Each week of the season, our experts share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: the Deutsche Bank Championship at the TPC of Boston in Norton, Mass.

Horse for the Course

Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Jason Day. The man hasn't missed a cut all year (18-for-18), and I can't see him missing this one, either. Especially given that he's the 10th all-time money leader at this event, doing that in only five tries. Expect at the very least a top-10 from the Aussie who has half of his 18 starts cashing at least a top 25.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Tiger Woods. In eight appearances at the TPC Boston, the 14-time major champion has finished outside of the top 11 only once. He won here in 2006 and has two seconds and a third on his résumé at the Arnold Palmer-designed course.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Tiger Woods. Since the FedEx Cup began in 2007, Woods has never finished worse than 11th here in four starts. He also won at TPC Boston before the FedEx Cup and finished second last year.

Kevin Maguire, ESPN.com senior golf editor: Tiger Woods. He has played the event eight times has finished T-11 or better in seven of those. Throw in a T-2 at the Barclays last week and the only reason he might not have a high finish is if he doesn't tee it up at all because of his back injury. Otherwise, he'll be donating another big check to his foundation, which is the main charity beneficiary from this tournament.

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Birdie Buster

Collins: Jason Dufner. Still recovering from the PGA Championship hangover, he still managed to shoot no worse than even par every day at the Barclays last week. At TPC Boston, expect Duff to get right back up on the horse and start riding again. This time, I expect to see him in the top five by Sunday evening.

Evans: Henrik Stenson. The Swede's tie for 43rd at the Barclays was an aberration, particularly after opening with a 65 in the first round. He's been the best player on tour this year without a win. This time last year, he was done with the playoffs. Now, at 13th in the standings, he has a great chance to make it to Atlanta for the Tour Championship.

Harig: Adam Scott. He didn't think he had done enough Sunday, but his final-round 66 pushed him to the top of the leaderboard at the Barclays, giving him a second PGA Tour victory this year -– along with the Masters -– and moving him to No. 2 in the world.

Maguire: Phil Mickelson. Lefty turned it up a notch in the final round at Liberty National, so clearly the tank isn't completely empty after that Open Championship win. He owns a victory and two other top-10 finishes in the event, so never count out Mickelson.

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Super Sleeper

Collins: Jason Kokrak. Golf is all about momentum, and Kokrak has some right now. His Sunday 67 at the Barclays jumped him 45 spots on the FedEx Cup points list, going from 95th to 50th. Now, being that close to getting into the top 30 with a tournament to spare, he can free-wheel it at a course that sets up very nicely for the bomber from Canada.

Evans:  Rory McIlroy. Even though the 24-year-old former world No. 1 is the defending champion at the Deutsche Bank, he is a long way from the form that led him to this win and three others on the PGA Tour in 2012. His best finish this season was a second at the Valero Texas Open. Still, he is arguably the most talented young player in the game and has the ability to run away from any field with very low scores.

Harig: Camilo Villegas. This week is a bonus for Villegas, who by all rights should not have advanced –- a Sunday 76 seemingly doomed him at the Barclays before others faltered worse. He has had difficulty putting good rounds together.

Maguire: Erik Compton. One of just five guys to play his way into the Deutsche Bank Championship who started Barclays week outside the top 100, the two-time heart transplant recipient knows a thing or two about playing under pressure. He does it every day of his life.

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Winner

Collins: Phil Mickelson. Talk about a course that fits a guy's eye! In the six times he has teed it up at this venue, only twice has he finished outside the top 25. Now, with Phil coming off a Sunday charge at the Barclays and an extra day's rest, I expect him to make a push back at Adam Scott for that player of the year award.

Evans: Phil Mickelson. After that emotional win at Muirfield, Mickelson could have coasted into a quiet offseason with his family. Instead, he's trying to win his first FedEx Cup playoffs. After a tie for sixth at the Barclays, few are doubting his desire to finish out the season on a strong note.

Harig: Rory McIlroy. He is slowly but surely making strides, even if the results do not completely show it. Although he has dropped to fourth in the world, McIlroy has played some of his best golf of the year lately. The Deutsche Bank is where he got one of his five worldwide wins in 2012.

Maguire: Zach Johnson. Johnson's worst finish in five starts since June? That would be a T-8 at the PGA Championship. He has karma on his side, too, because he skipped the first playoff event for his brother's wedding. Even though his history at TPC Boston doesn't include a top-10 finish, a victory in Beantown just might be in his future.

Each week of the season, our experts share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: The Barclays at Liberty National Golf Club in Jersey City, N.J.

Horse for the Course

Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Ian Poulter. Honestly, there's no such thing as a horse this week because it's almost a new course. New York, however, is an Ian Poulter kind of town. I'm giving him the nod this week because Poulter finished ninth the last time we were here, and knowing the kind of shopping damage he could do on his wallet this week on Fifth Avenue, he has to play well to break even.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Henrik Stenson. At almost 7,500 yards, Liberty National would appear to favor a long hitter, but in 2009 the diminutive Heath Slocum was the surprise winner. This challenging layout will force players to hit it both long and straight. In 2013, a resurgent Stenson ranked sixth in driving accuracy while averaging 290 yards off the tee. Coming into The Barclays, the 37-year-old Swede is ninth in FedEx Cup points after six top-10s, including a second at the Open Championship and a third at the PGA.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Tiger Woods. Snickers aside, Woods tied for second at Liberty National in 2009, a venue he was not enamored with but one that has had several tweaks since The Barclays was last played there.

Kevin Maguire, ESPN.com senior golf editor: Tiger Woods. Well, this Liberty National course is more like version 2.0 with the changes it's undergone, so I'm not sure anyone qualifies for this category. But going back to 2009 when The Barclays was held here, Woods did finish a shot outside of a playoff.

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Birdie Buster

Collins: Dustin Johnson. What better engagement present for Paulina than a top-5 finish at The Barclays? It also doesn't hurt that he hasn't missed a cut since the Memorial and his last start was an eighth-place finish at the PGA Championship. DJ won The Barclays in 2011 after an earthquake early in the week, and then the event was shortened to 54 holes because of Hurricane Irene.

Evans: Jordan Spieth. Making his first career start in the FedEx Cup playoffs, the 20-year-old Dallas native is coming off a playoff loss at the Wyndham Championship, where he shot 65 in the final round. Come next month at the Tour Championship, don't be surprised to see him contending on Sunday afternoon for the $10 million playoff series first prize.

Harig: Jordan Spieth. He started the year with no status on any tour and begins the FedEx Cup playoffs at eighth in the standings after a win in July and a playoff loss on Sunday.

Maguire: Jordan Spieth. It's simply amazing that a kid -- well, he is only 20 -- who started the year just looking to get into pro events, now looks like he'll be headed to the Tour Championship. Even though he didn't come away with a second victory Sunday at the Wyndham Championship, it wouldn't be a shocker to see the Texan contend this week.

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Super Sleeper

Collins: Brian Harman. In 2009 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, then-rookie Harman told me, "To get me off this tour they're gonna have to drag me kicking and screaming. I am never going back to the minor leagues!" The dreaded sophomore slump almost did just that. But a solid finish at Wyndham locked up a spot this week, and look for the good play to continue -- maybe even into the Tour Championship.

Evans: Brian Harman. At the Wyndham, the 26-year-old second-year tour player out of the University of Georgia had a tie for third, his career-best finish. The Savannah native is a very confident young man, eager to join his former Bulldog teammates (Patrick Reed, Russell Henley and Harris English) in the winner's circle in 2013.

Harig: Patrick Reed. Few players win back-to-back, especially young ones, and Reed is likely just happy to be here. But he's playing nicely and can wrap up a spot in the Tour Championship – which comes with all manner of perks – if he can have a good week.

Maguire: Morgan Hoffman. In the 2009 version of this event held in Jersey City, it was a super sleeper -- Heath Slocum -- who pulled out the victory. Watch Hoffman, an Oklahoma State grad, make some noise this week.

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Winner

Collins: Tiger Woods. He finished second in 2009 and didn't even like the course back then, joking, "Maybe Tom (Kite) designed this before his laser eye surgery?" That's funny, I don't care what you say! Now that the course has been "softened" a bit, he'll play golf as he has in every other tournament that wasn't a major ... amazingly. Expect him to miss some fairways, but the rough won't be ridiculous and everyone, including Tiger, will struggle with the new greens. That being said, this should wrap up Player of the Year honors for him when he's holding that trophy Sunday night.

Evans: Tiger Woods. In 2009, the 14-time major champion finished in a four-way tie for second at Liberty National. Tiger had two 67s on the weekend, but he came up a shot short of matching Heath Slocum's 9 under winning total. This time he will prevail at the quirky par-71 course designed by Tom Kite and Bob Cupp.

Harig: Webb Simpson. The 2012 U.S. Open champion hasn't won this year, but he contended at The Barclays four years ago and seems to be finding his game of late. At 17th in the FedEx Cup standings, Simpson could take over the top spot with a victory, depending on other factors.

Maguire: Jason Day. The Aussie owns six top-10 finishes and is coming off a T-8 at the PGA Championship. He's never won a playoff event, but expect that streak to end this week.

ROCHESTER, N.Y. -- As he has done in each of the past two major championships, Phil Mickelson plans to start the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club without a driver in his bag, instead going with two 3-woods.

The strategy served him well a few weeks ago at Muirfield, where he hit 3-wood, 3-wood on the 17th hole of the final round to set up a two-putt birdie that all but sealed the Open Championship title.

Earlier in the year at the U.S. Open, going without a driver didn't keep Mickelson from contending, although he second-guessed himself afterward when there were a couple of times it might have helped him.

Mickelson had wavered on the topic over the weekend at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, but told ESPN's Bob Holtzman at Oak Hill that he had made up his mind Tuesday morning to forgo the driver.

"I may sacrifice 20 yards off the tee, but I want to get the ball in the fairway, make sure my misses are minimized and keep it more in play," Mickelson said. "I may have an extra club or two into the greens, but that's OK. First and most important is getting the ball in play off the tee. Second, is keeping it under the hole."

Mickelson has raved about a 3-wood he uses from Callaway that has allowed him to hit more fairways while not sacrificing too much distance -- although he can't hit the ball as far as he would with a driver.

At last week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, Mickelson gave a technical reason for his success without a driver.

"Throughout my career, the mainstay or the staple of my game has always been my iron play," Mickelson said. "It's always been the strength of my game and what's allowed me to have the career that I've had. The two areas that have given me problems especially in the last four years, let's say, have been putting and driving off the tee.

"And we've seen what has happened with the X Hot 3-wood. It's changed my driving altogether. We saw it at the U.S. Open and we saw it at the Scottish and British when I was able to get the ball in play and reach 17 in two shots and just hit a lot of fairways.

"So off the tee, it's totally different, and the reason is because of the spin rate. The spin rate has dropped down and it allows me to make my normal swing at the irons and hit the right flight, the optimum flight off the tee without having to make an adjustment. That's been monumental for me."

Each week of the season, our experts share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: The PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club's East Course in Rochester, N.Y.

Horse for the Course

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Phil Mickelson
At the 1995 Ryder Cup at Oak Hill, where Europe beat the U.S. 14.5-13.5, Mickelson went 3-0 in his first appearance in the biennial matches. Eight years later in the PGA, he had a tie for 23rd that included bookend 66s.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Tim Clark
It's been 10 years, but Clark navigated Oak Hill quite well the last time the PGA was in Rochester; he was one of just three players under par.

Kevin Maguire, ESPN.com senior golf editor: Ernie Els
The Big Easy also teed it up at the 2003 PGA Championship held at this week's venue, Oak Hill, and finished T-5. Although his form hasn't been great lately (no top-20s in his past three PGA Tour starts), he's surely capable of contending at the year's final major.

Ian O'Connor, ESPNNewYork.com columnist: Zach Johnson
Lee Trevino, who won a U.S. Open at Oak Hill in a different life, picked Johnson to win the PGA. The former Masters winner doesn't beat himself, knows how to hit fairways (a must at Oak Hill), and has finished in the top six in his last three events.

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Birdie Buster

Evans: Henrik Stenson
The 37-year-old Swede notched his fifth top-10 of the year with a tie for second at Firestone. His nerves are primed after a runner-up finish in July at the Open Championship, his best career finish in a major.

Harig: Tiger Woods
He comes into the PGA after an impressive performance at the Bridgestone, where he shot a second-round 61 and cruised to a 7-shot victory. After a tie for sixth at the Open Championship, it is hard to argue with how he is playing.

Maguire: Keegan Bradley
The 2011 PGA Championship winner has been on a tear this season, earning more than $3 million so far in 2013. That total was greatly helped by his T-2 finish last week at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.

Ian O'Connor: Phil Mickelson
His non-contention at Firestone is a nonfactor, as Mickelson was still walking on air after his Muirfield miracle. It looked like he treated the WGC as a bunch of practice rounds for the PGA, and as he proved at the Open Championship, no treacherous golf course -- not even Muirfield or Oak Hill -- is safe when Phil gets hot.

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Super Sleeper

Evans: Miguel Angel Jimenez
At 49, Jimenez is supposed to be headed toward a gracious exit from the world golf stage to less stressful environs on the Champions Tour, where he can take an extra day to enjoy his fine wines and cigars. But the Spaniard is insistent on staying around with the kids for as long as he can. At Firestone, he finished in a tie for fourth. At the Open Championship, he owned the lead after the second round and held on for a tie for 13th. His best finish at the PGA came in 1999 at Medinah, where he tied for 10th.

Harig: Henrik Stenson
The Swede has quietly moved up the world rankings after a number of high finishes, including second at both the Open Championship and the WGC-Bridgestone.

Maguire: Hideki Matsuyama
He's all of 21 years old, but the two-time winner of the Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship (which got him into the Masters in 2011 and 2012) has played in four career majors and made the cut every time. Not a bad percentage for the newly minted pro who finished T-10 at the U.S. Open and T-6 at the Open Championship this year.

Ian O'Connor: Lee Westwood
Written off after his Sunday collapse at Muirfield, a loss that made him 0-for-62 in the majors, Westwood is nobody's smart-money pick to win the PGA. But Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson won majors this year after recent heartbreaking losses, so why can't Westy do the same?

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Winner

Evans: Tiger Woods
In his lone appearance at Oak Hill in 2003, Tiger finished in a tie for 39th, 16 shots back of the winner, Shaun Micheel. When you're perhaps the greatest player of all time, there is always an urgency for you to win, especially when you're chasing Jack Nicklaus' record of 18 majors. Someone may beat him this week, but they are going to have to play their best golf to do it.

Harig: Zach Johnson
The 2007 Masters champ has played nicely of late, losing in a playoff at the John Deere Classic, tying for sixth at the Open Championship and posting another top-10 at Firestone. His game is in good shape, and if he can keep it in play at Oak Hill, why not?

Maguire: Brandt Snedeker
He's turned the corner since returning from an injury earlier in the season (see his RBC Canadian Open win last month as Exhibit A.) And if the short-hitting Fred Funk could finish T-7 at the 2003 PGA at Oak Hill, then length clearly isn't required to score well, which plays right into Snedeker's hands.

Ian O'Connor: Tiger Woods
My doomed pick at Merion and Muirfield, but I'm going to keep sticking with him until he finally comes through. Tiger has the momentum after Firestone, and he needs to grab the early lead and play the (much) preferred role of front-runner. It's high time he ends the drought.

Only one player in the history of golf can have a season in which he wins five times, finishes fourth at the Masters, sixth at the Open Championship, and people ask what's wrong with him.

Tiger Woods' obliteration of the PGA Tour's record book continued Sunday in Akron, Ohio, where he won his 18th World Golf Championship event. If you're keeping track, nobody else has won more than three of those things.

But until Woods changes his recent history on the weekends in majors, many will still question the world's No. 1 player in his pursuit of the sport's ultimate record.

Woods' weekend woes
From 1997 through his last major victory, the 2008 U.S. Open, Woods was a combined 61 under in Rounds 3 and 4 of majors. Since then, he's 11 over in those rounds. That Woods has struggled during the final 36 holes of majors recently is no secret.

The trend of Tiger sliding down the leaderboard on the weekend has been especially exacerbated over the past six majors. He is 11 under in Rounds 1 and 2 of those six events -- he's 23 over in Rounds 3 and 4.

The numbers say his putting is the culprit. Over the past six majors, Tiger has needed 28.3 putts per round (340 in all) in the first two rounds. In Rounds 3 and 4, he has averaged 30.9 putts per round (371 total -- 31 more than the first two rounds).

And when you boil it down to the final round, it's even more staggering. In his past 13 major starts (since the 2010 Masters), Woods has a combined 13 three-putts in the final round. In the 13 majors he played before that stretch, he had only four.

Not surprisingly, he's 10 over in the recent stretch of struggling Sundays -- he was 9 under in the previous span.

Is Tiger's Bridgestone win a precursor to major No. 15?
This will be the 20th time in Woods' career he enters a major championship having won his last PGA Tour start. His record in those majors? Four wins and ten top-5 finishes. But when he wins the week prior, his record is much more impressive.

This is just the fourth time that Woods enters a major having won on the PGA Tour the week before. Each of the previous three instances came before the PGA Championship.

Those wins came in 2002 (Tiger finished second at the PGA), 2007 (won) and 2009 (second).

Does a blowout win mean anything different? Woods has won on the PGA Tour the week before a major by six or more shots one other time in his career -- the 2007 WGC-Bridgestone. Tiger went on to win the PGA Championship the following week, his sole major win of the 2007 season.

Will Tiger catch Jack?
It's not that Tiger hasn't been close recently in the major championships. Woods is one of only three players to make the cut in each of the past seven majors -- Adam Scott and Jason Dufner are the other two. Woods has nine top-six finishes in majors since his 2008 U.S. Open title -- the most such finishes of anyone in the game.

Even with Woods' current major slump, he is still on Jack Nicklaus' record pace. Exactly on it.

Entering the 1977 PGA Championship, Nicklaus was 37 years old and had won 14 majors in 63 starts as a pro.

Woods is 37 and has won 14 majors in 63 starts as a pro.

Nicklaus' 15th major win came at the 1978 Open Championship -- Jack was 38 and making his 67th major start as a professional. Meaning Woods could go winless through next summer's U.S. Open and still be on Nicklaus' pace.

Woods, of course, needs five more major wins to break Nicklaus' mark. Only one player has won that many majors after turning 37 -- Ben Hogan, with six.

And what about the current dry spell in major titles for Tiger? There is historic precedent there, but it was ended by maybe the most remarkable Masters title of all time.

There are seven players who have won seven or more majors since the inception of the Masters in 1934. Woods has played in 17 majors since his last win.

The largest gap between major titles for any of those men was 20 starts -- made by Nicklaus between his final two wins, the 1980 PGA and the 1986 Masters. Tiger's gap of 17 (and counting) is second on the list. Gary Player is third with 15.

And Woods will have plenty of opportunities at familiar courses in the next few years, as well. After this week, he will have eight more majors before his 40th birthday. At four of those seven venues -- Augusta (twice), Royal Liverpool, Valhalla and St. Andrews -- Woods has combined to win eight major titles on those courses.

Whether or not he wins No. 15 Sunday probably will depend on his putting in Rounds 3 and 4.

Each week of the season, our experts share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone CC (South) in Akron, Ohio.

Horse for the Course

Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Bubba Watson. In the three times he's played Firestone, he's gotten better every year. Last year, he finished tied for 19th, but, the way he's been playing lately, I expect a big jump this year. At worst, he should be in the top 10; at best, he'll be top four.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Tiger Woods. The 14-time major champion has seven wins at Firestone, but it's been four years since his last victory on the South Course. That win in 2009 was Tiger's 70th career PGA Tour title.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Tiger Woods. Despite some recent struggles at Firestone, Woods still has seven victories at the venue and three other top-10 finishes.

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Birdie Buster

Collins: Adam Scott. In 10 starts at the Bridgestone, Scott has only one finish better than ninth! A remarkable stat when you think about it. Now two years out from his win here and a couple of weeks from a nice performance at the Open Championship, the Masters champ will find a top-10 finish.

Evans: Henrik Stenson. The 37-year-old Swede hasn't won in 2013, but he has three second-place finishes, including one at the Open Championship at Muirfield. This is his first appearance at Firestone since 2010, when he finished 80th. His best showing here was a tie for 13th in '05.

Harig: Brandt Snedeker. Just like earlier in the year, Snedeker is healthy and on a roll, having tied for 11th at the Open followed by his victory in Canada, his second of the year on the PGA Tour.

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Super Sleeper

Collins: Paul Casey. He hasn't teed it up at Firestone since 2011, but Casey is playing a solid stretch of golf, including a win at the Irish Open a few weeks ago. As well as he's been playing on the European Tour this year, getting a top-five finish in the U.S. will be the spur to get him back on the PGA Tour full time.

Evans: Jim Furyk. The 2003 U.S. Open champion hasn't won on tour since 2010, when he took three events and the FedEx Cup playoffs. In 2013, he has missed the cut at Merion and Muirfield. But he did rebound last week with a tie for ninth at the RBC Canadian Open. Last year, the 16-time winner had a tie for second at Firestone. Furyk will be looking for redemption this week after handing the 2012 tournament to Keegan Bradley with a double-bogey on the 72nd hole.

Harig: Paul Casey. The Englishman recently won the Irish Open but wasn't eligible for the Open Championship. He's still a bit under the radar, but a victory would be another huge step in his return to prominence.

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Winner

Collins: Tiger Woods. If I really need to explain to you why Tiger is going to win this week, just go back and check three of the venues he won at earlier this year -- Torrey Pines, Doral and Bay Hill. Getting his eighth win at Firestone will be a breeze.

Evans: Dustin Johnson. The mellow 29-year-old long-hitter nearly won in Canada. In January, he took the season-opening Hyundai Tournament of Champions. That must seem to him like a million years ago. It's time for him to win again.

Harig: Rory McIlroy. As crazy as it sounds, this is the tournament where McIlroy got things turned around a year ago. He likes Firestone and has had plenty of time for reflection of late. It's time Rory got his year turned around.