Colonial experts' picks

May, 22, 2012
May 22
1:26
PM ET
Each week of the season, our experts will share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: The Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial.

Horse for the Course


Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Bo Van Pelt
Van Pelt defines that title at this course. He has never missed a cut here and has been playing Colonial since 2007. After a seventh-place finish at The Players Championship, he's playing well and coming in rested.

Richard Durrett, ESPNDallas.com writer: David Toms
He's the defending champion, but he always plays well at Colonial. He has seven top-20 finishes in 14 consecutive appearances on the tight course. He's second on tour in fairways hit, a critical stat at Colonial.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Corey Pavin
The 15-time PGA Tour winner is now a full-time Champions Tour player, but it's hard to discount the 52-year-old at Colonial, where he is a two-time winner.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Jim Furyk
This will be Furyk's 17th time teeing it up in the tournament, and he has six top-10s. This will be his eighth consecutive appearance.

Kevin Maguire, ESPN.com senior golf editor: Zach Johnson
At the par-70 Colonial Country Club, Johnson's scoring average the past three years (12 rounds) is 66.58. His worst finish during that span? A T-9 in 2010. Colonial's narrow fairways were made for an accurate ball striker like the 2008 Masters champ.


Birdie Buster


Michael Collins: Rickie Fowler
One stat that jumped out about Fowler was his total driving rank: seventh. At a place like Colonial, where it's not about driving it long but driving it in the fairway, the maturity of this 23-year-old will shine. He knows how to "play" his way around a course.

Richard Durrett: Bo Van Pelt
He has 11 straight rounds in the 60s at the par-70 course and knows his way around it. He's made eight starts at Colonial and has reached the weekend every time.

Farrell Evans: Rickie Fowler
Jason Dufner is playing just as good as Fowler right now, but it's tough mentally to play well the week after winning. Fowler took off last week after a tie for second at The Players. He's ready to continue this week with the most consistent stretch of golf of his young career.

Bob Harig: Rickie Fowler
He heads into the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial having posted three straight top-10s, including a victory at the Wells Fargo Championship and a runner-up finish at The Players Championship. He tied for 16th at Colonial last year.

Kevin Maguire: Ryan Moore
After Moore narrowly missed out on one of those eight spots in the British Open qualifier on Monday, expect him to ride his strong recent play -- including two top-10s in his past three starts -- to a high finish at Colonial.


Super Sleeper


Michael Collins: Kris Blanks
His ranks of 145th in distance but 25th in accuracy are all you need to know. Give him a short, tight, tough course and back up. Coming off a missed cut at the Byron Nelson and a tie for 10th last year at this event should tell you he's hungry and champing at the bit to get back on the tee.

Richard Durrett: Charlie Wi
I know he hasn't had a great season, but Wi does have two top-four finishes and was runner-up a year ago at Colonial.

Farrell Evans: Dicky Pride
No one expected the 42-year-old journeyman with one career win to be on the leaderboard last week at the Byron Nelson. The former Alabama star is playing the best golf of his 20-year professional career. Pride will surprise more people this week on a Colonial course that his game suits perfectly.

Bob Harig: Harris English
He's never played the Colonial, but this PGA Tour rookie has some good karma going after Monday's performance at the nearby British Open qualifier -- where he carded an opening-round 60 and cruised to medalist honors by shooting 123 over 36 holes.

Kevin Maguire: Dicky Pride
After his second-place finish last week at the Byron Nelson Championship netted him $702,000, Pride locked up his PGA Tour card for 2013. So the definition of PGA Tour journeyman is officially playing with house money for the rest of the year starting this week at Colonial.


Winner


Michael Collins: Jason Dufner
Aka I'll Have Another -- I bet he'll say, "I should've gotten married years ago if I'd have known this was gonna happen!" But it's not all smoke and mirrors with Dufner. He ranks fourth in total driving and 12th in scoring average. Looks like he hasn't just cracked the victory seal, but he might have blown the cover clear off!

Richard Durrett: Zach Johnson
His game sets up nicely for Colonial, and he has two runner-ups in his past three events, including The Players Championship. Colonial is a shot-maker's course, and Johnson has the shots to get it done.

Farrell Evans: Zach Johnson

The 2007 Masters champion has two second-place finishes in his past three starts, including a tie for second at The Players. His last tour win came at Colonial two years ago, when he shot 64-64 on the weekend.

Bob Harig: Zach Johnson
The 2007 Masters champ has been playing well of late, with a runner-up finish at The Players Championship as well as the RBC Heritage. He's had three straight top-10s at Colonial and won the tournament in 2010. Seems like a good time for another Johnson victory.

Kevin Maguire: Hunter Mahan
His record at Hogan's Alley isn't the best (three missed cuts in his past five starts), but the 2012 Mahan isn't the version we've seen in years past. He's seventh on tour in driving accuracy, which bodes well for this week, when he's basically playing a home game.

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On Sunday, one of the most accomplished golfers of all time would have turned 100 years old: Sam Snead, the PGA Tour's career leader in victories (82), a seven-time major champion and a four-time Vardon Trophy winner, and recipient of the PGA Tour's lifetime achievement award in 1998.

Trivia question

Who is the only player to win the Colonial in back-to-back years? (Answer below)

Snead, who died in 2002, just a few days shy of his 90th birthday, generated an array of numbers that are scattered throughout the PGA Tour's record books. We at Numbers Game thought it appropriate, as Slammin' Sammy hits the century mark, to revisit some of the most impressive of those figures.

Let's start with Snead's biggest mark on the tour's records.

82: When Phil Mickelson won at Pebble Beach earlier this year, he moved into ninth on the PGA Tour's all-time list with 40 victories. Lefty isn't even halfway to Snead's 82 career wins.

It's basically irrefutable that Snead played in an era with weaker fields than today, but 82 victories is still an unbelievable number. And Snead wasn't playing against all stiffs -- he competed against greats like Ben Hogan (who also would have turned 100 this year) and Cary Middlecoff, just to name a couple.

8: No other event contributed to those 82 career wins more than the Greater Greensboro Open, a tournament Snead won eight times in his career. No player has ever won an event more frequently in PGA Tour history.

However, Tiger Woods is hot on his tail in that regard. Woods has won two events -- the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational -- seven times each. No other player has won an event seven times in his PGA Tour career.

52: Snead's final career win on tour came, appropriately, at Greensboro in 1965. At 52 years, 10 months, Snead became the oldest winner in PGA Tour history. That's a record that still stands.

69.23: Snead's 1950 PGA Tour season was one of the most sensational in the history of the sport. Not only did he win 11 times, he finished second in five more events, and in the top 10 a remarkable 22 times in 25 starts.

The most impressive number associated with his season, though, was 69.23 -- his then-record-setting scoring average that year. His Vardon Trophy-winning, non-adjusted scoring average was a PGA Tour record, and remained that way until 2000, when it was broken by Woods (68.17).

4: Snead wound up with seven career major championships -- a number surpassed by only six players in the history of the sport. But the one major that eluded Snead was the U.S. Open, which he finished second in four times. Only Mickelson, who now has five runner-up finishes at the U.S. Open, has more.

It's remarkable to think that three of the best players in the history of the sport were all born in 1912: Snead (May 27), Hogan (Aug. 13) and Byron Nelson (Feb. 4). A century later, their respective legacies can be seen across the sport.


Three on the tee this week examines the storybook finish that wasn't, the now-two-time winner who generated the plot twist, and a DFW-area resident looking to change his fortunes at Colonial this week. The Numbers Game starter calls to the tee:

Dicky Pride: Basically everything about this storyline seemed to come from a movie script (including the lead character's name). The journeyman player, having not won in almost two decades, makes an improbable par to force a playoff, en route to getting back into the winner's circle.

Unfortunately for Pride, Jason Dufner nailed a dramatic 25-foot birdie putt to seal the victory Sunday at the HP Byron Nelson Championship, rewriting the script that could have been.

Had Pride won last week, it would have been his first PGA Tour victory since the 1994 St. Jude Classic. The span of 17 years, 9 months between wins would have broken the PGA Tour record (currently it's 15 years, 9 months by Robert Gamez).

Consider this: Pride's last win came about a month before Woods took his first class at Stanford. Reigning U.S. Open champion Rory McIlroy was 5 years old, and Greg Norman was the No. 1 player on the planet.

Speaking of the man who did win on Sunday …

Jason Dufner: From 2004 through mid-April of this year, Dufner made 163 starts on the PGA Tour without picking up a victory. In the last month, he's started three events, and won twice. And to quote a quick-witted Twitter follower from Sunday (@ufchomp), "If you've seen his wife [Jason's recently married], it's three wins."

Trivia answer

Question: Who is the only player to win the Colonial in back-to-back years?

Answer: Ben Hogan did it twice in 1946-47 and 1952-53.

Dufner's recent success can be largely accredited to his fantastic ball-striking: He led the field in greens in regulation at the Byron Nelson, and was second in driving accuracy. Dufner currently sits in the top 10 on tour in total driving, ball-striking, driving accuracy and par-5 scoring average.

Though Dufner is one of the hottest players on Earth right now, there are some reasons to suspect his great play might not continue this weekend. Dufner has never had consecutive top-5 finishes in his PGA Tour career, and in three starts at this event, he has two missed cuts and a T-54 finish.

Hunter Mahan: There's now company for Mahan in the multiple-wins club this year on the PGA Tour. The world's sixth-ranked player enjoys a relative home game this week (he resides in the Dallas-Fort Worth area).

Mahan turned 30 on Thursday, removing him from the ranks of "best PGA Tour players in their 20s." Mahan was tied for second on that list with four victories before last week, trailing only Dustin Johnson with five. Sean O'Hair and Bill Haas also have four wins -- and currently maintain their sub-30 age status (not for long, though, in Haas' case; he turns 30 on Wednesday).

Mahan could be due for a good finish this week -- he's carded rounds of par or better in nine of his past 10 rounds in this event, and had his best career finish (T-10) here last year.

Justin Ray is a senior researcher with ESPN Stats & Information. He has contributed to ESPN's golf coverage since joining the network out of college in 2008. He is based in Austin, Texas, with the Longhorn Network. Send comments and suggestions to Justin.Ray@espn.com.

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Each week of the season, our experts will share their insights into which players fit the criteria for our four categories: Horse for the Course (a golfer who knows the track inside and out), Birdie Buster (a guy who could take it low this week), Super Sleeper (a player who could unexpectedly contend) and Winner.

This week's tournament: The HP Byron Nelson Championship.

Horse for the Course


Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Jason Day
Let's see here ... he's played the event twice. He won two years ago and finished fifth last year. I'd say that qualifies as a "horse," but this year we might have to put an asterisk by his name as wife Ellie is about to give birth to the couple's first child at any moment. And since neither know the sex of the child, if she goes into labor and he misses the birth ... let's just say sleeping on the sofa is never good for a golfer's back!

Richard Durrett, ESPN Dallas.com writer: Jeff Overton
I'm betting this is a popular pick this week. He was tied for second in 2010 and tied for eighth in 2011. He's played well in 2012 and is primed to have a good week.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Jeff Overton
The 28-year-old Indiana grad had a T-2 at the Nelson in 2010 and a T-8 last year.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Phil Mickelson
Perhaps a mystery that he's played the event too infrequently of late. This is his first appearance since 2007, when he tied for third. He won the tournament in 1996 and has six top-15 appearances in the event.

Kevin Maguire, ESPN.com senior golf editor: Jeff Overton
The former U.S. Ryder Cupper had only four top-10s last year, but one of them came at the TPC Four Seasons Resort course, host of this week's tournament. Toss in his T-2 in 2010 and the Hoosier knows how to get around this track.


Birdie Buster


Michael Collins: Robert Garrigus
He's going to be the man to watch if you want to see some big drives. But he also ranks eight in greens in regulation, which will be a big help this week. If he and Dr. Evil (his putter) can find a way to come to an understanding on the tricky greens of the TPC Four Seasons Resort, he'll have a big week.

Richard Durrett: Phil Mickelson
Lefty is always capable of going low. And while he hasn't played the TPC Four Seasons since 2007, he went 66-65 on the weekend that year to finish tied for third, and he has a gaggle of low rounds in his career at the tournament.

Farrell Evans: Carl Pettersson
The Swede got his fourth top-10 last week at The Players with a tie for 10th. The former North Carolina State star has cooled off some since he got a second and a win in back-to-back weeks in April, but his game is still on the upswing.

Bob Harig: Matt Kuchar
He's coming off the biggest victory of his career at The Players Championship, so celebratory hangover and motivation could be an issue. But Kuchar is obviously playing well, and has been all year. And he tied for sixth at the Nelson last year.

Kevin Maguire: Blake Adams
He's missed more cuts (8) than he's made (7) so far this season, but good old country boy Adams played great at TPC Sawgrass last week and owns at T-2 finish at the Nelson in 2010.


Super Sleeper


Michael Collins: Arjun Atwal
You ever have one of those courses that no matter how bad you were playing coming in, you just feel better driving into the parking lot and know everything is going to be OK? This is that course for Arjun. In 13 starts this year, he's made a total of two cuts, but he's finished top-10 at this place the last two years and that "good vibe" will continue for him this week.

Richard Durrett: Brian Gay
He has made the cut three of his last four Nelsons, and in all three of those he finished tied for 14th or better. He was tied for second in 2010 after a final-round 63. He likes the course.

Farrell Evans: David Mathis
The 38-year-old journeyman has missed 11 of 15 cuts in 2012, but he had a tie for 15th last week at The Players. A two-time winner on the Nationwide Tour, the former Campbell University star had missed 10 of his first 12 cuts before getting a T-10 in New Orleans.

Bob Harig: Carl Pettersson
The winner of the RBC Heritage last month quietly had a tie for 10th at The Players and shot under 70 in both weekend rounds at the TPC Sawgrass.

Kevin Maguire: Patrick Reed
Think Q-school is hard? Try earning PGA Tour status via Monday qualifying. That's what the former All-American Reed has done his last two starts, and he made the cut both times. He also qualified Monday for this week's HP Byron Nelson Championship, taking medalist honors with a 64 to beat the field by three shots. Talk about earning his stripes.


Winner


Michael Collins: Jason Dufner
Feel the excitement level go to a 2½! Well, for Duff that's about as high as it goes. Look for him to get his second win of 2012 at a course where he finished tied for eighth last year (and hadn't played it since 2007). This course takes a man with his attitude to conquer.

Richard Durrett: Adam Scott
It's difficult not to bet on him this week. He's playing well, putting well (and you need a good putter on those tricky greens) and won the tournament in 2008, just after they made the course changes.

Farrell Evans: Phil Mickelson
Lefty wouldn't admit it, but he was tired last week at Sawgrass following his induction into the World Golf Hall of Fame. His fatigue showed as he faded on Sunday with a 73. But his battery will be recharged this week as he tries to get his second Byron Nelson title.

Bob Harig: Adam Scott
His appearances have been rare this year on the PGA Tour, but he did tie for 15th at The Players and won the Nelson in 2008. Scott hasn't won since the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational last August but is set to embark on a busy schedule.

Kevin Maguire: Phil Mickelson
He hasn't played this tournament since 2007, but wouldn't a Lefty win not only rejuvenate this event but also prove that his Hall of Fame induction last week was a bit too soon?

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Rickie Fowler nearly accomplished something Sunday at TPC Sawgrass that has not been done since 1997.

Trivia question

Who is the only player to win both The Players Championship and the Byron Nelson Championship multiple times each? (Answer below)

Had Fowler picked up the victory at The Players Championship, he would have been the first golfer since David Duval to get his first two career PGA Tour wins in consecutive weeks.

Fowler's T-2 showing at TPC Sawgrass was his fifth career runner-up finish on tour. He moved to sixth on the money list, seventh in Ryder Cup points and eighth in the FedEx Cup standings. His résumé is building by the week, and he's likely going to be one of the most talked-about names leading up to this year's U.S. Open at Olympic Club.

Now if only this kid could putt.

All this success, and Fowler is 126th on the PGA Tour this year in strokes gained--putting. At Sawgrass, Fowler missed 11 putts inside 10 feet, and was just 4-for-21 on putts from 10-20 feet.

His season putting marks aren't good either, regardless of how you slice it. Fowler is tied for 91st on tour in putts inside 10 feet. From 10-15 feet, he's outside the top 120. From 15-20 feet, he's tied for 168th. Yikes.

And we at Numbers Game aren't condemning Fowler -- on the contrary -- we're thinking about what could be should these numbers improve. Fowler has eight career finishes of fourth or better in his PGA Tour career. In seven of them, he gained at least 0.6 strokes per round on the field putting.

And Saturday, when Fowler fired a 66 to surge up the leaderboard, his flatstick was true: zero 3-putts, 2.14 strokes gained on the field, and 16-for-17 on putts inside 10 feet. Fowler seems to be one club away from seeing his career really take off.


"Three on the tee" this week examines the new world No. 5 golfer, a player finding his game and a streak that might never be approached again. The Numbers Game starter calls to the tee:

Matt Kuchar: He has as many top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour since 2010 (25) as anybody else on the circuit (tied with Luke Donald for the most in that span). He's been in the top 25 on tour in birdie average for three straight years. So before last week at TPC Sawgrass, how had Kuchar won just twice on the PGA Tour since October 2009?

We at Numbers Game suppose his final-round scoring average has had something to do with it. In 2011, Kuchar ranked fourth on the tour in overall scoring average. In fourth-round scoring average? Tied for 37th.

"Final round performance" measures how often a player improved his position on the leaderboard in the final round. In 2010, when Kuchar led the tour's money list, he was eighth in the statistic. In 2011 and 2012, he's been outside the top 75.

So will Sunday's performance help Kuchar shake that Sunday stigma? Almost everything Kuchar did in the final round at Sawgrass points to yes. He hit his last 13 greens in regulation, hit eight of his last 10 fairways, and had just a single 3-putt (at 17) on Sunday.

Jhonattan Vegas: Last week, he rung up his first top-10 finish of 2012. One of the biggest reasons? Vegas made 91.0 percent of his putts inside 10 feet -- his best performance over the course of a tournament as a PGA Tour professional. Vegas' 20 holes at better than par were also the most he's recorded in a tournament this year.

In each of his last three starts, Vegas has hit at least 65 percent of his greens in regulation. If Vegas wishes to improve on last week's T-7 finish at Sawgrass, he'll likely need to exceed that number again. In each of his four top-10 finishes on tour, he's hit at least that many greens in regulation. Vegas will be playing about four hours from his old collegiate stomping grounds at the University of Texas at this week's HP Byron Nelson Championship.

Byron Nelson: This week's tournament namesake would have turned 100 on Feb. 4, 2012. We could go another 100 years without seeing anyone come close to approaching a record he set in 1945.

From March to August of that year, Nelson went on a streak that anyone throughout the annals of sports will be hard-pressed to ever replicate. Nelson won an amazing 11 straight tournaments, starting with the Miami Four Ball and ending with the Canadian Open.

Trivia answer

Question: Who is the only player to win both The Players Championship and the Byron Nelson Championship multiple times each?

Answer: Jack Nicklaus (The Players -- 1974, '76, '78; The Nelson --1970, '71)

In the nearly 70 years since then, only two players have even gotten halfway to Nelson's 11 straight victories: Tiger Woods (who has streaks of six and seven straight in his career) and Ben Hogan, who won six tournaments in a row in 1948. Put it into this perspective: since Joe DiMaggio's MLB-record 56-game hit streak in 1941, there have been 28 hit streaks of at least 30 games.

Nelson captured 18 tournaments in all that year, five more than any other player has won in single season (13 by Hogan in 1946) in PGA Tour history.

Justin Ray is a senior researcher with ESPN Stats & Information. He has contributed to ESPN's golf coverage since joining the network out of college in 2008. He is based in Austin, Texas, with the Longhorn Network. Send comments and suggestions to Justin.Ray@espn.com.

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PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. -- Ian Poulter shot a 7-under par 65 on Thursday to take the first-round lead with all of the afternoon groups still on the golf course. The 36-year-old Englishman had eight birdies and a bogey. In 2011, Poulter attributed his poor play to the stress brought about by acting as the project manager for his new multimillion dollar home at Lake Nona in Orlando. He has personally overseen every detail of the project from the basic design to the furnishings to the bathroom and kitchen fixtures.

"I'm not a moving freak. I just like nice things," Poulter said. "So I guess, you know, you upgrade things as you go along. But this one being a big one and being a stressful one: two years and nine months is abnormally long to build a house.

"I could write a book. There were a lot of interesting hiccups along the way, but I'm glad to say they are all behind me, and we are going to spend that first night in there on Sunday."

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Ian Poulter
AP Photo/John RaouxIn his past two PGA Tour starts, Ian Poulter has finished seventh at the Masters and third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Last year, Poulter missed the cut at half of his 12 PGA Tour events and had just two top-10s. The always impeccably dressed former Accenture Match Play champion, who was once thought to be a strong contender at the majors, missed the cut in 2011 at both the U.S. Open and the Open Championship. After his win last May at the Volvo World Match Play Championship, he had only one top-10 in the remainder of the year at the UBS Hong Kong Open, where he finished fourth.

At the beginning of the 2012 season, he made a vow to refocus his efforts on the golf course. Based on his seventh-place finish at the Masters, he appears to have rededicated himself to the game.

On Thursday, Poulter had 21 putts -- including nine one-putts.

"I hit a lot of good shots and then missed a couple of the greens just by a tiny bit, so you would expect to get those up and down," Poulter said. "But I had no idea that the run was nine single putts in a row.

"You know, if you've got your eye in these greens and you do start it online, you should expect a ball certainly from 20 feet and in to go in. I mean they are absolutely perfect."

Poulter might finally be clearheaded enough to bring that exacting attention for detail to his golf game. Over the next three days, the Stadium Course will certainly force him to use those skills.

Farrell Evans covers golf for ESPN and can be contacted at evans.espn@gmail.com.

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PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. -- Driving the 65 mph speed limit up I-95, it should take about two hours to drive from Orlando to TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach.

Greg Owen, however, kicked his car into another gear after the PGA Tour called him around midmorning to say he had been bumped up to first alternate when Brian Harman wasn't able to get to the tee in time to replace D.A. Points, who withdrew just before his 8:39 a.m. tee time.

"I didn't know what was really going on," Owen said. "I was just trying to get here as fast as possible. I wasn't expecting to get in as a second alternate."

Ultimately, Harman was allowed into the field due to extenuating circumstances and was sent out as a single, but Owen didn't get into the field because there were no withdrawals in the afternoon.

"I'll just get in my car now and head back to Orlando," Owen said at about 2:45 p.m. ET. "I'm playing four [upcoming tournaments] in a row, so I have plenty of golf."

Still, that's a pretty long day to not hit a single shot.

Farrell Evans covers golf for ESPN and can be contacted at evans.espn@gmail.com.

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. -- Tiger Woods complained about a spectator using a camera phone that clicked at the middle of his backswing on the third hole as he attempted to play a chip shot. Although it was a difficult shot to pull off, Woods lamented the difficulties for all players. "We do that every week out here," Woods said. "Now the cameras are loud, people just don't put it on silent. Guys were backing off, they got Hunter [Mahan] a couple times today and Rickie [Fowler] once, I believe."

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Tiger Woods
Mike Ehrmann/Getty ImagesFans at TPC Sawgrass were taking photos of players during the round, causing several to step away from shots as they were about to hit. Although spectators are now allowed to bring phones to tournaments, they aren't allowed to shoot photos or videos.

The PGA Tour allows cell phones at tournament sites but does not allow photography or video during tournament rounds, although it is nearly impossible to enforce.

Volunteers are constantly telling spectators to put away their phones or reminding them that they can't take photos or shoot video. Good luck with that.

"The bigger the galleries are, obviously the more people you have, and now where these people can use them ... we don't mind it, just put it on silent," Woods said. "It's not that hard. But they don't. It can cost guys tournaments, because a shot on Thursday is the same as a shot on Sunday. So it's one of the difficult things about it."

Bob Harig covers golf for ESPN.com. He can be reached at BobHarig@gmail.com.

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