Commentary

Top 25 Open Championship rankings

Originally Published: July 18, 2012

LYTHAM ST. ANNES, England -- I know most weeks I do "expert picks," but for the big ones I enjoy giving more people a chance to call me an idiot (notice I put expert in quotes).

So once again, I am not just picking the top 5, not the top 10, but the top 25 finishers in this year's Open Championship.

Yes, there are a couple of head scratchers in there, but how many majors in the past few years didn't have winners who were head scratchers? And before you write it, please stop asking ESPN why they're paying me. They're not, someone really high up lost a bet and they are just paying off the loss.

Enjoy.

Player	Analysis	Best finish
1. Lee Westwood	Say you don't care enough times and people might start to believe you. Try saying that Saturday night in the news conference when you have to go out Sunday and win that first major, and it might not be as easy a sell as before. I do think Westwood will win this coming from somewhere other than the final group on Sunday, which is why his major curse will come to a glorious ending and might put his country into an early Olympic-like celebration.	2nd, 2010
2. Tiger Woods	There is nothing I can write here that hasn't already been written. I will say the one record of Nicklaus' he doesn't want to overtake is his runner-up finishes. Unfortunately, this week he's going to gain on that number, as the most recognizable athlete in the world will fall just short.	Win, 2000, 2005, 2006
3. Adam Scott	Seems we haven't seen much of him this year as he's only played in nine events on the PGA Tour and one event on the European Tour. Playing that little hasn't changed his game all that much: eighth at the Masters, 15th at the U.S. Open and third in his last start at the AT&T National. Knowing his game is there, the question becomes how hungry is he to get his first major having played so little? My answer is close but not quite enough.	T-8, 2006
4. Graeme McDowell	Ranked second this year on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, he's been able to manage only 66 percent of GIRs. Now, on the European Tour so far this year, he's hitting almost 73 percent of GIRs. What that will translate into this week is a strong showing and a top-5 finish for the Northern Irishman.	T-11, 2005
5. Louis Oosthuizen	On the European Tour he ranks first in three major categories: scrambling, GIRs, and stroke average. He already owns two wins on the European Tour this year and finished 15th last week in Scotland. To say his game is "on" right now would be a gross understatement.	Win, 2010
6. Phil Mickelson	Well, it almost worked last year coming to play in the Scottish Open the week before the Open Championship. In 2011 at Royal St. George's, Lefty was magical on the front nine Sunday. Of course, we also remember the crash and burn that was the back nine, but I think the lesson was learned. And as bad as he played leading up to the Scottish Open, on Friday and Saturday his game seemed to come back to him. That will continue this week.	T-2, 2011
7. Justin Rose	He's leading the way in the Race to Dubai on the European Tour and ranked 11th on the PGA Tour money list. If he wins both money titles, he'll accomplish something that only one other golfer has achieved (Luke Donald last year). The way he's doing it? Greens in regulation. He's at 70 percent on the PGA Tour almost 74 percent on the European Tour.	T-4, 1998
8. Peter Hanson	The Swede is my sleeper pick this week. In 12 events, he's made 10 cuts with five top-5s. He's ranked 11th in the Race to Dubai, and there's only one thing he does particularly well: This year he's averaging 28.6 putts per round, and on a tour that plays in a bunch of bad weather, that tells me that he can putt well in all conditions.	T-29, 2009
9. Francesco Molinari	Ranked second in the Race to Dubai, he's got seven top-10s so far this year, including back-to-back second-place finishes in the two weeks leading up to this major. He hasn't missed a cut all year and is hitting 79 percent of his GIRs. The only thing that gives me pause with him is the fact that this will be his fourth tournament in a row, and I wonder how much gas is left in the tank.	T-13, 2009
10. Ian Poulter	Since his 2008 second-place finish at Royal Birkdale, he's missed two of the past three Open cuts. Nonetheless, this man is the ultimate scrapper when it comes to his game. It's that feistiness that will get him a strong finish this week and signal the return to prominence of the wild pants and outfits.	2nd, 2008
11. Nicolas Colsaerts	Yes, he ranks only 85th in driving accuracy this year on the European tour, but he ranks first in distance and he's eighth on the money list -- also called the Race to Dubai. He's also just over 75 percent in GIRs, and this week that will play huge. The question for Colsaerts: Can he keep it in the fairway?	MC, 2004
12. Jason Dufner	I don't even think the rains of England can put out the fire that has become the Duff. In his past five, starts he has two wins, a second and a tie for fourth at the U.S. Open. If he was playing in a hurricane on a 27,000-yard, par-72 course, I'd still pick him to be in the top 15 and I won't be too surprised if he makes a liar out of me and finishes inside the top 10 this week.	MC, 2010 & 2011
13. Martin Kaymer	A tie for 15th at this year's U.S. Open speaks volumes for the guy who, when he won the PGA Championship, most non-hard-core golf fans said, "Who?" It's still hard to believe when you see him play that he's only 27 because he plays with such maturity on the golf course. Even though he's German, it's a South African that he reminds me of: Retief Goosen.	T-7, 2010
14. Charl Schwartzel	The former Masters champion seems to always have his name somewhere on the leaderboard on the weekends at major championships. This year, in 14 events worldwide, he's missed three cuts. The only thing a bit scary when I put him here at 14th was we haven't seen him since his tie for 38th at the U.S. Open. But I'm thinking that means he'll be very well rested and hopefully 100 percent healthy.	T-14, 2010
15. Rickie Fowler	Whether you like orange or not, you better start getting used to seeing it. Fowler is becoming one of the more consistent golfers on the PGA Tour, making 14 out of 16 cuts with five top-10s. After his performance in last year's Open, people should have learned he is not afraid of the big stage or changing weather conditions. Just know that his rain suit is not going to look like anyone else's.	T-5, 2011
16. Rory McIlroy	Seems like the "honeymoon" phase with the girlfriend is over and McIlroy has gotten back to work. Last time we saw him stateside he was missing the cut at the U.S. Open, shooting 10 over. But his next tournament was the Irish Open, where he finished 10th. He's hitting almost 79 percent of his GIR's in Europe as opposed to 65 percent in the U.S., which should mean this week he'll be back on the course trying to get another major.	T-3, 2010
17. Branden Grace	Ranked fifth in the Race to Dubai, the South African doesn't do any one thing spectacular. He just does them all well. The stat that stuck out to me the most was his average putts per round (29.36). That means when you're hitting 71 percent of your greens in regulation, there aren't many 3-putts. A huge factor this week will be the conditions the players will be facing, at least for the first two rounds.	T-43, 2009
18. Matt Kuchar	Say what you want about Kooch, but what you can't question is his consistency: 14 out of 14 cuts made with 10 top-25s and six top-10s. He's ranked second in scoring average so far this year at 69.16 and he's a guy who won't make really bad mistakes on a golf course. That's exactly what will keep him inside the top 20 this week.	T-27, 2009
19. Paul Lawrie	The former Open champion from Scotland still has some game in his bag. He finished third at the Volvo Match Play and followed that up with a runner-up finish at the BMW PGA Championship. Yes, I know he missed the cut last week in Scotland, but knowing how hard it is to play a home game, this Open is just the place for this man to get his game back in order.	Win, 1999
20. Steve Stricker	Twelve starts, 11 cuts made (his only missed cut was at The Players Championship) and I believe not winning at the John Deere last week will benefit him. It's been a while since he was in contention at an Open Championship and his game is just coming back into form again. A win would have just thrown a monkey wrench into his game.	T-7, 2008
21. Zach Johnson	Coming off his win at the John Deere Classic last week, even though the finish was a bit … we'll call it "different" to be nice, overall he is still playing well. Coming straight here after his win means he isn't having to deal as much with the media and friends on the range stopping by to say congrats. That means he can stay in "work" mode.	T-16, 2011
22. Bo Van Pelt	He gave himself a week to lick his wounds after the crash and burn at AT&T, where he finished second to Tiger. But it won't change the fact that he's playing good golf coming into the week. He ranks seventh in strokes gained-putting on the PGA Tour, which means he adjusts quickly and easily to conditions on greens.	T-30, 2004
23. Padraig Harrington	Although his accuracy off the tee has been appalling, his greens in regulation -- at least on the European Tour this year -- has been just over 71 percent. Since we are playing in the U.K. this week, I'm going to go with those stats. Paddy has got to have a swing this week -- one swing. If he doesn't tinker during the tournament, he'll do just fine.	Win, 2007, 2008
24. Bill Haas	He came over five days early to get acclimated to the time, weather and food. He's been playing courses all over the area and has been killing it on the range, making one swing coach say he might be the man to beat this week. I won't go that far, but I see him having a strong showing regardless.	T-57, 2011
25. John Daly	Seeing him on the range striping it earlier this week and knowing he has his family in tow gives me reason to believe his good play will continue and he'll find a way to a top-25 at the Open Championship.	Win, 1995