Busting bad streaks in the boondocks
When a person who makes horse race picks on TV runs bad, there's no quick cure, no refreshing quart of beer to chug, no losers to survey for rotten selections, there's no place to hide.Pickers on TV have only to throw cold water on their faces and put on fake happy expressions and get back up there after their top picks runs last and start trying to sell what feels like another lemon. It's like the TV weather person coming back on the air after an unpredicted deluge with this expression: Flood, what flood? Bad picking streaks that center on the biggest thoroughbred races are hard to shake. A 10-1 prayer pick runs last. A favorite runs second in a photo. Now what? Handicapping beliefs become doubtful. Inside info sound iffy. And now let's go to our expert handicapper hitting his head on the rail. You're what? You're boxing five of them? Early in a bad streak, public pickers are prone toward becoming defensive. That's right, I might have missed the last nineteen predictions, but don't forget those two I hit in the spring of 2010. Public pickers find it difficult to take solace in the fact that they're providing a valuable service in tabbing losers, just about guaranteed. Being able to throw out a consensus pick of a race favorite from TV experts is golden. Horse race pickers who work in a print media have it much easier. They can cuss. They can hide. TV pickers on a bad streak have one of two choices. They can make fun of their misfortune. Or they can pretend that they have no memory of the most recent failed selection. Then, either way, they have to start picking favorites until something at 3-5 gets there by 20 lengths and the streak is, if not artistically broken, dented. Here is the best bad-streak buster I have ever seen: Going cheap. For some odd reason, many handicappers consider something like a turf race featuring ten horses that look exactly the same in the Daily Racing Form to be a "betting race." No solid favorite equals a "betting race." Four similar 5-1 horses says "betting race." Since when? That's a losing race that pays off on lucky number players. To me, a race that's impossible to handicap is more bad streak material.
Being able to throw out a consensus pick of a race favorite from TV experts is golden.