Better lucky than most alternatives

I have just come from a race during which it almost appeared that the jockey on the front-running favorite was trying to text somebody from the top of the stretch: Hi. How R U. I am winning the race. C U at the finish. Whoa. Wait. Here comes somebody.

The jockey seemed to fumble repeatedly with something around his stomach. In doing so, his horse drifted from the speedy rail toward the middle of the track. Upon further review, it was revealed that the rider had been switching hands with his whip, had juggled it and had almost dropped it. During the momentary miscalculation, the horse seemed confused about which front foot it was supposed to be leading with and lost some speed.

The one who had been plodding along in second place on the rail benefited from the break in the action up front and found itself in a fantastical place, in first.

Had the former leader been in a parade, it could have been stopped on a suspected DUI. It righted itself and took off once more for the wire. It didn't lose ground. It lost acreage. At the wire, the one riding the rail like a rabbit at a dog track won by a half a length and paid more than $20.

Two other events over the weekend took on similar trappings, the Giants beat San Francisco and New England beat Baltimore in the NFL.

Neither winner should have won.

Here's what Super Bowl host NBC just dodged, another round for the house on the peacock: San Fran versus Baltimore, final score, 10-9.

The Giants defeated San Francisco by virtue of two messed up kicks. What's as hard to believe is the fact that the SF player who had the two turnovers made a head-first diving fingertip catch of another kick that was ten times more difficult than the ones flubbed. Who knew the San Francisco defense was that good. It almost won a conference finals game without converting a third down, and without a wide receiver.

TV crowd favorite New England defeated Baltimore when a Ravens receiver went after what should have been a game-winning pass like it was Wedgewood China. After that, the field goal kicker duck-hooked one that resembled a shot on the driving range at a municipal golf course. The attempt barely stayed in the end zone. Why wasn't the late pass reviewed? It's obvious that the flag-happy refs have been told to stuff their whistles. But when the game is on the line, have a quick look Gramps, okay? Even though Brady is most accurate in the three- to six-yard range, New England has become America's team. It has been installed as an inexplicable three-and-a-half point favorite over the Giants. The only thing wrong with that is that so many love the Giants.

There's the tendency for anybody who had the $20-plus horse, or the Giants, or New England, to think that you outsmarted them all, that you won because of superior handicapping, that you were brilliant. Here's the way honest handicapping works. You should be able to envision, or predict, the way that the key moments of the contest will unroll. It's why they use those animated sequences on TV at all the big races. Seeing something unfold in your mind is handicapping. Who could predict that a jockey would fumble his equipment? That a receiver wouldn't hold on to a touchdown? That a ball would bounce off a shin? That a kicker would boomerang one?

How should a handicapper embrace great good luck?

I always like to acknowledge it, calling out loudly, thanks for the miracle. Also taking a little something from a lucky win and giving it to some poor children brings you back to a real place.

Write to Jay at jaycronley@yahoo.com.

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