Dumb money a plus for handicappers
It's pretty safe to say that Optimizer has virtually no chance to win the Kentucky Derby. He was beaten 20-plus lengths in the Arkansas Derby and has won only once in his career, in a grass maiden race last year at Saratoga. His chances of victory are probably in the 1-in-200 or -300 neighborhood.And come post time for the Derby, he will likely be about 40-1.
In The Gate Podcast
Pre-Derby interviews with 3-time winning jockey Calvin Borel (Take Charge Indy) & trainer Mike Maker (Hansen). Analysis by Bill Finley, plus a Barry Abrams commentary.
138th KENTUCKY DERBY
|No.||Horse||Finley Odds||Predicted Post Time Odds|
|8||Take Charge Indy||14-1||10-1|
|9||I'll Have Another||18-1||20-1|
|10||Went The Day Well||20-1||20-1|
|11||Daddy Long Legs||25-1||20-1|
|14||Daddy Nose Best||33-1||35-1|
NYSRWB makes the right moveWith racing getting hammered left and right for having too many horses break down and too much drug use, the New York State Racing and Wagering Board stepped in Monday and ordered that no purse can be more than double the claiming price. For example, $10,000 claimers can run for no more than $20,000. This is an attempt to reduce the rash of breakdowns in cheap races, in which bad horses have been running for huge purses. That has apparently motivated some trainers to run infirm horses hoping they can get a big payday out of their walking wounded. The problem is that no other racing commission in the East has taken the same step. Now those same cheap horses will flock to places like Parx Racing, where the claiming-value-to-purse ratio remains out of whack. That's only going to hurt New York racing fill fields. The NYSRWB has become a proactive group that is doing its best to help clean up the mess that is racing. But too many other racing commissions and commissioners just don't care. Racing leaders in West Virginia, Delaware and, particularly, Pennsylvania must follow suit. Bill Finley is an award-winning racing writer whose work has appeared in The New York Times, USA Today and Sports Illustrated. Contact him at email@example.com.
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