Commentary

A Kentucky Derby rundown

Updated: May 5, 2012, 3:09 AM ET
By Jay Cronley | Special to ESPN.com

Here's the one thing we know for sure, the post positions.

1. Daddy Long Legs, 30-1: Been nice knowing you.

2. Optimizer, 50-1: Mr. Lukas deserves better.

3. Take Charge Indy, 15-1: Locally adjusted odds for wood worker Borel.

4. Union Rags, 9-2: Start will determine finish. Owes me money.

5. Dullahan, 8-1: With three sorry Churchill finishes, why so short?

6. Bodemeister, 4-1: A chief element in determining what to do with your money in the Derby is deciding what to do with this one. One of the best trainers wouldn't want his son named for a cheap claimer, so this one has figured since birth. No horse since about 1492 has won this after grazing through his second year. None has been this good. Since you can't play them all, one plan here would be to play Bode with a bunch in the overnight Oaks double, then forget him Saturday.

7. Rousing Sermon, 50-1: Pass the hat.

8. Creative Cause, 12-1: Here's something interesting. Creative Cause, at 12-1, beat Bodemeister, at 4-1, and made him apologize for thinking he could win as he pulled away at the end.

9. Trinniberg, 50-1: Get the oxygen.

10. Daddy Nose Best, 15-1: Victory in the sticks impressed somebody.

11. Alpha, 15-1: Wasn't quite quick enough to get away from a first-turn mob scene in New York.

12. Prospective, 30-1: Covered the owners with great seats.

13. Went the Day Well, 20-1: Note the language, obviously from England.

14. Hansen, 10-1: No painted tail games this time. Pin the tail on the owner wouldn't be a bad one.

15. Gemologist, 6-1: Has been criticized for not winning them all by enough lengths or speed points.

16. El Padrino, 20-1: Rare triple-figure Beyer.

17. Done Talking, 50-1: Not as lousy as the odds suggest.

18. Sabercat, 30-1: Owners have closer parking.

19. I'll Have Another, 12-1: Make it a double.

20. Liason, 50-1: Where has everybody gone?

Picks

1. Union Rags
2. Creative Cause
3. Gemologist
4. El Padrino

Write to Jay at jaycronley@yahoo.com.