Commentary

Preakness pops

Updated: May 18, 2012, 11:15 PM ET
By Jay Cronley | Special to ESPN.com

There are how many thoroughbred horse races a day, 300?

And 5-1 pays the same at the edge of nowhere as it does on a coast, the difference in handicapping being that many of the 5-1 horses competing in the sticks belong in bed.

The point is, it's easy to move on, to forget the last one when somebody did the wrong thing, and hustle yourself to the point where fortunes even out, to get to where a three-way photo win offsets a rube ride.

So: What Derby picks?

Working for a reputable screen, it's a wise thing to stand up to your picks once in a while.

So these Derby picks: My top two horses were Union Rags and Creative Cause.

And here I am to face the flat notes, the music, the fortunate ones who didn't know that I'll Have Another meant cookies, not beer, the "handicappers" who bet $2 in contest money on the winner.

Union Rags was probably the best horse in the race.

All the jockey had to do was outbreak an elephant next door; didn't happen. I'm not the only one still mad 11 days later. The trainer is thinking about using another rider on Rags in New York.

Creative Cause could find trouble in a candy store.

He can't corner.

Here's your Preakness field by post position.

It's like Derby Lite.

1. Tiger Walk (30-1): Won two in Crab City.
2. Teeth of the Dog (15-1): Hair of the Dog would go off shorter.
3. Pretension (30-1): Cured maiden status with nifty 29 Beyer at Charles Town.
4. Zetterholm (20-1): Trounced four in N.Y.
5. Went the Day Well (6-1): Went the Derby late.
6. Creative Cause (6-1): Has been producing boring reruns.
7. Bodemeister (8-5): Hurry wire.
8. Daddy Nose Best (12-1): Daddy nose Sunland.
9. I'll Have Another (5-2): Sharp cookie.
10. Optimizer (30-1): Should have made a left and gone to Penn National.
11. Cozetti (30-1): Couldn't outrun me.

In the Derby, any of 900 things could have happened.

Here, one of two things can happen: Bodemeister will again get an uncontested lead and will last, or his legs will turn rubbery and somebody like the Derby winner will swoop him.

PICKS

1. Bodemeister
2. Creative Cause
3. I'll Have Another
4. Went the Day Well

Plan B

1. I'll Have Another to simply win the race.

Plan C

1. Creative Cause over: Bodemeister, I'll Have Another, Went the Day Well, Dog Teeth. (Creative Cause owes me a great deal of money).

Plan D

Penn National

Write to Jay at jaycronley@yahoo.com.