I'll Have Another a 20,000-1 shot?
I'll Have Another is a very good, talented and consistent colt and has chased away Bodemeister, the only horse that seems capable of giving him a fight. On the surface, he should be a heavy favorite to win the Belmont Stakes and break the Triple Crown drought that has been ongoing since 1978.Or should he? That 11 other horses have gone into the Belmont Stakes since '78 with a chance to win the Triple Crown and have all lost cannot possibly be a coincidence. In fact, the odds of all 11 losing are roughly 20,000-1. (An explanation of how I came up with that number appears at the end of the column.) Based on what he's done this year, I'll Have Another should be about 6-5 in the Belmont. Based on the recent history of the race, you can make the argument that he has no chance.
THE TRIPLE CROWN
• 'Lucky' ends Triple Crown bid in Preakness
• Desormeaux defends Derby stretch ride
• Eskendereya retired; Jess Jackson buys in
• Eskendereya cruises in the Wood Memorial
• Drosselmeyer's feet seem OK after work
• Belmont: First Dude could be one to catch