Rationally, it figures to be a long and unsuccessful day for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Spain couldn't handle Exogenous or Flute in the Beldame. Jump Start is no match for Officer. And Orientate? The Indiana Derby winner? You've got to be kidding.

	Lukas will run defending champion Spain in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

The problem is, rational thinking usually goes out the window when it comes to Lukas and big afternoons. The Hall of Fame trainer has won major events with so many downright screwy horses (Commendable, Cat Thief, Charismatic, Spain) that you can never count him out on the big days.

"Realistically, I think we probably go over there with a little better horse than people give us credit for and we're a little better prepared than people give us credit for," he said. "For these big events, we quietly get ready to compete. I'm not trying to boast, but we give our horses every chance to win.. It's like with basketball. I don't think you want to play Bobby Knight if he's had two weeks to prepare for the game. People are reluctant to run and expose themselves because they don't want their winning percentage to go down and look bad. That never enters into my thinking. We can run last and I won't be fazed a bit. I'll just wrack them up and come back next year."

One of his more surprising wins came in the 1999 Kentucky Derby, where Lukas pulled off a stunning upset with former claimer Charismatic. Lukas is not much of a bettor, but said he couldn't resist the chance to make a score on a horse who knew was about to run the race of his life.

"I backed him very strong," he said. "Huge. I had to get a shopping bag to get all that money out of there the next day."

Lukas said he tries to be realistic about his horses, but doesn't mind taking a shot.

"You have to be unbelievably optimistic to be in this game, but you have to let some reality creep into it, too," he said. "After all these years we know what it takes to win. We're not in a dream world like some of the guys who go over there thinking they can win but don't realize they don't have a realistic shot because they've never been there before."

Two of Lukas' Breeders' Cup starters belong. Spain is trying to win the Distaff for the second straight year and is coming off a creditable third-place finish in the Beldame. Jump Start is a Grade II stakes winner who managed to run second behind Officer in the Grade I Champagne. It is Orientate who looks ridiculously in over his head. In the Classic, he will face older horses who are more talented, more experienced and faster than he is. He's much more likely to be last than first. Lukas, of course, disagrees.

"This is a really nifty, gifted horse," he said. "I'd be foolish to say we were going to win it, but we will cause some trouble."

Orientate seems to have absolutely no chance, but this is Lukas we are talking about. Are any of his horses throw outs when the big money is on the line?

British Bookmakers like Sakhee
While Sakhee figures to be sent off at 6-1 or 7-1 in the Classic by a skeptical American betting public, the British punters have not lost faith in the European star, who is untested on the dirt. William Hill, a British bookmaking firm, has made Sakhee the 9-4 favorite in the race. Fellow European Galileo is next at 5-2. Aptitude, likely to be the post time favorite in the Classic is listed at 11-4.

But simple win bets are not good enough for the fun-loving British gambler. William Hill will pay off at 13-8 odds on Bobby Frankel having zero winners. You can get 225-1 on 2000 Breeders' Cup winners Kona Gold, Spain and Tiznow all repeating this year. Frankie Dettori and Victor Espinoza are co-favorites to win the most races on the day among the jockeys.

A popular cup for the seniors
This could be a Breeders' Cup for the aged. Sprint starter Bet On Sunshine is 9, Turf starter Chorwon is 8 and 7-year-olds Affirmed Success (Mile), Spook Express (Filly & Mare Turf) and Kona Gold (Sprint) are also entered.

"In our case, the owner never wants to run his horses as 2-year-olds," said Chorwon's trainer Hal Wiggins. "And he demands we give him at least 60 days off during the year. It doesn't matter when, but we've got to give them a two-month break. It's unusual, though. You don't see too many horses still around at 8 or 9, especially ones still running at the top level. There are some 8-year-olds out there, but most of them aren't the same class as when they were three or four. Our horse is doing very well now. His last two races were two of the best of his career and that's why we decided to run him in the Breeders' Cup."

Blinkers make a difference
It's amazing what something as small as a pair of blinkers can do for a horse. They've done wonders for both Aptitude and Exogenous, new horses each since getting the equipment change. Exogenous was, at best, a mid-level stakes horse before trainer Scotty Schulhofer gave her blinkers. Since then, she's 2-for-2 with wins in a pair of Grade I's, the Beldame and Gazelle. "They've made a big difference, a couple million dollars worth of difference," Exogenous' trainer Scotty Schulhofer said. Exogenous is listed as the second choice behind Flute in the morning line for the Distaff. Some, however, may be reluctant to wager on jockey Javier Castellano, who only recently came to New York from Calder and has never ridden in a Breeders' Cup race. It's not that Castellano is a bad jockey, but he lack the experience of a Jerry Bailey, Pat Day or Gary Stevens. That may mean he'll lack their nerves in a pressure packed situation like the Breeders' Cup. "That doesn't worry me," Schulhofer said. "He doesn't have that much experience but horses run for him and he has good judgment. He'll be one of New York's top riders in New York in a few years."