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Breeders' Cup picks
Jay Cronley
Special to ESPN.com

I am just off the telephone with somebody who requested the pleasure of my company in the following Breeders' Cup wagering opportunity.

The caller has concluded that the Juvenile, with a full field of 14 beginners, is the most difficult race of the day.

He'll get no argument from me with that deduction.

The Sprint is mesmerizing. The Filly and Mare Turf appears mystifying. The Classic looks like guess work.

But the Juvenile, with a yard full of two-year olds, a few of which haven't run very far, some of which haven't run very straight, all of which have limited experience so that you can throw the past performances and chalk out of the window, well, this one seems impossible.

So. Here's the caller's plan: The Exacta is not doable, the Trifecta is not fathomable, so we'll take the Superfecta. We pick a winner and then throw in three Alls.

The way you figure the price of a ticket is by multiplying the remaining possibilities times one another. After putting a winner on top, the price of the Superfecta ticket is computed by multiplying 13 times 12 times 11. This comes to $1,716 each for a $2 ticket, a steal, given the competitiveness of the race.

That's probably true.

But as I explained to the caller, the definition of a tough Breeders' Cup race is one where its as hard to pick sixth as it is to pick first. The reason why Breeders' Cup Day is so appealing is because you don't have shop for value, as the television experts are fond of saying. At the Breeders' Cup, the races are so competitive, value grows on trees.

Pick an Exacta, any Exacta, and dinner for six is easily on you, with something left over. Save the $100 Exacta boxes and the Pick Six syndicates for some Thursday in the heartland when there are six-horse fields with two limping.

Breeders' Cup day, pick three winners and you're a genius.

Distaff
What's better, a 119 Timeform rating from the Mid East track, or a 104 Beyer from Keeneland? Have to start with an upset ...
1. Take Charge Lady
2. Imperial Gesture
3. Azeri

Juvenile Fillies
A friend's system kicks in here: Throw out everything that has raced solely in California. Storm Flag Flying was a fat 4-1 two months ago in maiden. Most of these beginners are used to running against fields of seven ...
1. Storm Flag Flying
2. Composure
3. Santa Catarina.

Turf
Euro king to take victory lap ...
1. Rock of Gibraltar
2. Landseer
3. Beat Hollow

Pick Six starts here. Think there might be a few singles?

Sprint
How about these fractions in Kalookan Queen's last at Santa Anita: 21 flat, 43.1. Most of the dangerously serious heat, compared to the rest of the extremely serious heat, drew the outside spots ...
1. Swept Overboard
2. Orientate
3. Extra Heat

Filly and Mare Turf
Euro exhibition ...
1. Banks Hill
2. Golden Apples
3. Voodoo Dancer

Juvenile
Should be tough for race caller with these in: Val Nistelrooy, Kafwait, Toccet. Two plays: USA box, Euro box ...
USA box: Sky Mesa, Zavata, Vindication
Euro box: Hold That Tiger, Van Nistelrooy, Tomahawk

Turf
Soccer-type domination by Euros ...
1. High Chaparral
2. Golan
3. Ballingary

Classic
1. Medaglia d'Oro
2. Came Home
3. Milwaukee Brew



 


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