Even before Silver Wagon crossed the wire in front in the Hopeful, the first Grade I race of the year for 2-year-olds, trainer Ralph Ziadie was thinking Kentucky Derby. He believed he had a talented horse with the pedigree and running style to make him a legitimate contender in the 2004 Triple Crown races. Once he was proven right in the Hopeful, the only question was what to do with him between Aug. 30 and May 1, the day he wants his colt to be at his peak when attempting to win the Derby.

Usually, when a horse wins the Hopeful, the next steps seem obvious. There is a lot of money to be won in rich 2-year-old races like the $200,000 Futurity, the $500,000 Champagne and the $1.5 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile, as well as a 2-year-old championship to think about. But Ziadie said he wants no part of any of those races, not when the larger goal is winning the Kentucky Derby.

It was coming to this. Want to win the Kentucky Derby? Then don't try to get there with a 2-year-old who peaked too soon or ran too hard during his juvenile season and definitely don't win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile or the 2-year-old championship. Ziadie will not be the last who decides 2-year-old accomplishments do not fit the larger goal.

"I've seen to many horses run too many races as 2-year-olds and go by the wayside when the big races for the 3-year-olds come around," Ziadie said. "This horse is already mature and it's not like he needs any more racing. My thinking is that I don't want him to run too much as a 2-year-old and then not have him around as a 3-year-old. I don't want to take that chance."

Within days of Ziadie's announcement, Nick Zito revealed a similar decision. Though Birdstone was fourth in the Hopeful, he remains a top prospect. He is well bred and, since he has only run twice, can only get better with experience. Zito wants to win the Kentucky Derby with him and, with that in mind, says he has no intention of running his horse in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Instead, Birdstone may run in the Oct. 4 Champagne at Belmont and then call it a year.

Bobby Frankel has a barn full of well-bred 2-year-olds under care, but not one has started so far this year. He has said that the Breeders' Cup Juvenile is a race he does not want to run in. After Sky Mesa was injured preparing for the 2002 Juvenile, trainer John Ward Jr. said he would think long and hard before running another horse in the Juvenile and has advocated that they make it a shorter race.

"This was not a hard decision to make," Ziadie said. "I made up my mind before the Hopeful, that that would be it for him as a 2-year-old. If I feel later on that he needs another prep, I might look at a race like the Remsen. But we have decided he definitely can be a very good 3-year-old, and that's what's important."

It can be argued that Ziadie and Zito never should have run in the Hopeful if their larger goal was winning the Kentucky Derby. The Hopeful was once a race that routinely produced horses who would achieve major success as 3-year-olds, but the last time a Hopeful winner won the Kentucky Derby was in 1978, Affirmed's year. Some decent horses have won it over the ensuing years, but so have a lot of colts who proved to be little more than precocious and fast.

But few horses who have run in the race have been purposely put on the shelf for the rest of the year. Most, of course, start pointing for the Breeders' Cup, where a win is starting to look like a guaranteed way of losing the Kentucky Derby. It's no secret that after 19 runnings, no Juvenile winner has won the Kentucky Derby. It seemed that none of the good 2-year-olds from 2002 were anywhere to be found when it came time to run the 2003 Kentucky Derby, and that obviously has trainers alarmed. Things are getting so bad that the only 2002 Juvenile starter to even run in the Derby was Lone Star, a longshot and a non-factor in both races.

Lately, the Derby winner always seems to fit the same pattern. They are moderately successful 2-year-olds who have not yet come into their own. They develop over the winter and spring months and are positioned to for peak performances on the first Saturday in May. It's unfortunate, but today's horses are so fragile and so overprotected that it almost seems hopeless that a horse can be good from the beginning of a full 2-year-old campaign through the end of Triple Crown season.

It might be foolish to throw away all the opportunities available to horses as 2-year-olds, especially when there are no guarantees that, no matter how a horse is handled, he will be any good the following year. Not only can a horse earn a pile of money during his 2-year-old season, but he can show enough to become a valuable commodity to the breeding industry. The 2002 Juvenile winner Vindication was retired before ever running as a 3-year-old, yet his stud fee was recently set at a healthy $50,000.

But that's not what interests Ziadie or owner Mahmoud Fustok. They want to win the Kentucky Derby, above and beyond all else. So they've decided a promising horse's 2-year-old season is over. They may just have a point.