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Tuesday, January 20
Never zig when you should zag




In Las Vegas, the epicenter of excess, be as disciplined as a monk. Amid a million distractions, stay focused. Be intense, but not tense. Speculate, don't grind, bypassing the most likely winner for the value play. Never zig when you should zag, and when a move backfires, don't second-guess yourself.

Do all this for two days in a smoke-filled room filled with many of North America's best thoroughbred handicappers, and you may make the score of a lifetime and earn eternal bragging rights. That is, if you're lucky and 90 percent of the photo finishes go your way.

A check for $100,000 and an Eclipse Award for the Handicapper of the Year will be the prizes this weekend at Bally's Las Vegas in the fifth annual Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship. Defending champion Steve Wolfson Jr., a 36-year-old social studies teacher from Florida, will take on 260 challengers who qualified at 94 tournaments throughout the United States and Canada. Also back is the champ's father, Steve Wolfson Sr., who finished fourth last year.

Each player must bet a mythical $2 to win and $2 to place each day on 15 races (eight mandatory, seven optional). The main menu on Friday and Saturday includes Aqueduct, Laurel, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Santa Anita and Turf Paradise. Friday's extra track is Golden Gate, and on Saturday Turfway Park and Sam Houston also are on the agenda.

The quest is tiptoeing through a pari-mutuel minefield, filled with underlays, bad favorites and the agony of choice. "I don't see how this horse can lose, but he's not paying enough. I love the price on this one, but is he an overlay or dead on the board?"

Decisions, decisions. Wolfson Jr. defied the odds and the favorites by making almost all the right moves. Among his winners were hits at 26-1, 16-1, 12-1 and 9-1. Over the 30 races, he amassed $279.60 in mutuel return, a flat-bet profit of $159.60, to beat runner-up Angela Daniels by $20.60. On Saturday evening he stood triumphant but exhausted atop the horseplayer's Everest.

A few weeks later, Wolfson Jr. shared his secrets with me in a telephone interview. Memorize these quotes and apply them to your own handicapping.

"I kept taking good shots and finding overlays, and I never changed that strategy."

"I try to make excuses for a horse to explain away a bad race to find a logical one at a big price."

"I go by breeding a lot and a fair amount on trainer angles."

Words to bet by.

Even for an even-tempered guy who had played in eight contests, the experience was draining. "The tournament experience was wild," he said. "I tried to keep track of what I was doing so I could remember, but the whole thing went by like a blur."

It was crazy for his father, too. Wolfson Sr. finished only $60 behind his son, and if a few races had gone the other way, he might have taken home a hundred grand instead of a consolation prize of $5,000.

"In that kind of atmosphere, your confidence is going up and down depending on the last race, and you have so many decisions to make," Wolfson Sr. told me. "I was kicking myself, but I think I made 39 decisions, and 32 were right."

That's a terrific percentage, and it still wasn't good enough. So often, no matter how prophetic you may be, there's no future in the prediction business.

As a media freeloader, I will eagerly return to Bally's, again playing the dual role of participant/reporter. Although ineligible for prize money, I'll be on one of four five-person media teams competing for the charities of their choice. I'll be trying to win $2,000 for Little Flower Children's Services of New York, which for 40 years has aided disadvantaged children.

Among my rivals will be Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes, former NBA coach George Karl, TVG analysts Todd Schrupp and Frank Lyons, ESPN's Randy Moss, the Daily Racing Form's Steve Crist and Mike Watchmaker and four Penthouse Pets.

Last year I did well the first day, when a few longshot winners moved me into 25th place of 233 before I faded on Day 2 and finished 56th. I'll be throwing deep again. On the flight Thursday from Long Island, I'll be immersed in the Form, trying to smoke out some price stabs for Friday. Is there a better way to spend a winter evening?

My wife of 21 years is glad I have the chance to help a worthy cause but thinks my enthusiasm is misplaced. Well, more like twisted.

"Eddie, how can you get so excited about flying across the country to spend two days in a smoky room in a casino basement?'' Jean said. "You'll be with hundreds of middle-aged men squinting at little numbers, blowing their money and screaming at horses on TV screens. Wow."

Ah, some people just can't appreciate the finer things in life.




 




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