Express Tour and jockey David Flores defeat Street Cry and Frankie Dettori in the March 24 UAE Derby at Nad Al Sheba in Dubai.

With Dubai Millennium gone forever and Street Cry on the disabled list, a good Derby performance by Express Tour would do much to lift the spirits of the Dubai empire. That's a lot to ask. Even Godolphin's racing manager, Englishman Simon Crisford, isn't predicting victory for the Florida-bred with a pedigree that says no to 1 1/4 miles on the dirt.

"Express Tour is a very, very high-class horse, as everyone knows," Crisford said Tuesday on a conference call. "And he put in a very good work [Monday].

"So I think we're going into the race hopeful rather than confident, but certainly hopeful that he's going to put up a really excellent performance. On what we saw in Dubai when he won the UAE [United Arab Emirates] Derby and in all of his preparation and training, he's certainly a deserving candidate. So, we're just hopeful."

Although Express Tour outfought Street Cry down the stretch to take the 1 1/8-mile UAE Derby by a nose March 24 at Nad al Sheba Racecourse, Godolphin still was more upbeat about Street Cry's Derby chances. The injured colt has a better distance pedigree, and Godolphin hoped the chronic hanger would shake off his case of seconditis as the races got longer.

"Losing Street Cry so close to the race was a great blow to our camp," Crisford said, "because we thought we had all the right credentials for the Kentucky Derby. When you have two chances in the race, obviously you have to feel a lot more comfortable than if you've got only one. So we don't feel quite as hopeful as we were feeling."

There are no knocks on Express Tour's record, only against the company he's faced and his lack of a prep in the United States. The son of Tour d'Or is 4-for-5 lifetime, and his defeat barely even counts, considering it was a second at 4 1/2 furlongs in a baby race last July at Calder.

"He's been a very sound horse, and throughout the whole winter his preparation was extremely smooth. The reports on him we're getting back in Dubai are very favorable and encouraging," Crisford said, "apart from the small hiccup with the bruised foot. He missed a little [training] time then, but hopefully that's not going to be significant at all, come the big day. He seems to be doing very well, and everyone's pleased with him."

Godolphin bought the big chestnut colt last year after he swept the three-race Florida Stallion Series, and his only 3-year-old run was impressive. Under normal circumstances, it's hard to find fault with a colt that just won a $2-million stakes. If he were trying to win a race less demanding than the Derby, he'd probably look like a standout. As it is, though, Express Tour is up against it.

Sheikh Mohammed al Maktoum is the head honcho for Godolphin, which he founded in 1994. Having won almost all of the world's greatest events, the Crown Prince of Dubai targeted America's Race two years ago. He insisted upon doing it his way, and he hasn't changed his mind. He wanted his Derby hopefuls to spend winter in Dubai, run them there once or twice, then ship to Kentucky and train them up to the race. It didn't work with Worldly Manner (seventh) in 1999 or with China Visit and Curule, who ran sixth and seventh, respectively, last year. If Godolphin pulls off a Derby upset with Express Tour, it would shock the world.

Would Sheikh Mohammed rather win the Derby on his own terms after repeated failures or take it next year after grudgingly agreeing to prep a horse two or three times in the United States? Sometimes I wonder. When Andrew Beyer asked Tuesday about Godolphin's unique plan, Crisford sounded a bit defensive.

"The thing is, we've only tried twice before," he said, "and I think you have to give it a number of years before you can make any hard and fast judgments as to what the right approach is, from our point of view. We understand all of the horses in America have the traditional American preparation for the race.

"We're very happy with the way we're doing it. And right now, we haven't considered having the traditional American preparation. We're happy to do it from Dubai. That's what the plan is and that's what we hope to do."

Good luck. Horses don't win the Derby off long layoffs, and Express Tour will be coming in off a six-week break. True, he's used to American racing, and his gifted rider, David Flores, is based in California, but this animal never has faced the quality of competition he'll encounter on Derby Day. He has tactical speed, so he'll probably get his backers enthused for the first 1 1/16 miles or so. After that, I'm not expecting much.

Godolphin probably will win the Derby some year. It won't be this one.