LOUISVILLE, Ky. - It was just a few years back when Bob Baffert first showed up around here, a largely unknown wise-cracking newcomer who was just a few years removed from training quarter horses out in the bushes somewhere. It was hard to take him seriously. Even after Cavonnier lost by half a nose in 1997, no one could have imagined the impact Baffert would go on to have in the greatest race of them all. He himself wondered if he would ever be back, able to return to erase the most painful loss of his career.

Not only has he been back, he has turned the Kentucky Derby into his private plaything. Baffert has come so far so fast, and the most intriguing part of his story is that he might be poised for his biggest Derby Day yet. By early Saturday evening, we may be talking about Bob Baffert as one of the greatest Kentucky Derby trainers ever. With Point Given and Congaree, he is in the driver's seat.

While every trainer dreams of getting a horse to the Kentucky Derby, few have mastered the finer points. Even Wayne Lukas, with his four Kentucky Derby trophies, has sent out 34 Derby losers, the most in history. From all the fabulously bred, fabulously expensive 2-year-olds he was given to train last year not one made it to the 2001 Derby. Baffert will no doubt have similar off years, but so far they have yet to come. He has won the Derby twice and has never come into the race without a loaded gun.

But nothing he has done may compare to what he could easily do Saturday. So far, his work with his two Derby contenders has been flawless. With Point Given, he took a horse who had tender shins and seems to have him in perfect shape for the Derby. He went against conventional training wisdom and gave the son of Thunder Gulch just two preps, which resulted in a very good effort in the San Felipe and an awesome, near effortless victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Baffert may be the only trainer in the race who can be completely sure he will have a fresh horse come Saturday. Better yet, he should still have a relatively fresh horse for the Preakness and the Belmont. Was he already thinking Triple Crown when he plotted Point Given's prep schedule?

Congaree has presented challenges of his own. Well-regarded as a 2-year-old, he chipped a knee after an unsuccessful debut last summer at Del Mar. Baffert had a lot of catching up to do, but has, so far, made all the right moves. Congaree has been guided through a perfect 3-year-old campaign, which includes an impressive win in the Wood Memorial over Monarchos. The odds may still be against him as he is a lightly raced horse trying to buck historical trends. He would become the first horse since Exterminator in 1918 to win the Derby with four lifetime starts or fewer coming in. Twenty-four have tried and failed since. But if anyone can do it, this one can.

"No, I wouldn't want another race for him," Baffert said. "He's ready right now. He's going to run better than he did in the Wood. He's sitting on a big race. I've stuck with a program for these horses and so far it's working. I've got them right where I want them to be."

Perhaps Baffert is sitting on top of a miserable day Saturday, but somehow I doubt it. He has the obvious favorite in Point Given and, maybe, the horse with the best chance of beating him, in Congaree. The two are the favorite and second favorite in the morning line.

Can he win? How are they going to beat him? With a victory by either horse Baffert will have won his third Kentucky Derby in five years. It took Ben Jones, the winningest trainer in Derby history six years to win for the third time.

Can they run one-two? Of course they can. If so, Baffert will become the first trainer since Jones in 1948 to saddle the first and second-place Derby finishers.

Can he take another crack at the Triple Crown? Many believe that he will. If so, Baffert will go on to Belmont Park with a possible Triple Crown winner for the third time since 1997.

Will he back? Time and time again. His initial Kentucky Derby success came with moderately bred horses who were turned over to the then unproven trainer. Conscious of his success, deep-pocketed owners are now flocking to his stable to offer him their million-dollar babies to train. It wouldn't be that surprising to see Baffert, 48, win several more Kentucky Derbies before his career is over.

They will celebrate the horse that wins the Kentucky Derby and that's the way that it should be. Should it be either Point Given or Congaree, he will be the horse of the moment, trained by the best of his era.