This is the second of four pre-Derby articles aimed at picking the winner.

Part 1 was about the glut of cockeyed opinion provided by so-called experts, the point being that every horse player has the same basic information, a further point being all that separates a railbird from a media hotshot is luck.

The current expert testimony that is being touted as gospel is Came Home runs too slowly to win the Kentucky Derby.

But time only counts when you're running out of it.

And as every athlete who has competed at a high level knows, sometimes you're only as good as you have to be.

If as a baseball player you're ahead 10-0 in the seventh inning and hit one to the wall, you might stand up at second instead of try to dive in face-first at third.

Big lead.

No whip.

Routine time.

So?

What do the experts know.

Then it dawned on me: I am an expert handicapper!

For the inside story of who knows what, we have to look no farther than this screen for some professional Kentucky Derby insight.

An expert horse race handicapper can be defined as one who is hired to pick at winners.

Some professional handicappers pick at and around winners for years and years without hitting too many.

So in this respect, being a pro handicapper is like being a television meteorologist. Time is not spent reliving poor predictions. If it rains, you act like it never happened.

Being paid to try to pick a winner is more difficult than you might think in one respect.

True, you probably won't be fired if you miss.

And you're not asked to make a public appearance ten minutes after you've made a terrible selection.

But the very nature of having to make a public pick causes a handicapper to think conservatively. If you pick one of the favorites and miss, at least you're going to have plenty of company. Play a 15-1 shot that runs 13th and you'll feel like Sports Illustrated after one of its patented selections: New Mexico to win NCAA football title!

So what do I know about the upcoming Derby that you don't know?

If I say that I don't know anything more than you, my employer's people will try to call my people and they will find out that I have no people. Then they will ask me to come to horse racing headquarters where I will be asked about why one of the readers shouldn't have my job.

The answer is: I know a little something that you don't know.

But if I tell you exactly what it is, then we'll all be experts and you won't have to read this space anymore.

The Kentucky Derby fan is not only faced with sorting through the horses, but also the field of expert handicappers as well.

What you are apt to get from many Derby handicappers is the name of the possible winner, but without the means used to get there.

Again, you can't demand from a handicapper the specific technique and insight that makes him or her unique.

But you can expect a sign from a professional handicapper that he or she might know something that you can't find in the Form.

I have this Derby narrowed down to three horses.

I don't know who they are, but I do know where they will be, turning for home.

They won't be near the front end. There will be too many horses going too fast, too far, up there.

The winner will not be a deep closer.

A closer from the middle probably need not apply.

Most closing is an illusion, anyway.

Horses don't so much close toward the end of a mile and a quarter as they avoid over-achievers.

This is a stalker's race, pure and simple.

Put a stencil over the track with cut-out circles representing the horses as they approach the top of the final turn.

I'll take the three circles four lengths off the leaders.

Now, as for handicapping the handicappers, perhaps the best way to go is with somebody who is at least halfway entertaining, should his or her pick turn up bad.