From a sporting or entertainment perspective, there is nothing better than the Kentucky Derby.
It has everything you expect of a good time: some pretty women with their stomachs covered for a change; some males who wear jackets and ties and don't lean sideways into a camera shot and make strange shapes with their fingers; a moving song, "My Old Kentucky Home," which makes you feel like you've been to one even though you haven't; a catchy phrase, "The most exciting two minutes in sports," though I heard somebody call it "The fastest two minutes in sports," the other day, which doesn't quite work; tradition; a national television audience; action.
But from a wagering standpoint, heaven help us all, few gambles are more difficult because the obvious is tough to ignore and seldom holds form.
Here's how hard the Kentucky Derby is.
It's as hard as Keeno.
The way you make money betting the horses is the way you make money playing blackjack.
You count animals the way blackjack players count cards.
You sit and wait with the cash until the conditions are favorable.
Sometimes playing the Derby would be like a situation in which the blackjack dealer would say to the gambler, "You will play $5,000 on the next hand."
But the difficult nature of trying to sort through young horses dropping in from all over the globe makes the Kentucky Derby the poster event for good, clean, wholesome gambling: A little will get you a lot. Bet two bucks and hit it and you will be generously rewarded.
Usually when you've been counting horses and the numbers come up right, $20 Exactas must be played to evoke a pleasant return.
Five bucks is a good-sized wager, here.
A nasty bet would be something like the Ozzy Osbournes betting $18,000 to win on the five horse in the eighth race at Penn National.
A training film on family-style gambling would have a fresh-scrubbed couple and their four grandparents getting ready to bet two bucks at Churchill on Derby Day.
The field by the post position numbers:
1. Johannesburg -- Odd pre-Derby habits to say the least. Like prepping for the Masters with a quick round of miniature golf. If you simply can't leave the overseas horses alone, put them on top of a few, then toss them. If this one takes my money back to Ireland, God speed. Riding the rail against the outside rockets will be like surfing inside a gigantic wave.
2. Wild Horses -- Maiden winner. Undoubtedly secures nice box, parking pass for connections.
3. Perfect Drift -- Off six weeks. Not quite as frightening a fact as usual because almost everybody in this Derby has a wart. Seemed to have bonded with Request For Parole in tough TP campaign. Either or both could contribute to monster Tri.
4. Lusty Latin -- Late to this important date.
5. War Emblem -- To help lead the charge to the real Amen Corner. The speed in this is race is terrifying, little of it junky. The early fractions could look like a typographical error, that fast.
6. Ocean Sound -- Solid sort in a little deep.
7. Request For Parole -- See 3-hole thought.
8. Essence of Dubai -- Has been the distance, but on another galaxy.
9. Medaglia D'oro -- Lightly raced. Can't say the same for jock. Like the rider best when loose on a lead back in LA.
10. Buddha -- Pulled out Friday (Note: Don't bet on him.).
11. Private Emblem -- Improving stalker from the heartland apt to be overlooked by city slickers.
12. Castle Gandolfo -- Must think we're easy.
13. Proud Citizen -- Morning line oversight at 30-1. Will get to half that. Current. Hot.
14. Harlan's Holiday -- Suddenly everybody's acting like an Ohio bred is unclean. Number one cliché of the 2002 Derby: This race is wide open! Which means we now have to take a serious look at the favorite.
15. Came Home -- Not slow to the bank.
16. Saarland -- Poised to be this spring's trendy pick. Apt to enter gate at single-figure odds. Looks a bit tardy.
17. Danthebluegrassman -- Attention, horses one through 16. Heads up.
18. It'sallinthechase -- Impressive personality.
19. Easy Grades -- Lightly raced, lightly mentioned, could kick Trifecta up two grand.
20. Blue Burner -- Don't laugh: Legit contender for at least third. Late runner must make left turn out of the gate to even find the race.
Trifecta Boxes 'O Fun: Medaglia D'Oro, Came Home with: Harlan's Holiday, Perfect Drift; Blue Burner; Request For Parole; Private Emblem; Proud Citizen.
Top 5:
1. Medaglia D'oro
2. Came Home
3. Harlan's Holiday
4. Perfect Drift
5. Private Emblem