Belmont Stakes
10th Belmont Park
Distance: 1 1/2 miles
Purse: $1 million
For: 3-year-olds
Grade I

Those who missed out on War Emblem in the Kentucky Derby at 20-1 and even let him go in the Preakness at 5-2 have picked an inopportune time to jump on the bandwagon as he's likely to be about 4-5 to wrap up his quest to capture the Triple Crown. But jump on the bandwagon you must. It's actually pretty simple: this horse has proven to be far and away the best horse among his generation. That point was debatable after he won the Kentucky Derby because, astonishingly, nobody ever pressed him on the lead. It was the Preakness that showed how dominant he had become. Proving that he could rate when speedball Menacing Dennis went to the lead, he sat second behind some swift fractions, took care of Menacing Dennis, took care of an early bid from Proud Citizen and then had enough left in the tank to hold off longshot Magic Weisner. It was an exceptional performance and one in which he had to earn the victory. The Belmont could actually be easier. There's no Victory Gallop, Touch Gold or Easy Goer in here, an outstanding horse who can run his race and beat the Triple Crown hopeful. Plus the Belmont fits this horse perfectly. This is a race for horses with tactical speed who can gallop around the track and put the race away at the top of the stretch. Expect War Emblem to sit second early behind Wiseman's Ferry, to take over midway on the turn and then to swat away mild challenges from Proud Citizen and Sunday Break. If he runs his race, there's no reason to believe that he will get beat. Proud Citizen has established himself as the second best 3-year-old in the country, even though he was third in the Preakness. Breaking from the 12 post on that occasion, he was caught hopelessly wide for much of the trip and had every reason to hit a wall in the stretch like he did. That he was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths says a lot for his ability and determination. In what should be a formful race, he should complete the exacta. Sunday Break is the only unknown commodity in here who should be feared. He was pretty impressive in the Peter Pan, where he was under a hold until the top of the stretch and then spurted away from the competition to win rather easily. But this is still a horse who needs to improve 5 to 7 lengths to challenge War Emblem, and there's no reason to expect that will happen. On anybody's speed figures, he is, at the moment, too slow to win this race. Perfect Drift ran his race in the Kentucky Derby and it was good, but not good enough. The little bit of trouble that he got in in mid-stretch was inconsequential. Good enough to win but not to hit the board. You can't laugh at Magic Weisner now, certainly not after he ran so well in the Preakness. But he had a good trip that day and wasn't good enough. Would make for a nice story if he were to win but, like Sunday Break, he still needs to improve. Wiseman's Ferry's role may be to soften up War Emblem, but there's no way Victor Espinoza is dumb enough to get caught up in a speed duel with him. Was impressive in the Lone Star Derby, but this is a whole different league. Medaglia D'oro was the hot horse for the Preakness, but didn't run a step. Very tough to like him off that race. Hard to make any case at all for Artax Too, Essence of Dubai, Like A Hero or Sarava.

Picks Summary: 1. War Emblem   2. Proud Citizen   3. Sunday Break