Something is going to happen. I'm not sure what, but it will. Late
Saturday afternoon at Belmont Park, no Triple Crown trophy will be awarded.
My gut feeling about War Emblem is the same one I had about Charismatic
three years ago. Fate is going to deny the nasty, black colt.
Thanks for sharing your vision, the skeptical reader may say. Did
you come up with this by going up to a mountain to fast and pray? How about
giving us a few concrete reasons, Eddie boy?
I know, I know, War Emblem will be odds-on, and he hammered the
competition in his last three races. He's working brilliantly and ready to
roll. Yeah, you could argue that destiny owes Bob Baffert after torturing
him in his first two bids for the Triple Crown, and that it's crazy to go
against the world's hottest trainer.
All of the other alleged experts will be picking him to win, figuring
that there's nobody in the field that's shown the ability to beat him.
That's also what most people said about Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday
Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet and Charismatic. When it looks so obvious,
beware.
War Emblem just looks too good, which is why I sense an ambush. He's
overdue to bounce off three lights-out wins, and he was getting tired at the
end of the Preakness, even though he had the race wrapped up. The Belmont is
five-sixteenths of a mile farther, and that last quarter-mile is the
Twilight Zone of American dirt racing. No one knows where the invisible wall
will be for a horse, and would it be that stunning if War Emblem hit it?
Wiseman's Ferry probably will put pressure on him for the lead, and
War Emblem doesn't really like being rated. Yeah, he sat off the no-chance
sprinter Menacing Dennis at Pimlico, but War Emblem was eager to get on with
it. If he's feisty on the front end and the fractions aren't comfortable, he
may pay for it late.
He's posted in Post 10 outside Proud Citizen, to whom I give little
chance to win, but trainer D. Wayne Lukas' colt could have a major impact
before backpedaling in the stretch. Lukas and Baffert share a few owners,
and one of them is Prince Ahmed bin Salman's Thoroughbred Corporation.
It's nothing personal against the Prince, but Lukas has no desire
to see Baffert win a Triple Crown. True, they're both former quarter horse
guys, and Baffert used to look up to Lukas. In the mid-'90s, Lukas was Mr.
Triple Crown, winning an unprecedented six consecutive races in the series
from 1994-96. Since Baffert made his classics breakthrough with Silver Charm
in the 1997 Derby, he's supplanted his former idol. Lukas would like nothing
better than to prevent Baffert from savoring ultimate glory.
Now, let me switch to cosmic mode, far from pace dynamics, speed
figures and race strategy. Standing in the starting gate next to War Emblem
will be Proud Citizen, who will be wearing a blanket emblazoned with FDNY to
honor the New York firefighters and police who died Sept. 11 at the World
Trade Center. Many firemen and police will take part in ceremonies on
Belmont day, and don't expect them to be rooting for a prince from Saudi
Arabia, the land from where 15 of the 19 hijackers came.
If there really are racing gods, will they allow an Arab
multimillionaire to celebrate a Triple Crown 20 miles from Ground Zero? Even
for cynical, scarred New York, that scene would be beyond surreal.