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The Crown won't fit
By Ed McNamara
Special to ESPN.com


Something is going to happen. I'm not sure what, but it will. Late Saturday afternoon at Belmont Park, no Triple Crown trophy will be awarded. My gut feeling about War Emblem is the same one I had about Charismatic three years ago. Fate is going to deny the nasty, black colt.

Thanks for sharing your vision, the skeptical reader may say. Did you come up with this by going up to a mountain to fast and pray? How about giving us a few concrete reasons, Eddie boy?

I know, I know, War Emblem will be odds-on, and he hammered the competition in his last three races. He's working brilliantly and ready to roll. Yeah, you could argue that destiny owes Bob Baffert after torturing him in his first two bids for the Triple Crown, and that it's crazy to go against the world's hottest trainer.

All of the other alleged experts will be picking him to win, figuring that there's nobody in the field that's shown the ability to beat him. That's also what most people said about Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet and Charismatic. When it looks so obvious, beware.

War Emblem just looks too good, which is why I sense an ambush. He's overdue to bounce off three lights-out wins, and he was getting tired at the end of the Preakness, even though he had the race wrapped up. The Belmont is five-sixteenths of a mile farther, and that last quarter-mile is the Twilight Zone of American dirt racing. No one knows where the invisible wall will be for a horse, and would it be that stunning if War Emblem hit it?

Wiseman's Ferry probably will put pressure on him for the lead, and War Emblem doesn't really like being rated. Yeah, he sat off the no-chance sprinter Menacing Dennis at Pimlico, but War Emblem was eager to get on with it. If he's feisty on the front end and the fractions aren't comfortable, he may pay for it late.

He's posted in Post 10 outside Proud Citizen, to whom I give little chance to win, but trainer D. Wayne Lukas' colt could have a major impact before backpedaling in the stretch. Lukas and Baffert share a few owners, and one of them is Prince Ahmed bin Salman's Thoroughbred Corporation.

It's nothing personal against the Prince, but Lukas has no desire to see Baffert win a Triple Crown. True, they're both former quarter horse guys, and Baffert used to look up to Lukas. In the mid-'90s, Lukas was Mr. Triple Crown, winning an unprecedented six consecutive races in the series from 1994-96. Since Baffert made his classics breakthrough with Silver Charm in the 1997 Derby, he's supplanted his former idol. Lukas would like nothing better than to prevent Baffert from savoring ultimate glory.

Now, let me switch to cosmic mode, far from pace dynamics, speed figures and race strategy. Standing in the starting gate next to War Emblem will be Proud Citizen, who will be wearing a blanket emblazoned with FDNY to honor the New York firefighters and police who died Sept. 11 at the World Trade Center. Many firemen and police will take part in ceremonies on Belmont day, and don't expect them to be rooting for a prince from Saudi Arabia, the land from where 15 of the 19 hijackers came.

If there really are racing gods, will they allow an Arab multimillionaire to celebrate a Triple Crown 20 miles from Ground Zero? Even for cynical, scarred New York, that scene would be beyond surreal.




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