That his horse, Scrimshaw, is too slow and didn't beat anybody in the Coolmore Lexington, is not the only factor, maybe not even the main factor. It's the Kentucky Derby and Wayne Lukas is here with a horse who has four legs, a pulse and is a registered 3-year-old thoroughbred. He's got a shot.

Call it the Lukas Factor. He can be down, which he has been many times through his career, including the present. He is having, by Lukas standards, a miserable year. But he is never out. That was proven for maybe the thousandth time when he came out of nowhere to win the Lexington with Scrimshaw, who became a legitimate starter in the Kentucky Derby.

On Saturday, the question will be whether or not he can put on another magic show. Logically, Scrimshaw has no chance. He showed promise late last year when winning an allowance race in a good time, but went off form when running a distance third in the Santa Catalina and a poor fourth in the Hutcheson. Lukas said he cleared up throat and breathing problems Scrimshaw was having and that you saw the real horse in the Lexington. Even so, his Beyer figure was a mere 99 and the final time of 1:45 2/5 was the second slowest time over the last 20 years.

Lukas, of course, has a different take on the situation.

"A lot of these other Derby horses topped out in their last race," he said. "With our horse, we know he needed the race. He got over that hurdle and has more room for improvement than anyone else. He didn't top off yet. I've been here for 23 years and I think I've picked up on a few of these things."

Part of it is just trainer-speak, the ability every Derby trainer seems to have to artfully cast their woebegone horses as the type who is just sitting on the race of his life and is about to shock the masses piled into Churchill Downs Saturday. Lukas is better at it than anybody else. But, he can back it up.

There have been a lot of Scrimshaws in the big races. Only they were named Charismatic, Commendable, Spain, Cat Thief. It almost happened last year with Proud Citizen He was awfully hard to like after an uninspiring win in the Lexington, but was second at 23-1 two weeks later in the Derby. They can make no sense, but somehow, when the big money is down, they run their eyeballs out.

"We've made a living entering where we don't belong," he said.

A part of Lukas' success with stunning longshots has simply got to be due to some luck. That's even part of his theory. He likes to throw any sort of horse into a marquee race, figuring you have to be in it to win it. But there is clearly more to it than just that. Lukas clearly has the ability to focus in on major goals and make things happen, which is why any horse he trains has to be respected in a race like the Kentucky Derby.

"You learn from your mistakes and you get a feel for what it takes," he said. "It's the experience factor. You learn what you need to do to get it right and you learn how to evaluate every situation. Anyone who is running in the Derby for the first time this year, when they walk away after it's over will be better for the experience."

One thing he is not is intimidated. With four Kentucky Derby wins and 13 victories in Triple Crown races to his credit, he has come to expect something good will happen, no matter who he is running against.

"I don't see Empire Maker as a 6-5 shot," he said. "He's been winning but I just don't think he's been that dominant. To be 6-5 against 18 head in the Kentucky Derby, you better be dominant. He could lose this race by being outrun by another horse."

But to beat Empire Maker or anyone else, he will have to have Scrimshaw ready for the race of his life. He has another horse in the race, Ten Cents A Shine, but his recent form is so wretched that not even Lukas can make a serious case for him. Scrimshaw will have to run better than he did in the Lexington, maybe much better.

"I wouldn't say I felt vindicated after the Lexington," Lukas said. "What I needed to see was this horse moving forward. With the breathing problems that he had, it was like someone who had nearly drowned and the next you know you throw them in the deep end of the pool. They don't know that it's going to be okay. He needed to learn that everything was going to be fine."

At the very least, Lukas has the horse where he wants him for the Derby. In all likelihood, Scrimshaw simply isn't good enough. But he is trained by Lukas. And maybe that's all that really matters.