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Kentucky Derby picks
By Bill Finley
Special to ESPN.com


There's little doubt that Empire Maker is the best horse on paper in the Kentucky Derby field of 17. Since Bobby Frankel went to the blinkers, Empire Maker has registered an explosive win in the Florida Derby and the type of solid, yet not too demanding, victory in the Wood Memorial that Frankel was looking for.

Frankel's the best trainer in the country and he has thought for some time that this was a very special horse. "Frankel and (Juddmonte general manager) John Chandler win two stakes races every weekend and they seem to think this horse is Secretariat," said Wally Dollase, who trains Ten Most Wanted. "It makes me think, what am I doing here?"

Frankel's opinion speaks volumes about this horse's quality. There is, of course, the issue of his foot problems. Will it bother him or not? I have no idea. Why play guessing games. I'm just going to stick with the best horse and put my faith in Frankel to get the job done. At the very least, the foot issue is sure to drive the price up. He's going to be 8-5 or 9-5, which will turn out to be a huge bargain if the foot issue turns out to be, as Frankel has said, much ado about nothing.

Picking the second and third-place finishers is a little more tricky, but this is where the rewards will come from if you are right.

With the rest of the race so wide open, the exacta and trifecta payoffs figure to be decent no matter who runs second and third. Funny Cide is being totally overlooked this week. If you like Empire Maker, how can you not like a horse who finished just a half-length behind him in the Wood Memorial? Forget that he's a New York bred or any of that nonsense about no gelding having won since 1929, he's a quality horse who finished 7 1/2 lengths in front of the third-place finisher in the Wood. He has worked very well since and should part of what will not be a fast pace. There are no speedburners in this field.

For some of the same reasons, Indian Express should also be respected. He's another who is coming off a strong race (in the Santa Anita Derby) and will be on or near the lead early. The fact that he's trained by Bob Baffert sure doesn't hurt, either. He's a man who knows how to get the job done on Derby Day.

Buddy Gil keeps proving everybody wrong and certainly deserves respect. He's won three straight for his very hot trainer and is obviously a gutsy horse. Use him, Indian Express and Funny Cide underneath Empire Maker in the exactas.

Next to Empire Maker, Peace Rules may have the best credentials of anyone in this race and he's another who will be close early. The knock is that his Blue Grass win came gift-wrapped. He was allowed to get an easy lead through comfortable fractions on a track that is notoriously kind to front-runners.

Brancusi seems to get better with every start. With another positive move forward, he may just sneak into the money under his unheralded rider Tony Farina.

Ten Most Wanted is the second choice in the morning line and has become the backstretch buzz horse of Derby Week. The problem is that he beat nobody in the Illinois Derby and enjoyed a ground-saving trip on a day when the rail was golden at Hawthorne. He won't be on any of my tickets.

There used to be a lot of buzz for Atswhatimtalknabout, but it's very hard to like him off his really flat effort in the Santa Anita Derby. Maybe the blinkers will help. Don't think the race is going to be set up for his late running style.

Scrimshaw doesn't look like he has a chance on paper but this wouldn't be the first time Wayne Lukas pulled off a miracle in a Triple Crown race. Supah Blitz, Offlee Wild, Lone Star Sky, Domestic Dispute, Eye Of The Tiger, Ten Cents A Shine and Outta Here look like they'll be battling it out for 17th.

Picks Summary: 1. Empire Maker 2. Funny Cide 3. Indian Express




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