LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Maybe after coming to the 'Ville for 11 straight Derbys, it's a natural reaction. I know the drill all too well. I still wouldn't want to be anywhere else on the first Saturday in May, but as my friend Craig said last week, "I'm really not that pumped up about this Derby." Yeah, there's a potential superstar and the possibility of a trainer (Bobby Frankel) running 1-2 for the first time since Ben Jones did it with Citation and Coaltown in 1948. Maybe it's my biorhythms or turning 53 next month. The fever isn't very high.

Oh, stop it, Eddie Boy, it's time to recapture your old fire. Your fans are demanding insights, jokes and the winner. Stand and deliver, middle-aged cynic. All right, friends, here's how I see the 129th Kentucky Derby playing out. If reality doesn't match my vision, I won't be the only one who fouls up. In the past 19 years I've had pretty good look with the Derby, selecting Sunday Silence (3-1), Unbridled (10-1), Grindstone (6-1) and Silver Charm (4-1). But I haven't hit one in the last five years and I'd like to get off the schneid.

But I won't try to do it by picking the favorite, which I've never done, and Empire Maker won't be the first. He may win by three lengths in hand after enjoying his third straight bubble trip under pathfinder Jerry Bailey, but in a field of 17 at even-money he'll be a bad bet, even if he does win. The bruised foot may not be a problem, but who wants that in the back of your mind as you're taking a short price?

Unlike last year, when War Emblem waltzed through moderate fractions on an unchallenged lead, I foresee a fairly quick, contested pace, with the winner coming from midpack. Indian Express will be in front going into the first turn, with Peace Rules, Funny Cide and Brancusi not far behind. Empire Maker will be fourth or fifth, with Ten Most Wanted and Pat Day tracking him in sixth or seventh. Entering the far turn, Funny Cide and Peace Rules will move together and pass Indian Express, who will backpedal as Empire Maker gradually quickens. Peace Rules will take a short lead turning for home amid deafening noise at the Downs.

The loudest roar until the end of the world will amplify as Empire Maker accelerates boldly and Ten Most Wanted revs up behind him, just as Lil E Tee did in 1992 when Arazi made a sweeping move that appeared to blow open the race. Nearing the eighth pole, Empire Maker finally changes leads before beginning to shorten stride a bit as Ten Most Wanted powers down the middle of the track.

Ten Most Wanted takes the lead at the sixteenth pole and goes on to win by 2 1/4 lengths over Empire Maker, with Peace Rules holding on for third and Brancusi finishing fourth to complete the superfecta.

And if it all shakes out like that, no one will be more shocked than I will.