Besides the Derby, Churchill Downs traditionally offers up one of the best racing cards of the year. This year is no different, with four other graded races and the first look at some of this year's best two-year-olds.
And just to make things a little more interesting the track has posted a $750,000 guaranteed Pick-4 to be divided by those who can put the winners of races 7 through 10, concluding with the Derby, on a single ticket. Here's our analysis of today's handicapper's delight.
Race 5
Churchill Downs Handicap
Grade II (Seven Furlongs)
Although Pass Rush prefers a little bit more ground than today's seven furlongs, he appears primed for a top effort. Two back he won the Grade II San Fernando at Santa Anita, posting a 106 Beyer speed figure. Last out he got hung three wide on the first turn against the great Medaglia D'oro. He loves Churchill Downs (3-1-1 in five starts), and he should get a perfect trip behind the speed with Pat Day.
Alderbaran will undoubtedly be the favorite, having run Beyers between 107 and 111 in his last five tries on the dirt. The knock is he's finished second in seven of his last eight races on the main track. This year however, he won the Grade I, seven-furlong San Carlos at Santa Anita and then ran second to Congaree in the Carter Handicap. There are no Congarees here today, and with Bobby Frankel training and Jerry Bailey riding, he's strictly the one to beat.
Lord Abounding is pure speed and has blown away high claiming competition in his last pair of dirt tries, winning by seven lengths at Gulfstream on 2/28 then again four weeks later by more than five lengths. His Beyers for those two were 108 and 113, both at today's seven-furlong distance. He should be able to put away the only other speed in the race, Wiseman's Ferry, and may be able to hang on at the wire. He's a horse who has gotten very good very fast. Of the others, Peeping Tom and Swift Replica have the best chance to complete an exotic wager. Peeping Tom is a model of consistency and was only a length behind Aderbaran in his last. Swift Replica is improving and is better than he looks at first glance. Proud Citizen, second in last year's Derby, is in a tough spot trying to win off the bench after an 11-month layoff from post 13.
Race 6
Three Chimneys Juvenile
(Five Furlongs)
Outstanding juvenile trainer Todd Pletcher is off to a fast start with his two year olds. Today he has three entered in the Three Chimneys and they are our first three choices. Heckle won his debut race, a 4 _ furlong sprint at Keeneland, by an astounding 12 _ lengths, tying Keeneland's track record. That's hard to do. Jerry Bailey returns to ride, jumping off two others in today's field that he's already won on.
Korsakoff, also won his opener with ease, and gets Gary Stevens replacing Bailey. Limehouse did something very few can do at Keeneland, he closed ground in the stretch and won. Robby Albarado returns for the ride. Wayne Lucas' $500,000 filly Fashion Girl gets Cornelio Velasquez replacing Bailey. She won her debut gamely and takes on the boys today.
Race 7
Citgo Distaff Turf Mile
Grade III (1 Mile)
Heat Haze, very competitive in her Grade I races in France, appears perfectly spotted by Frankel for this. She's won both of her U.S. starts (each at 6 _ furlongs). The most recent was a month ago winning the Grade 3 Las Cienegas at Santa Anita with an effortless five-wide move. Now she returns to her best distance. Dedication, a Grade I winner in France, now trained by top turf and layoff conditioner Christopher Clement, should appreciate Churchill's turf course after being bottled up and boxed in during her stateside debut at Tampa. She also gets the services of Jerry Bailey.
Sentimental Value loves today's distance and should improve off of her sharp effort three weeks ago in the Grade 3 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland. In that race she stalked, led then ran out of gas to lose by just two lengths. Strait From Texas, now at her career best, defeated Dedication last out, but will have a difficult trip from the 12 post. Love Talkin likes this turf course and appears to be the lone speed today. Can upset at a very big price.
Race 8
Humana Distaff Handicap
Grade I (Seven Furlongs)
Gold Mover, the class of the field, has won more than $1.1million the hard way—without running in any million-dollar races. Last year she extended both Carson Hollow and Xtra Heat before finishing second to each. She's been first or second in 7 of 8 starts at today's distance, and runs well fresh, having had two months off. Edgar Prado returns to ride her on one her favorite tracks. Certainly, she's the one to beat.
Sightseek, another Frankel/Bailey bombshell, has been brought along perfectly for the Empire Maker people. Will either make or press the pace and has the best last-race Beyer in the field, a 108. Took a two-month break following the 9-furlong distance experiments, finishing second twice in graded company at Santa Anita. Miss Lodi should be tighter after running second in mid March (behind Sightseek) after a five-month break Richard Mandella is nursing Palmarola along with a series of seven-furlong works, following an eight-month vacation. Last summer the Argentine-bred ran some fast times but is strictly fighting for third here.
Race 9
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic
Grade I (1 1/8 miles, Turf)
Rouvres was a neck short in the Grade 2 Explosive Bid Handicap five weeks ago at the Fairgrounds. A Grade I winner last summer in France. Bailey, who is an even better rider on the grass, returns. Frankel is moving Epicentre way up from non-winners of two victory to this Grade I event. Maybe he senses a huge race coming and he doesn't want to waste it. By now, we all should have learned not to question the master.
With Anticipation is coming up to this Grade I on works alone after a six month break. He last raced in the Breeder's Cup Turf, where he finished a strong second. At age 8 it might be asking too much for him to come off the bench and beat these first out. If Epicentre can't do it, maybe Requete can for Frankel. Another distance specialist from France with a little less seasoning but has the rail and gets Prado. Could surprise. Perfect Drift, who just won his turf debut, appears to be aiming too high with these.
Race 10
Kentucky Derby
Grade I (1 1/4 miles)
Empire Maker looks like the real thing. He's bred perfectly for the distance and has the world's best jockey and trainer. Best strategy is to use EM on top of live long shots Brancusi, Indian Express, Funny Cide, Domestic Dispute and Atswhatimtalknbout in exotic wagers. Here's what we like about those just mentioned: Brancusi, Domestic Dispute and 'Atswhat' are classically bred and all seem to be sitting on a big race. Funny Cide is as game as they come while Indian Express may last a long, long way.
Hope you're still smiling at 6:06 p.m.