Over the last two years, the key to solving the Kentucky Derby puzzle was to handicap jockeys not horses. It was the riders who decided the outcomes in 2001 and 2002, as much as Monarchos or War Emblem. One year they went way too fast early, the next they checked their brains in at the Churchill Downs' gates and went way to slow. The pace is often the key to this race, and this year is no different.

Will it be like 2001? Songandaprayer and Balto Star set some of the fastest fractions in the history of the race as they sped from the gate and clipped off a half-mile in :44.86 and six furlongs in 1:09:25. Not only were they fried, they went along way toward finishing anyone who came near them early. Gary Stevens appeared to make a premature move aboard Point Given when he rushed forward on the backstretch. A lot of things might have contributed to his defeat that day, but he certainly didn't help himself when he got too close to the pace well before he should have.

It was Monarchos who looped the field from 13th on his way to victory, followed by longshot Invisible Ink, who was ninth early.

The jockeys learned their lesson for 2002, but learned too well. As if they were worried sick about the 2001 scenario, every jockey but Victor Espinoza let their hands turn to stone when the gates opened When War Emblem, a better horse than he was given credit for at that point, was allowed to coast on the lead after six furlongs had been run in 1:11.75, the race was, for all practical purposes, over. It turned into one of the most boringly run derbies ever, with the top three running in the same order the entire way around the track. Anyone who could have anticipated that's the way they race was going to unfold could have made some serious money at the betting windows.

Now what?

That's the trickiest question of the week. Will the jockeys overreact again to last year's race and make sure than nobody gets loose, thereby guaranteeing a fast pace and setting the race up for a deep close like Atswhatimtalknbout? Or will they be scared of a costly speed duel and let someone like Peace Rules get loose and lonely on the lead? You can't successfully handicap this Kentucky Derby without answering that question.

I will make all my bets Saturday based on the prediction that the pace will be a slow one and the come-form-behinders will have no chance. That doesn't mean that there will be another War Emblem to steal it, but this could develop into one of the slower paces in a while.

The interesting thing about this field is that there's not a single stone cold front-runner in the field, no War Emblem, Balto Star or Hal's Hope, the type who always goes to the front and dares everyone to catch them. Instead, there are a bunch of horses who all want to sit third.

The only horse who had the lead in the first call of his last race was Peace Rules, the wire-to-wire winner of the Blue Grass. But he got the lead by default after Badge Of Silver was injured and scratched and jockey Edgar Prado and trainer Bobby Frankel knew they could take advantage of Keeneland's speed-friendly ways. Peace Rules probably won't go to the front Saturday.

Whoever does won't necessarily want to be there because, for them, it will not be their customary position. When that happens, the jockey aboard the horse on the lead will often try to slow the pace down as much as possible. The most likely scenario is that Brancusi, Peace Rules, Funny Cide and Indian Express are all bunched together on the front end after the first half-mile has been run in something like :47.60.

That shouldn't be a problem for Empire Maker. Jerry Bailey, who understands these sort of things better than most, has a horse with just enough tractable speed that he can find a spot in sixth or seventh position early. Even if they're going slow up front, he'll be close enough to the leaders that he should be in position to run them down.

If you are an Empire Maker fan, the key to betting the race will be to figure out who's going to run second and third and complete the exacta and trifecta positions. It should be one of the front-runners. They are all quality horses who have the ability and class to hang in there if the trip goes their way.

I will bet Empire Maker in exactas and trifectas keying him underneath of Brancusi, Peace Rules, Funny Cide and Indian Express. I'll also box those four in an exacta, just in case Empire Maker's foot does prove to be a problem after all.