Like most, I agree that the 128th Preakness is a two-horse race between Funny
Cide and Peace Rules. None among the other eight in the race appear to have
the class or talent to come anywhere close to the top two, providing that
Peace Rules and Funny Cide run their race. The only handicapping question
involves the choice between the two favorites.
While horses may not be machines and there's no guarantee that either one will run back to their race
in the Derby, off that race, I see no reason to pick against Funny Cide. A
lot has been said and written about the perfect trip he enjoyed in the first
leg of the Triple Crown. That's true, but Peace Rules did not, by any means,
have a bad trip. Though the pace was a little fast, he was going comfortably
down the backstretch while he chased longshot Brancusi and moved to the lead
on his own efforts. He should have had something left in the stretch when
Funny Cide came to him, but offered little fight when the eventual Derby
winner went right by him.
Funny Cide's 1 3/4-length win was decisive.
There's no precise why to predict how that race affected each horse, but
Funny Cide worked brilliantly Tuesday morning at Belmont Park when gliding
through a four-furlong workout in :47. 20. He gave every indication that he
has remained sharp in the time between races and should run another strong
race Saturday. Peace Rules fans will point to the Louisiana Derby, where he
beat Funny Cide by 3 1/4 lengths that day. That's a legitimate handicapping
factor, but Funny Cide has improved since that race and I'm not sure that
Peace Rules has. With it appearing that these two almost have to run one-two
in some order, maybe the thing to do is box them in the exacta. Though a
Funny Cide-Peace Rules exacta may not pay more than $8 or so, playing the
race that way should take any of the guesswork out of the equation and reward
the player with a profit.
The trifecta and superfecta are much more difficult
because there is no clear cut third choice and many of the rest in the field
are hard horses to figure.
The third pick will be Kissin Saint. He hasn't run
since the Wood Memorial, where he finished a distant third behind Empire
Maker and Funny Cide, but that race is better than it looks. The horse had
some problems at the start that compromised his chances and the Wood was
clearly the best prep race of the pre-Derby season. It may also help that
he's had five weeks rest while Peace Rules and Funny Cide are coming back in
two weeks.
Cherokee's Boy got a dream trip when he won the Tesio, scoring a
wire-to-wire win after setting slow fractions. That won't happen again, but
he figures to save ground the entire way while racing on the rail from his
inside post and might have enough ability to finish third of fourth.
Midway Road exploded last time out when winning a Keeneland allowance race by 11 3/4
lengths and comes from a sharp stable. This, however, looks like too tough a
spot for such a relatively unproven horse.
Ten Cents A Shine was beaten 7 1/2 lengths when eighth in the Kentucky Derby, but it was a huge improvement on
his previous three races. Wayne Lukas has said he's on the way to turning
this horse around, and he may be right. Lukas has another longshot in
Scrimshaw, who didn't run particularly well in the Derby, but would have a
chance to finish in the money if duplicating his effort in the Lexington. Senor Swinger probably belongs on the grass, New York Hero is not in good
form and Foufa's Warrior is too slow.
Picks Summary: 1. Funny Cide 2. Peace Rules 3. Kissin Saint