Three and out.

Sorry, that’s the way I see it playing out for the U.S. in the World Cup next June. Am I being pessimistic? I guess, but I also think I’m being realistic. Let me break it down for you.

The U.S. opens with Portugal. My advice to you, if you have a friend who’s on the fence about the sport of soccer, get him to tune into this game. Portugal not only has two of the best players in the world, Luis Figo and Rui Costa, but also is one of the most entertaining teams on the planet. The Portuguese team is so comfortable with the ball, so creative and stylish, you’ll be able to say to your pal, “See, this is what I was talking about when I said some of the world’s greatest athletes play soccer.”

Unfortunately for the U.S. team, this is not an exhibition or a training match. So, as much as they’d like to learn from this game, it’s more likely they’ll chase it. If they’re not chasing, they’ll be desperately trying to keep their defensive shape, to not get too spread out while the ball is pinging from one Portuguese player to the next.

How do you get a result in a match like this? Well, prayer can work. Or luck. As we all know in soccer, there are days when a team simply cannot score. Goalkeepers have blinders where they stop everything and strikers have days where they can’t finish. The U.S. has to hope a few things go their way in this match. If they get the breaks, maybe they can get a draw that would seem as sweet as a victory. Their next best hope is going to be to keep the score down so they don’t mess up their goal differential.

The next match is against South Korea. Now, on a neutral field, a U.S.-South Korea matchup would be a tossup. Probably a pretty good game, too. But, as you know, this game is going to be played in front of the South Koreans’ home crowd. Not only that, but if South Korea gets a victory or draw in its opener with Poland, the U.S. game could be the game that gets them through to the second round before they even see Portugal.

What do I know about South Korea’s team? Not much, other than the fact that in the ’94 World Cup in the U.S., they were one of my favorite teams to watch. While other teams wilted in the heat, the South Koreans never stopped running, kept a lot of possession and played well against the likes of Spain and Germany. What I take away from watching them in ’94 is that the South Koreans are at least on par with the U.S. as a soccer nation.

So, like the first game, the U.S. is going to have to fight like hell to draw on Match Day Two. Now, let’s just say, they do get two points in their first two matches. (That or a loss and a win for three points would be my best-case scenarios). Well, that leaves them needing a victory over Poland to get out of the first round.

See my logic here? Probably not. What I’m trying to say is ... it’s not so much the “group” draw that came out bad for the U.S., it’s the order of the games. You go from playing one of the Top Five teams in the world in their cup opener to playing one of the host countries to, then, playing a game that looks (perhaps, on a good day) winnable.

Hindsight is always a nice luxury, but if you look at the U.S. draws in the last two World Cups, you’d take them both in a second before you’d take this draw. I know in ’94, Pele had the audacity to pick Colombia as a contender. We all know better now. Then there was Switzerland and Romania (who beat the U.S. in front of 90,000 American fans).

And then in ’98, looking back, Germany, Iran and Yugoslavia was not a bad hand. Sure we all winced at the thought of playing Germany, the defending champs of Europe at the time ... but you’d take that German team 100 times out of 100 over this Portugal team. Surely, you’d rather play Iran in France than South Korea in South Korea. And, for your final opponent, Yugoslavia and Poland is probably a wash.

So, I don’t have a good feeling about the U.S. chances. Clearly, and I repeat the word “clearly” they are the underdogs in their group. Just telling you all my opinions before the Olympics writers from the papers around the country switch back to soccer for a month and try to write how the U.S. once again disgraced itself in the World Cup.

Three and out.

Is the U.S. getting better? Yeah, but the World Cup’s not getting easier.

Jeff Bradley is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine. E-mail him at jeff.bradley@espnmag.com.