Correct me if I'm wrong, but a pretty big soccer tournament gets underway Friday in a faraway land. Thirty-two countries representing every continent on the planet.

Ring a bell?

It's incredible as you get older how fast four years can pass. Seems like only last week I was watching Italia '90. Seems like just yesterday I was in Giants Stadium watching Bulgaria play Mexico, and then Germany, and then Italy. When I forked over the money for second round games, little did I know I'd be getting to know guys named Stoitchkov and Kiriakov on a personal basis. And, man, it seems like only a couple of hours ago I was sitting in a bar with fellow ESPN The Magazine staffers watching Zinedine Zidane soar for a pair of headers in France's 3-0 rout of Brazil.

	Despite the rumors, there isn't chocolate inside.

And, wouldn't you know it? Here we are again.

As I think back over those past dozen years, I sometimes cannot believe how far the United States has come as a soccer-playing country. In '90, we sent a bunch of college boys to Italy. What else were we to do? And we got spanked. The only moral victory that came out of the experience was when our boys played the hosts from Italy in Rome, with the world predicting a record score -- double digits? -- we lost 1-0 and even came close to tying the match when then-striker Peter Vermes' close-range shot off a rebound was saved by Walter Zenga's butt cheeks.

In '94, when we had this odd group, made up mostly of "full-time" national team players, we learned what the expression "the ball is round" means. Playing in front of our home fans, we squeaked out a draw with Switzerland, thanks to the greatest free kick Eric Wynalda ever hit in his life, pulled out a victory over Colombia, thanks to an own goal, and despite losing the last two games -- to Romania and Brazil -- without scoring another goal, walked away with our heads held high that the US had made it to the second round.

And then in '98, finally with a team of players who competed regularly in professional leagues around the world, including our very own MLS, we learned that the game is also cruel. An innocent-looking header off a German corner kick somehow slips in between defender Mike Burns' arm and the goalpost. Then, what looks to be a sure goal on a header by Frankie Hejduk is repelled by the German keeper. A quick German counter -- ending with a goal by Juergen Klinsmann -- later, and the US has lost 2-0.

Then, in a must-win game against Iran, the US hits posts, squanders chance after chance, only to see Iran counter for two goals and a 2-1 victory that ends the American dream quickly. All that's left for the Yanks is a dreary loss to Yugoslavia and some unsavory backlash from veteran players against coach Steve Sampson.

Personally, I never bought the whole "low point in American soccer" angle so many went with in '98. How could I feel that way when, going into the tournament, I thought the US would need a break or two to beat Germany and would be absolutely helpless if they could not secure three points against Iran? And in that Iran game, with the pressure squarely on the Americans to win, something happened that is really very common in soccer -- the team that was willing to absorb the pressure came out on top.

The low point was the anti-Sampson stuff that came out at the end of the tournament. The soccer was actually decent, in my opinion, anyway. I did not see the US as a logical pick to advance when France '98 began, so how could I bash the team when it went three-and-out?

Which brings us to this year's tournament.

It seems everyone agrees that, on paper, Portugal is the class of Group D. I happen to agree, which makes the US's first game what I call a "break" game. Not a "make or break" game, but a "break" game, meaning the Americans will need to catch a break to get a favorable result. Don't mistake what I'm saying as "the US has no chance." I'm just looking at this match in a way that's similar to the '98 match against Germany. So, we cannot afford to have a ball slip in between a defender's arm and the post, and we cannot afford for a clear-cut scoring chance to be denied by some miracle save.

To get a point, or three, out of the Portugal game, the US has to play smart and organized. The Americans need to make the game difficult for the Portuguese by pressuring their ball movement through the midfield and choosing the perfect moments to counterattack. The US will also have to show prudence should it fall behind, for the difference between losing by one goal or two could be the difference in whether the US advances.

The second match, which has the US taking on South Korea, would be a match the US would be favored to win on a neutral field. But with 80,000 red-clad Korean fans in the stands, the US has to be considered underdogs. It's a road game, plain and simple, and the last time I checked, the US still has trouble against the likes of Guatemala, Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago when it has to play them on the road. Still, if the US wants to advance, it has to go for the jugular and three points here.

But something to consider is this: In the '98 Cup, staring at a must-win game against Iran -- a must-win for both teams -- the US was overly aggressive and the Iranians were able to counterpunch their way to a 2-1 victory. The Koreans will be under a lot of pressure from their fans to win this game and the US would be wise to let the game come to them in the early going.

Finally, the US will conclude Group Play with a match against Poland. And I'm sorry, but when I think of Poland, only two words come to mind. Piotr Nowak. That's right, the 38-year old playmaker for the Chicago Fire. Nowak is no longer on Poland's national team and hasn't been in the last five years.

What does this mean? Well, based on the way Nowak runs past defenders in MLS, it means Poland must have some good talent. I have a difficult time believing Nowak would not be a member of the US side. Anyway, if you're a US fan, you have to hope Poland comes into this match needing a win to advance. If all they need is a tie, I think it will be bleak for the Americans.

So, what's my prediction?

Well, I said when the draw came out that the US would not advance, and I don't see any reason to change that prediction. I see a loss to Portugal, followed by a pair of draws, which will give the US two points and a ticket home. I also said a while back, what I really want to see is the US play some exciting games. If their run up to the Cup -- where players like Landon Donovan, DaMarcus Beasley, Clint Mathis and Josh Wolff all showed some attacking skill -- is any indication, the US can at least provide this.

I'm stocked and re-stocked with coffee. I've got a fresh batch of video tapes.

Let the games begin.

Jeff Bradley is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine. E-mail him at jeff.bradley@espnmag.com.