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There are two ways to assess any rookie class, or any class of players, period. The first is to look at the statistical boards, simply pick the leaders in each category, and anoint them as the best of the bunch. This method makes for a full night's sleep, extra time to work on your golf swing and the kind of blissfully ignorant existence that you serious hoops junkies -- and you know who you are -- have to O.D. on Prozac or Gummi Bears to acquire. The second method is a tad more complicated. It starts with actually watching the players play (or knowing why they're not playing) and taking note of their team's overall quality, their coach, their team's style of play, which unit they're with -- and their role within that unit. Then comes the stats, including minutes played. The true roundball masochist then ponders where the player was picked, the general work ethic of each particular franchise, media attention that might have skewed perception away from reality -- and still agonizes over the fact that he could be selling short Earl Watson or Oscar Torres or Zach Randolph simply because he hasn't seen enough of them. This is all a long-winded way of saying the Shane Battiers and Jamaal Tinsleys will be recognized here but won't get the kind of dreamy love some consider they're due because of their numbers. Conversely, the Troy Murphys and Richard Jeffersons can stand up and be recognized. As ol' Ben Disraeli said, there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. FIRST FIVE
Andrei Kirilenko, Utah Jazz -- Struggling mightily to fit into the Jazz's precise sets while overcoming a language barrier, the Russian made up for it all with surprising athleticism, toughness and all-around skills. Shooting range needs work but gets to the free-throw line more than any other rookie (five attempts/game).
Richard Jefferson, New Jersey Nets -- It's no coincidence that when he sprained his knee, the Nets stumbled at the end of their recent West Coast swing. Arguably the best rookie defender, perfect athlete for the JKidd Flying Circus, provides vital depth.
Zeljko Rebraca, Detroit Pistons -- Getting limited minutes because Cliff Robinson and Ben Wallace have been spectacular, but the 29-year-old Yugoslavian has a nice post game (as he should, given his experience). Skilled 250-pound 7-footers are a vanishing NBA breed.
Pau Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies -- Hey, at least he tries to play D, even if it doesn't always pay off. Plays with his back to the basket and brings the ball up court, showing essential versatility in today's league. One GM said he was superstar material but three years away from being a factor. Cut that forecast in half.
Jamaal Tinsley, Indiana Pacers -- He's here in part because I don't want to deal with the e-mail if he isn't -- and thanks to one monster nationally-televised performance against the ol' bald guy in D.C. Yeah, he's third overall in assists, but he's also 39th in assist/turnover ratio, thanks to 3 miscues a game. He doesn't get to the free-throw line (18th among rookies) and shoots 38 percent. (Yikes, now I'm spouting numbers.) Bottom line -- nice player, a steal as the 27th pick, but the last point guard Isiah Thomas got all warm and fuzzy about was Damon Stoudamire.
BIGGEST SURPRISES
Joe Johnson, Celtics -- Jacks the trey too often and errantly, but it's a team-wide malady. No rookie is more efficient inside the arc (getting out on the break helps) or takes better care of the ball (top turnover/assist ratio). Almost makes up for Kedrick Brown and Joe Forte. Almost.
Troy Murphy, Warriors -- Most efficient rookie rebounder, despite routinely being matched up against centers. Gets to the free-throw line, knows the playbook and has the ups to throw down (ask Dale Davis).
Tinsley, Pacers -- See above.
Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs -- Gets the ball where coach Gregg Popovich wants it, which is why he's starting. Small frame (6'1", 190) could affect his durability, but he's surprisingly quick and, for the most part, stays within his game.
JURY STILL OUT Shane Battier, Grizzlies -- Numbers look great, but 40 minutes a night on a bad team will do that (think Ron Harper on the Clips). Will always have a job but the polish is already there. I don't see how he gets significantly better. Brendan Haywood, Wizards -- Biggest knock on him was his work ethic and toughness. He cracked the rotation by blocking shots and finishing strong around the cup but the softness is still evident on D. Gerald Wallace, Sacramento Kings -- Saw his 20-point, nine-board performance vs. the Grizzlies. Also saw him fail to box out second-round rook Antonis Fotsis, giving two of those points right back. That's the kind of mistake that will cost him steady minutes when it counts. Jason Richardson, Warriors -- Frightening hops and frightful decision-making. Anybody this quick should be around the rim. The Larry Hughes experiment at point guard is hurting him, but he was picked too high and has too much raw ability to be such a non-factor.
DISAPPOINTMENT
Eddie Griffin, Rockets -- With all their injuries, he should be mimicking Gasol in Memphis. Glen Rice was impressed with him in training camp. Maybe that explains it.
DON'T GIVE UP YET Rodney White, Pistons -- Hasn't cracked the rotation in Detroit, but he's in the Kenyon Martin mold.
Kwame Brown, Wizards; Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry, Bulls -- They were picked high because they have the raw goods. They've shown it in flashes; give them another summer and there will be more.
ONE MORE THING I thought there was supposed to be a huge difference between Jason and Jarron Collins. Wasn't Jason supposed to be the better one? Ric Bucher covers the NBA for ESPN The Magazine. E-mail him at ric.bucher@espnmag.com. |
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