College Basketball Bubble Watch

Didn't play on Thursday? Congratulations! You're the day's big winner!

By Mark Schlabach
ESPN.com

Editor's note: This file has been updated to include all games through Thursday, March 11. RPI numbers will be not updated until Friday morning.

Who were the biggest winners on a day when so many NCAA tournament bubble teams went one-and-done in their conference tournaments?

How about the teams that didn't play on Thursday? Teams like Illinois and Ole Miss, which don't open conference tourney play until Friday. Surely, A-10 teams like Dayton, Rhode Island and Saint Louis were feeling better about their NCAA at-large odds while watching bubbles pop around the country from their hotel rooms in Atlantic City, N.J.

How bad was the bubble carnage on Thursday? UAB barely mustered a fight in its 58-44 loss to Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA tourney, and before that, Memphis lost to Houston 66-65 on a game-winning shot with five seconds left on the same court. Stanford rolled over Arizona State 70-61 in the Pac-10 tourney, and West Virginia's Da'Sean Butler put a fork in any remote at-large chances Cincinnati had with a 3-pointer at the buzzer in the Mountaineers' 54-51 win in the Big East tournament.

Even San Diego State's shaky 72-71 win over Colorado State in the Mountain West tournament looked better with so many other bubble teams losing.

With so many of those teams seemingly falling off the board, California, UNLV and Utah State moved from "should be in" to "lock" status after winning their games on Thursday. And Georgia Tech was elevated to the "should be in" level after defeating North Carolina 62-58 in the ACC tournament.

The Blazers' 14-points loss to Southern Miss was probably the most damaging defeat of the day. UAB has only one victory over an RPI top-50 foe, defeating Butler 67-57 at home on Dec. 22, and it beat only three other top-100 opponents. That resume' simply isn't good enough to garner an at-large bid, especially after the Blazers were swept by Memphis during the regular season. The Tigers' resume isn't great either, but they stay on the board because of attrition elsewhere.

So after Thursday's action, here's where the bubble stands, if we assume the following:

• Teams that already have earned "lock" or "should be in" status win the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC tournaments.
• UTEP wins the Conference USA tournament.
• Richmond, Temple or Xavier wins the A-10 tournament.
• New Mexico, BYU or UNLV wins the Mountain West tournament.
• Utah State wins the WAC tournament.

If all of the above actually happen, and we add those 10 automatic bids to the 21 automatic bids that will be awarded to conferences not represented in Bubble Watch, we'll have our 31 automatic bids. After we include the remaining teams with "lock" or "should be in" designation, we'll be at 60 bids.

That would leave only five available at-large bids for the 13 teams currently sitting in "work to do."