College Basketball Bubble Watch
Didn't play on Thursday? Congratulations! You're the day's big winner!
ESPN.com
Editor's note: This file has been updated to include all games through Thursday, March 11. RPI numbers will be not updated until Friday morning.
Who were the biggest winners on a day when so many NCAA tournament bubble teams went one-and-done in their conference tournaments?
How about the teams that didn't play on Thursday? Teams like Illinois and Ole Miss, which don't open conference tourney play until Friday. Surely, A-10 teams like Dayton, Rhode Island and Saint Louis were feeling better about their NCAA at-large odds while watching bubbles pop around the country from their hotel rooms in Atlantic City, N.J. How bad was the bubble carnage on Thursday? UAB barely mustered a fight in its 58-44 loss to Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA tourney, and before that, Memphis lost to Houston 66-65 on a game-winning shot with five seconds left on the same court. Stanford rolled over Arizona State 70-61 in the Pac-10 tourney, and West Virginia's Da'Sean Butler put a fork in any remote at-large chances Cincinnati had with a 3-pointer at the buzzer in the Mountaineers' 54-51 win in the Big East tournament. Even San Diego State's shaky 72-71 win over Colorado State in the Mountain West tournament looked better with so many other bubble teams losing. With so many of those teams seemingly falling off the board, California, UNLV and Utah State moved from "should be in" to "lock" status after winning their games on Thursday. And Georgia Tech was elevated to the "should be in" level after defeating North Carolina 62-58 in the ACC tournament. The Blazers' 14-points loss to Southern Miss was probably the most damaging defeat of the day. UAB has only one victory over an RPI top-50 foe, defeating Butler 67-57 at home on Dec. 22, and it beat only three other top-100 opponents. That resume' simply isn't good enough to garner an at-large bid, especially after the Blazers were swept by Memphis during the regular season. The Tigers' resume isn't great either, but they stay on the board because of attrition elsewhere. So after Thursday's action, here's where the bubble stands, if we assume the following: • Teams that already have earned "lock" or "should be in" status win the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC tournaments.• UTEP wins the Conference USA tournament.
• Richmond, Temple or Xavier wins the A-10 tournament.
• New Mexico, BYU or UNLV wins the Mountain West tournament.
• Utah State wins the WAC tournament. If all of the above actually happen, and we add those 10 automatic bids to the 21 automatic bids that will be awarded to conferences not represented in Bubble Watch, we'll have our 31 automatic bids. After we include the remaining teams with "lock" or "should be in" designation, we'll be at 60 bids. That would leave only five available at-large bids for the 13 teams currently sitting in "work to do."
| Atlantic Coast Conference | |
| Teams that should be in: Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech [20-11 (7-9), RPI: 43, SOS: 18] Even if the Yellow Jackets don't win another game at the ACC tournament, they might be able to take the back door into the NCAAs after defeating defending national champion North Carolina on Thursday. The No. 7-seeded Yellow Jackets play No. 2 seed Maryland in Friday's quarterfinals and a win over the Terrapins would certainly be enough to earn them an at-large bid. But because of the carnage taking place in other conference tournaments, the Yellow Jackets are suddenly sitting in pretty good shape. Georgia Tech has four victories over RPI top-50 foes (home wins over Duke, Clemson, Siena and Wake Forest) and is certainly talented enough to pass the eye test. But the Yellow Jackets lost five of their last seven regular-season games and went 3-8 in true road games. Tech is 4-7 against RPI top-50 foes and 8-8 against the top 100. | Locks |
| Big East Conference | |
| Work left to do: Seton Hall
Seton Hall [19-12 (9-9), RPI: 59, SOS: 29] The Pirates went 1-1 in the Big East tournament, beating Providence and losing to Notre Dame. Seton Hall's at-large chances are probably slim at this point, but its schedule strength and four RPI top-50 victories will keep it in the discussion for now. The Pirates have four high-quality victories, beating Pittsburgh, Louisville and Notre Dame at home and Cornell on the road. The Hall is 4-9 against RPI top-50 foes and 6-12 against the top 100. Seven of its 12 losses came against teams that are ranked in the top 15 of the RPI, and only three of them were decided by more than 10 points. In fact, Seton Hall hasn't lost to an opponent ranked worse than No. 69 in the RPI. The Pirates won seven of their last 10 games, but only one of those victories -- a 90-87 over Notre Dame at home on Feb. 11 -- came against an opponent that didn't finish in the bottom four of the Big East standings. | Locks |
| Big Ten Conference | |
| Work left to do: Illinois, Minnesota
Illinois [18-13 (10-8), RPI: 74, SOS: 42] Illinois' late-season collapse is complete after it lost to Wisconsin 72-57 at home on Sunday, its fifth defeat in six games. The Illini are 4-8 against RPI top-50 foes and 5-10 against the top 100. Illinois' high-end victories over Vanderbilt (home), Wisconsin (road), Michigan State (home) and Clemson (road) and its 6-4 record in true road games might help its chances. But the NCAA selection committee might not like the fact that 13 of its 18 victories came against teams which are ranked No. 113 or worse in the RPI ratings. The Illini are the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis and will play No. 4 seed Wisconsin on Friday. They need that one. Minnesota [19-12 (9-9), RPI: 76, SOS: 47] After routing the Nittany Lions, the Gophers still have some work to do in Indy. At the very least, Minnesota probably needs to keep the score close against Michigan State on Friday and hope Illinois gets blown out by Wisconsin. Minnesota is carrying a 62-60 victory at Illinois on Feb. 27, which might help with the NCAA selection committee. The Gophers have three high-end victories, having beaten Wisconsin (home), Butler (neutral) and Ohio State (home). Minnesota is 3-6 against RPI top-50 foes, 4-7 against the top 100 and 3-7 in true road games. The Gophers have five losses to RPI sub-100 opponents, including an ugly 83-55 defeat at Michigan on March 2. The Gophers have won five of their past seven games. | Locks |
| Pac-12 Conference | |
| Work left to do: Washington, Arizona State
Washington [22-9 (11-7), RPI: 50, SOS: 69] The Huskies did what Arizona State couldn't do on Thursday -- win their quarterfinal game in the Pac-10 tourney. Washington beat two RPI top-50 opponents, defeating Texas A&M 73-64 at home on Dec. 22 and California 84-69 at home on Jan. 6. The Huskies are 2-2 against RPI top-50 foes and 7-5 against the top 100. Washington split games against Arizona State, defeating the Sun Devils 79-56 at home and losing to them 68-51 on the road. The Huskies have won 10 of 13 games going into Friday's Pac-10 semifinal game against Stanford. It wouldn't be a lock, but a U-Dub trip to the Pac-10 title game could be enough to snag a second at-large bid for the league. Arizona State [22-10 (12-6), RPI: 55, SOS: 79] Even after their nine-point loss to the Cardinal on Thursday, we can't take the Sun Devils completely off the board because so many other bubble teams lost. But Arizona State probably faces long odds in getting an at-large bid. It has only one victory over an RPI top-50 opponent, beating San Diego State 55-52 at home on Dec. 19. In fact, the Sun Devils have only two other wins over RPI top-100 foes, having beaten Washington at home and Arizona on the road. Of the Sun Devils' 22 victories, 19 came against teams which are ranked No. 102 or worse in the RPI standings, including six against sub-200 teams. The Sun Devils are 1-5 against RPI top-50 foes, 3-7 against the top 100 and 5-5 in true road games. The loss to Stanford was ASU's third to a sub-100 opponent. | Locks |
| Southeastern Conference | |
| Work left to do: Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
Florida [21-11 (9-7), RPI: 56, SOS: 34] The Gators' nine-point victory over the Tigers probably didn't help their at-large chances all that much, but at least they didn't go one-and-done like so many other bubble teams. Florida went 9-7 record in SEC play during the regular season. The Gators are 3-8 against RPI top-50 foes, but those three are very good: beating Tennessee (home), Michigan State (neutral) and Florida State (home). Eight of their 11 losses came against teams that are ranked No. 25 or better in the RPI ratings. The Gators will have to overcome one ugly eyesore -- a 67-66 loss at home to No. 213 South Alabama on Dec. 22. Ole Miss [21-9 (9-7), RPI: 57, SOS: 84] The Rebels saved whatever NCAA at-large chances they have left by coming back from a nine-point deficit in the second half to win at Arkansas 68-66 on March 6. The Rebs finished 9-7 in SEC play, but were swept by fellow SEC bubble team Mississippi State and lost at home against Florida. Ole Miss ended the season with a four-game winning streak. It has two high-end victories, beating Kansas State 86-74 in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off on Nov. 20 and UTEP 91-81 in overtime in Southaven, Miss., on Dec. 16. Five of Ole Miss' nine losses came against teams that are ranked in the top 25 of the RPI ratings and it has only one loss to a sub-100 opponent. But 14 of the Rebels' 21 victories came against teams that are ranked No. 149 or worse in the RPI ratings. The Rebels earned a bye in the first round of the SEC tournament and will play the Tennessee in Nashville on Friday. Mississippi State [21-10 (9-7), RPI: 67, SOS: 111] After losing their last two games, including a 75-59 defeat at home against Tennessee on March 6 in which they trailed 17-0, the Bulldogs probably have very little chance of earning an NCAA at-large bid. In fact, they would probably have to reach the championship game of the SEC tournament to have any chance at all. But Mississippi State probably has to stay in the bubble discussion because it swept games against fellow SEC bubble team Ole Miss and has nearly an identical resume (minus a November victory over Kansas State). MSU's only win over an RPI top-50 opponent came against Old Dominion in the South Padre Island Invitational in late November. Besides sweeping rival Ole Miss and beating the Monarchs, the Bulldogs' best victories came against South Carolina (road), Wright State (home) and Alabama (home). Frankly, that isn't nearly enough for an at-large bid. The Bulldogs are 1-4 against RPI top-50 opponents and 7-6 against the top 100. Worse, MSU has four losses against RPI sub-100 teams, having lost to No. 135 Western Kentucky (road), No. 141 Rider (home), No. 149 Auburn (road) and No. 154 Arkansas (road). The Bulldogs earned a first-round bye in the SEC tournament and play Florida on Friday. | Locks |
| Mountain West Conference | |
| Work left to do: San Diego State
San Diego State [23-8 (11-5), RPI: 34, SOS: 65] SDSU struggled to put away the Rams, before finally winning on D.J. Gay's two fouls shots with 23 seconds to play. The Aztecs certainly couldn't have afforded to lose to Colorado State, but they might be in decent shape after winning for the ninth time in 11 games. San Diego State plays No. 1 seed New Mexico in Friday's semifinals. The Aztecs beat the Lobos 74-64 at home on Jan. 5, one of their two wins over RPI top-50 foes. They also beat UNLV 68-58 at home on Feb. 13. SDSU's biggest problem? It has only one other win over an RPI top-100 opponent, beating Arizona at home on Dec. 12. Of the Aztecs' 21 victories, 18 came against teams which are ranked No. 101 or worse in the RPI ratings, including six over sub-200 teams. | Locks |
| Atlantic 10 Conference | |
| Work left to do: Rhode Island, Dayton, Saint Louis
Rhode Island [22-8 (9-7), RPI: 41, SOS: 97] URI defeated Saint Joseph's 87-76 at home in the first round Tuesday night, but it probably will have to do more than that to earn an at-large bid. The No. 5-seeded Rams play 4-seed Saint Louis in the second round in Atlantic City on Friday. The Rams really hurt their NCAA at-large chances by losing at Massachusetts 69-67 on Saturday. It was URI's second loss to an RPI sub-100 opponent in a week, after it also lost at St. Bonaventure 81-74 on Feb. 27. The Rams have only two victories over RPI top-50 opponents, beating Oklahoma State (neutral court) and Dayton (road). Rhode Island is 2-4 against RPI top-50 opponents, is 6-6 against the top 100 and has an 8-6 record in true road games. But after suffering two bad losses in the last week of the regular season, the Rams might have to reach the championship game of the Atlantic 10 tournament to have a chance on Selection Sunday. Dayton [20-11 (8-8), RPI: 49, SOS: 31] Dayton beat George Washington 70-60 at home in the first round Tuesday night, but it needs to do more after limping down the stretch in the regular season. The seventh-seeded Flyers play No. 2 seed Xavier in Atlantic City on Friday, and we're guessing the Musketeers will be motivated by their 90-65 loss at UD on Feb. 6. A big problem for Flyers: Will the NCAA selection committee take them over Saint Louis, which finished three games better than Dayton in the A-10 standings and swept two games in the final month? UD has three high-quality victories, beating Xavier (home), Georgia Tech (neutral) and Old Dominion (home). But Dayton is only 1-6 against RPI top-25 opponents, 3-7 against the top 50 and 5-9 against the top 100. The Flyers also will have to overcome one eyesore on their résumé: a 60-59 loss at RPI No. 184 Saint Joseph's on Jan. 23. Saint Louis [20-10 (11-5), RPI: 83, SOS: 114] The Billikens, who finished fourth in the A-10 standings with an 11-5 record, received a first-round bye and will play Rhode Island on Friday. Saint Louis defeated the Rams 62-57 at home on Feb. 17. It could really help itself by sweeping the Rams, having already swept Dayton. Saint Louis won eight of its last 10 games during the regular season. The Billikens are 2-3 against RPI top-50 foes, having defeated Richmond 63-58 at home on Jan. 9 and Rhode Island 62-57 at home on Feb. 17. SLU is 4-3 against RPI top-50 foes, 4-7 against the RPI top 100 and 5-5 in true road games. The Billikens will have to overcome three losses against RPI sub-100 opponents, falling to No. 113 Iowa State (neutral), No. 138 George Washington (road) and No. 187 Bowling Green (road). They don't have a marquee out-of-league win (their best victory came against RPI No. 136 Belmont) and their nonconference schedule was ranked No. 230 nationally. | Locks |
| Other at-large contenders | |
| Work left to do: UAB, Memphis Utah State defeated Boise State 84-60 in the quarterfinals of the WAC tournament on Thursday, and with 25 victories and a No. 30 RPI rating, it's hard to imagine the Aggies being left out of the NCAA field with everything else that's happened. Of course, Utah State can earn an automatic bid by winning the WAC tourney. After Memphis and UAB both lost on Thursday, C-USA again looks to be a one-team league if UTEP wins the C-USA tournament. UAB [23-8 (11-5), RPI: 40, SOS: 88] The Blazers really hurt their at-large chances by blowing a 14-point lead in the second half of a 52-50 loss at UTEP on Saturday. UAB lost on Derrick Caracter's dunk with one second left. The Blazers were swept by the Miners and Memphis, which won't help their chances if only two Conference USA teams go to the NCAA tournament. UAB has one victory over an RPI top-50 opponent, beating Butler 67-57 at home on Dec. 22. The Blazers also have so-so victories over Marshall (road), Cincinnati (home), Tulsa (home) and Georgia (home). UAB is 1-5 against RPI top-50 foes and 5-6 against the top 100. It was competitive in losses against top competition, losing to UTEP in double overtime at home and to Memphis by five points at home. The Blazers are the No. 3 seed in the C-USA tournament in Tulsa, Okla., and on Thursday will play the winner of the opening-round game between No. 6 seed Southern Miss and No. 11 seed Tulane. Memphis [23-9 (13-3), RPI: 46, SOS: 63] The Tigers probably have the weakest case of all the bubble candidates, but we're not quite ready to relegate them to the NIT. Memphis' 66-65 loss to RPI No. 144 Houston was its second against the Cougars and third against an RPI top-100 opponent. Worse, the Tigers have only two victories over RPI top-50 opponents, sweeping two games against UAB. Their next-best wins came against No. 54 Oakland (home), No. 66 Tulsa (home and road), No. 67 Marshall (road) and No. 84 IUPUI (home). The Tigers are 2-5 against RPI top-50 foes, 7-5 against the top 100 and 7-4 in true road games. That looks like an NIT resume, but the Tigers might have a ray of hope on Selection Sunday. | Auto bids Locks |
ESPN Conversations
BUBBLE WATCH ARCHIVE
- With work along the bubble line largely complete, all that's left is the sweating (03/10/12)
- After a topsy-turvy Friday, who's in the best position as Selection Sunday draws near? (03/09/12)
- Does anyone want to dance? All over the country, bubble teams fall by the wayside (03/08/12)
- Wednesday was OK, but Thursday is when the bubble action really heats up (03/07/12)
- As the bubble battle lines are drawn, coaches kick the campaigning into high gear (03/06/12)
- Champ Week means there's a whole lot of sweating going on along the bubble line (03/05/12)
- Cincinnati Bearcats pose interesting case study in computer numbers (03/02/12)
- What do we mean when we say 'every game counts'? (02/28/12)
- The curious case of Northwestern, the sentimental bubble favorite (02/24/12)
- Bubble teams have small window to make its case (02/21/12)
- For better or worse, the RPI still plays a major role in the bubble world (02/16/12)
- Yes, it's a cliché, but the Bubble is soft (02/14/12)
- UConn continues to be a riddle wrapped up in an enigma (02/07/12)
- The great Bubble Watch adventure begins (01/31/12)


















































