Diamond Mind is a highly-realistic strategy-oriented computer baseball game. Founder Tom Tippett and a team of top baseball analysts -- Gary Gillette, Stuart Shea and Zack Scott -- are presenting detailed reviews of each team's performance in 2000 (with projected and actual statistics for all key players) along with their thoughts about the outlook for the 2001 season.
This article takes a look at how the Cincinnati Reds did in the 2000 season
relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page at the Diamond Mind web site.
Capsule summary
Projected Actual
Runs for 825 825
Runs allowed 725 765
Run Margin 100 60
Wins 90 85
Pythagorean wins 91 87
Placement 2nd 2nd
One player does not make a team. When GM Jim Bowden traded for Ken Griffey Jr., it seemed everyone jumped on the bandwagon, picking the Reds to win the NL Central. (I admit that I was looking forward to a Griffey versus Big Mac matchup in the NLCS). But people often forget that a single position player can only make an offensive contribution about 11 percent of the time (1/9 of the plate appearances), leaving the rest of the team to provide a huge chunk of the offense. Also lost in the hoopla was that the Reds had lost Greg Vaughn's big bat to Tampa Bay.
The 96-win Reds of 1999 relied heavily on their veteran starters, deep bullpen, and breakthrough performances by their young pitchers. While their bullpen stayed strong, the rest of the staff disappointed, putting them in an eight-game hole at the break. Fans felt Bowden conceded the division to St. Louis when he traded Denny Neagle to the Yankees, but the inexperienced pitchers stepped up and the bats caught on fire, leading them to a strong finish. But the Cardinals played better, and the failure to meet the over-hyped expectations made manager Jack McKeon an easy scapegoat. The 1999 NL Manager of the Year was fired at season's end.
Key position players
With Griffey aboard, Cincinnati fans were confident that the league's fourth best offense would improve in 2000. But the excitement surrounding the Griffey deal blurred the fact that the Reds' off-season gains weren't much better than their losses. Compared to 1999, Junior played slightly better than Greg Vaughn, and Dante Bichette was worse than Jeffrey Hammonds and only as productive as Mike Cameron. Eddie Taubensee's return to mediocrity along with injuries to Sean Casey, Barry Larkin, and Aaron Boone didn't help while Chris Stynes, Alex Ochoa, and Michael Tucker showed why they deserve a shot at full-time roles. Cinci's powerful attack (200 homeruns for the second straight year) resulted in the NL's fifth best offense (40 runs less than the previous year).
Eddie Taubensee, c, age 31
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 484 147 30 1 21 68 90 1 45 3 90 0 0 .304 .360 .500 .860 88
Prorated Cin 262 80 16 1 11 37 49 1 24 2 49 0 0 .304 .360 .500 .860 48
Actual Cin 266 71 12 0 6 29 24 2 21 1 44 0 0 .267 .324 .380 .704 32
Taubensee capped off a career year in 1999 with a torrid final month (.386 AVG, 7 HR), so he entered 2000 with hopes of continued success. But he never found his stroke, lost 141 points off his 1999 slugging percentage, and hit his lowest homerun total in 8 years. In late July, Taubensee ruptured a disk in his back while running to second base, cutting short his disappointing season. After the season, the Reds picked up his option then promptly sent him to Cleveland in return for pitching. Taubensee will split time with Einar Diaz in 2001.
Benito Santiago, c, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 91 22 5 1 2 7 9 0 7 1 19 0 0 .242 .293 .385 .678 10
Prorated Cin 255 62 14 3 6 20 25 0 20 3 53 0 0 .242 .293 .385 .678 27
Actual Cin 252 66 11 1 8 22 45 1 19 8 45 2 2 .262 .310 .409 .719 31
Taubensee's injury allowed Santiago to play about half a season's worth of games, and he responded with a significant defensive contribution. Gunning down 41 percent of runners attempting to steal was a huge improvement over Taubensee's 22 percent and Santiago's best mark since turning 30. Even when he wasn't throwing runners out, opponents respected Santiago's presence behind the plate, attempting steals half as often as they did against Taubensee. But the 15-year veteran's offensive production did not justify a new contract, and Santiago remains unsigned.
Jason LaRue, c, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 68 16 4 0 2 9 9 1 5 0 14 0 1 .235 .293 .382 .676 7
Prorated Cin 97 23 6 0 3 13 13 1 7 0 20 0 1 .235 .293 .382 .676 10
Actual Cin 98 23 3 0 5 12 12 4 5 2 19 0 0 .235 .299 .418 .717 12
Triple-A's top defensive catcher in 1999 will be handed the starting job in 2001. Although LaRue has never proven he can hit above AA, he did show decent homerun power in his 98 major-league atbats last season. So far his arm has been slightly above average in the NL, but his defense may not be enough to compensate for poor hitting. The Reds signed Kelly Stinnett and Matt Walbeck in case they grow impatient with LaRue.
Sean Casey, 1b, age 25
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 522 170 39 3 20 92 94 7 59 8 75 0 1 .326 .399 .527 .925 110
Prorated Cin 481 157 36 3 18 85 87 6 54 7 69 0 1 .326 .399 .527 .925 101
Actual Cin 480 151 33 2 20 69 85 7 52 4 80 1 0 .315 .385 .517 .902 95
Casey missed the season's first three weeks due to a broken thumb, perhaps explaining his poor numbers through May (.213, 2 HR, 9 RBI). Once healthy, he was outstanding, hitting .351 with 18 home runs the rest of the way, including a 10-homer September (not to mention a .378 average and 32 RBI) to help lead the Reds to an 18-11 record in the final month.
Hal Morris, 1b, age 35
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 95 27 6 0 1 11 10 0 8 1 13 0 0 .284 .337 .379 .715 12
Prorated Cin 71 20 4 0 1 8 7 0 6 1 10 0 0 .284 .337 .379 .715 9
Actual Cin 63 14 2 1 2 9 6 1 12 3 10 0 0 .222 .351 .381 .732 9
Prorated Det 114 32 7 0 1 13 12 0 10 1 16 0 0 .284 .337 .379 .715 14
Actual Det 106 33 7 0 1 15 8 0 19 1 16 0 0 .311 .416 .406 .822 19
Prorated Tot 185 52 12 0 2 21 19 0 16 2 25 0 0 .284 .337 .379 .715 23
Actual Tot 169 47 9 1 3 24 14 1 31 4 26 0 0 .278 .391 .396 .788 27
Morris is the only player in the top 25 active career batting average leaders (his .304 AVG ranks 21st) who didn't have a starting job in 2000 and currently has no job for 2001. One reason for his unemployment is a lack of power. Since injuring his shoulder in 1997, Morris has hit homers at a rate of only 1 per 215 atbats (pre-injury rate was 1 per 41 AB). In late July, the Reds sent him to Detroit where he played significantly more due to Tony Clark's back problems.
Pokey Reese, 2b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 629 170 35 6 11 90 60 6 46 3 100 34 8 .270 .324 .397 .721 85
Prorated Cin 524 142 29 5 9 75 50 5 38 3 83 28 7 .270 .324 .397 .721 71
Actual Cin 518 132 20 6 12 76 46 6 45 5 86 29 3 .255 .319 .386 .705 69
Reese's steadily improving offensive production experienced a setback in 2000, dropping 30 batting average points from the previous year. While nagging injuries (ankle, groin, hamstring) may explain his poor June-August performance (approximately .260 OBP), they didn't seem to affect his baserunning (league-leading 91 percent SB success) or his excellent range. But Reese needs to get on base by hitting the ball on the ground more to use his speed. His .319 OBP was last among everyday NL second basemen and must improve before he's considered a top player at his position.
Aaron Boone, 3b, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 530 139 30 5 12 70 74 9 39 2 91 17 6 .262 .320 .406 .725 71
Prorated Cin 299 78 17 3 7 39 42 5 22 1 51 10 3 .262 .320 .406 .725 40
Actual Cin 291 83 18 0 12 44 43 10 24 1 52 6 1 .285 .356 .471 .826 51
Boone's game has improved across the board with each year of experience, but his progress was halted in July by a torn ACL. In his half-season, Boone improved from the previous year by hitting for more power (only 2 fewer home runs in 40 percent less time), walking more frequently, hitting better against lefties (.302 average versus a .243 career average), and playing more consistent defense. If the knee injury doesn't reverse the positive trend, Boone can become a top NL third baseman behind Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, and Phil Nevin.
Chris Stynes, 3b/2b/lf, age 27
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 68 17 2 0 1 10 8 0 6 0 7 2 0 .250 .311 .324 .634 7
Prorated Cin 381 95 11 0 6 56 45 0 34 0 39 11 0 .250 .311 .324 .634 41
Actual Cin 380 127 24 1 12 71 40 2 32 2 54 5 2 .334 .386 .497 .883 74
Heading into the All-Star break, Boone's injury thrust Stynes into the everyday third base job. At that point, Stynes was making the most of his limited opportunity as a utility player and occasional starting second baseman, hitting .449 with 6 homers in only 98 atbats. He obviously didn't maintain that pace as a regular but still managed to hit .294 the rest of the way and play very good defense. As part of this off-season's effort to cut payroll, the Reds traded the arbitration-eligible Stynes to Boston for Donnie Sadler and Michael Coleman. In 2001, Sadler or Wilton Guerrero may fill the utility role Stynes leaves open, while he heads to Boston with a chance to be their third baseman.
Barry Larkin, ss, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 609 175 34 7 14 104 75 2 89 6 69 25 6 .287 .378 .435 .814 106
Prorated Cin 384 110 21 4 9 66 47 1 56 4 44 16 4 .287 .378 .435 .814 67
Actual Cin 396 124 26 5 11 71 41 1 48 0 31 14 6 .313 .389 .487 .876 75
When healthy, Larkin was very good, but he missed a month with a hand injury early in the year and then saw his season ended in early September by arthroscopic knee surgery. His performance was consistent with his entire career; it's the 9th time in 15 years that Larkin has batted over .300. Despite his age, Cincinnati signed Larkin to a 3-year contract extension which should allow him to finish his career as a lifetime Red and take the field with Griffey when the Reds move into their new ballpark (est. 2003).
Juan Castro, ss/2b/3b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 68 15 3 0 1 7 6 0 5 0 11 0 0 .221 .270 .309 .579 6
Prorated Cin 221 49 10 0 3 23 20 0 16 0 36 0 0 .221 .270 .309 .579 18
Actual Cin 224 54 12 2 4 20 23 0 14 1 33 0 2 .241 .283 .366 .649 21
While he can't hit a lick, Castro proved to be a defensive upgrade at short when Larkin went down. He showed excellent range and made only one error -- a fielding percentage (.994) better than league-leader Rickey Gutierrez. Castro also covered for Reese and Boone when they went down, making few mistakes. His versatility and glove work at short earned him a two-year contract extension.
Chris Sexton, ss/2b/3b, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 65 15 2 0 0 8 4 0 9 0 9 1 1 .231 .324 .262 .586 6
Prorated Cin 102 24 3 0 0 13 6 0 14 0 14 2 2 .231 .324 .262 .586 9
Actual Cin 100 21 4 0 0 9 10 2 13 1 12 4 2 .210 .310 .250 .560 8
Like Castro, Sexton saw significantly more time due to injuries to the starting infielders, but Sexton's glove may not be good enough to keep around. While he's hit for a high average in Triple-A over the last two years, Sexton hasn't hit in the majors and is nothing special in the field. With the acquisitions of Donnie Sadler and Wilton Guerrero, Sexton may see very little time with the big club in 2001.
Gookie Dawkins, ss, age 21
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 68 17 3 0 1 10 8 1 6 0 13 1 1 .250 .320 .338 .658 7
Prorated Cin 40 10 2 0 1 6 5 1 4 0 8 1 1 .250 .320 .338 .658 4
Actual Cin 41 9 2 0 0 5 3 0 2 1 7 0 0 .220 .256 .268 .524 2
Dawkins is expected to take over at short when Larkin retires in a few years, leaving huge shoes to fill. While he has had a couple cups of coffee with the Reds over the last two years, Dawkins still hasn't played a game in Triple-A. This season, he took a step backwards after improving in each of his first three years of pro ball, but he'll have plenty of time to develop while Larkin, Castro, and Sadler handle shortstop for the next couple of years.
Dmitri Young, lf/1b, age 26
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 435 132 35 2 15 71 68 2 40 2 78 3 2 .303 .362 .497 .858 77
Prorated Cin 536 163 43 2 18 88 84 2 49 2 96 4 2 .303 .362 .497 .858 94
Actual Cin 548 166 37 6 18 68 88 3 36 6 80 0 3 .303 .346 .491 .837 88
The DH was designed with Young in mind -- he loves to swing the bat (doesn't care much for walks) but can't field. The overweight Young may be able to pass as a first baseman (if Mo Vaughn can, anyone can) but doesn't have the mobility to play the outfield. But a .300 hitter entering his prime has considerable value. The Reds should recognize his value to AL teams, trade Young for pitching, and platoon Michael Tucker and Michael Coleman in left.
Alex Ochoa, lf/rf, age 28
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 67 18 4 1 1 10 8 1 7 0 10 1 1 .269 .347 .403 .750 9
Prorated Cin 246 66 15 4 4 37 29 4 26 0 37 4 4 .269 .347 .403 .750 35
Actual Cin 244 77 21 3 13 50 58 3 24 3 27 8 4 .316 .378 .586 .964 53
After bouncing around to four teams that never gave him 350 plate appearances in a season, it's time for the Reds to let Ochoa be their everyday right fielder. His excellent arm has earned him significant playing time, but his 2000 power outburst indicates he may be ready for full-time duty. Ochoa's last two seasons add up to about one full season's work, totaling 21 homers and 98 RBI while hitting .307 (.392 OBP, .522 SPC). Currently, Ochoa is part of a crowded outfield that includes Young, Griffey, Tucker, and Coleman.
Ken Griffey Jr., cf, age 30
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 576 161 27 3 44 110 122 6 80 13 106 17 4 .280 .371 .566 .937 125
Prorated Cin 547 153 26 3 42 104 116 6 76 12 101 16 4 .280 .371 .566 .937 118
Actual Cin 520 141 22 3 40 100 118 9 94 17 117 6 4 .271 .387 .556 .942 118
The Griffey trade and signing was the big story of the winter. The biggest name in baseball signed at a discounted rate to return to the city in which he grew up to be reunited with his father (a Reds coach) and closer to his family during spring training. Many fans saw this as the final piece to the puzzle, putting the weight of their playoff hopes on Junior's shoulders.
Perhaps the pre-season hype and pressure got to him or maybe it was the adjustment to a new league and new pitchers that resulted in Griffey's slow start (.212 AVG through May). Although he bounced back to put up solid numbers as expected, the media still considered Griffey's first season in Cincinnati a disappointment. Maybe it was below the incredibly high standards he has set for himself, but the media and general public put too much emphasis on superstars.
A star position player in baseball can only do so much, batting once every nine times. It's interesting to note that in Griffey's best month (June -- .304 AVG, 12 HR), the team had their worst record (10-17), and the Reds had their best month (September -- 18-11) with Griffey missing more than half of the month due to a hamstring injury.
Brian L. Hunter, cf/lf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Col 70 17 3 0 1 9 5 0 5 0 11 5 1 .243 .293 .329 .622 7
Prorated Col 211 51 9 0 3 27 15 0 15 0 33 15 3 .243 .293 .329 .622 22
Actual Col 200 55 4 1 1 36 13 1 21 0 31 15 3 .275 .347 .320 .667 25
Prorated Cin 45 11 2 0 1 6 3 0 3 0 7 3 1 .243 .293 .329 .622 5
Actual Cin 40 9 1 0 0 11 1 0 6 0 9 5 0 .225 .319 .250 .569 5
Prorated Tot 256 62 11 0 4 33 18 0 18 0 40 18 4 .243 .293 .329 .622 26
Actual Tot 240 64 5 1 1 47 14 1 27 0 40 20 3 .267 .342 .308 .650 30
Hunter is a speed and defense guy who, for some strange reason, keeps getting opportunities to be an everyday player. His career on-base percentage is a meager .312, yet Houston, Detroit, Seattle, and Colorado have all given Hunter a starting job in the outfield. While he is most valuable as a bench player, Philadelphia may be the 5th team willing to give him more playing time than he deserves if Doug Glanville doesn't play better in 2001.
Dante Bichette, rf, age 36
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 563 146 35 1 18 75 94 2 42 2 83 6 4 .259 .310 .421 .731 71
Prorated Cin 472 122 29 1 15 63 79 2 35 2 70 5 3 .259 .310 .421 .731 59
Actual Cin 461 136 27 2 16 67 76 4 41 3 69 5 2 .295 .353 .466 .819 73
Prorated Bos 112 29 7 0 4 15 19 0 8 0 17 1 1 .259 .310 .421 .731 14
Actual Bos 114 33 5 0 7 13 14 0 8 0 22 0 0 .289 .336 .518 .854 19
Prorated Tot 584 151 36 1 19 78 98 2 44 2 86 6 4 .259 .310 .421 .731 74
Actual Tot 575 169 32 2 23 80 90 4 49 3 91 5 2 .294 .350 .477 .826 92
Shortly after the end of the 1999 season, the Griffey deal didn't seem likely so the Reds acquired Bichette from Colorado as their token "big" off-season move to add punch to the lineup. A few months later, Seattle eased up on their demand of Pokey Reese and made the Griffey deal. Bowden now viewed Bichette as nothing more than an aging, $7 million DH playing in the wrong league and crowding up the outfield.
Leaving Colorado's thin air didn't hurt Bichette as much as expected, but he took away playing time from Ochoa, Young, and Tucker who are younger and better. At the end of August, Bowden dumped Bichette's salary on the desperate Red Sox, receiving a good pitching prospect (Chris Reitsma) in return.
Michael Tucker, rf/lf/cf, age 29
AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC
Projection Cin 187 49 10 2 7 31 25 2 23 2 47 5 2 .262 .347 .449 .797 30
Prorated Cin 284 74 15 3 11 47 38 3 35 3 71 8 3 .262 .347 .449 .797 46
Actual Cin 270 72 13 4 15 55 36 7 44 1 64 13 6 .267 .381 .511 .892 55
Although he only stepped to the plate a little more than 300 times this season, Tucker appeared in all but 14 of the Reds' games. He made the most of his time by posting his best on-base and power numbers to date while playing in a strict platoon role (only 24 atbats versus LHP). Tucker deserves more playing time because of his improved power and patience (best walk rate ever) and very good range as a corner outfielder.
Key pitchers
The 1999 Reds won 96 games on the strength of a powerful offense, solid starting pitching, and a great bullpen. While the offense and bullpen did its part in 2000, four of the five starting pitchers performed below expectations, leaving McKeon to scramble for help. Batters teed off on Steve Parris and Ron Villone, and Pete Harnisch missed 10 starts due to continued shoulder injuries, putting more pressure on Denny Neagle and rookie Rob Bell. By mid-season, Neagle was traded away and Villone demoted to the pen, but Osvaldo Fernandez and Elmer Dessens returned from oblivion (Tommy John surgery and Japan, respectively) to combine for 30 strong starts and earn jobs for 2001.
The Reds began the season with workhorses Scott Williamson, Scott Sullivan, and Danny Graves forming the nucleus of the deepest bullpen in the NL. Although Williamson was moved into the rotation during the year, the relief staff improved thanks to Dennys Reyes' domination of lefties, the addition of Mark Wohlers, and a flash of potential from John Riedling. For the second consecutive year, they finished second in the league in save percentage. Only 30% of their inherited runners were allowed to score, a figure that was third-best in the NL.
Overall, Cincinnati pitching gave up 54 more runs than a year ago, dropping them from the league's 4th best staff to 6th. Once again, they walked a lot of guys (3rd most), but the walks hurt more this year as batters hit 20 batting average points higher than the previous year (league's best .241 opponents average in 1999).
Pete Harnisch, starter, age 33
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 4.23 32 32 12 10 0 198 192 26 63 132 .255 .745
Prorated Cin 4.23 22 22 8 7 0 134 130 18 43 89 .255 .745
Actual Cin 4.74 22 22 8 6 0 131 133 23 46 71 .261 .795
Harnisch has battled through depression, back spasms, and shoulder problems to put together a pretty good career (110-100, 3.84 ERA). But he mistakenly put off shoulder surgery after the 1999 season and missed May and June of 2000 as a result. He struggled through April and ended up on the DL with an 0-4 record and 9.35 ERA. Harnisch strengthened the shoulder and returned to form, going 8-2 with a 3.49 ERA the rest of the way. In 2001, the Reds will depend on Harnisch to lead an inexperienced starting rotation.
Denny Neagle, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 3.65 32 32 14 8 0 202 178 27 59 144 .236 .703
Prorated Cin 3.65 19 19 9 5 0 123 108 16 36 88 .236 .703
Actual Cin 3.52 18 18 8 2 0 118 111 15 50 88 .247 .728
Prorated NYA 3.65 15 15 7 4 0 97 86 13 28 69 .236 .703
Actual NYA 5.81 16 15 7 7 0 91 99 16 31 58 .278 .810
Prorated Tot 3.65 35 35 15 9 0 220 194 29 64 157 .236 .703
Actual Tot 4.52 34 33 15 9 0 209 210 31 81 146 .261 .764
After carrying the Reds through the stretch in 1999, Neagle entered the season as a key to the pitching staff's success. When Cinci traded him for prospects in July, fans felt Bowden was throwing in the towel, but the team actually played better after the deal (43-44 before, 42-33 after).
At the time of the deal, I remember looking closely at Neagle's numbers and thinking they were deceiving because he was walking more guys than normal. I figured his ERA in a DH league could be 4.75-5.00. As a Yankee, he threw more strikes but gave up more hits and homers and went on to contribute very little to their 3rd consecutive World Series victory. Neagle must cut down on the deadly combination of walks and home runs to succeed in Colorado, where he signed a 5-year, $51.5 million contract.
Steve Parris, starter, age 32
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 4.76 32 32 11 11 0 193 199 27 70 152 .268 .782
Prorated Cin 4.76 33 33 11 11 0 199 206 28 72 157 .268 .782
Actual Cin 4.81 33 33 12 17 0 193 227 30 71 117 .294 .858
His first two seasons in a Reds uniform (combined 17-9, 3.60 ERA) earned McKeon's confidence to start Parris in their one game playoff against the Mets to determine the 1999 wild card winner. Since losing that game, it's been downhill for Parris. By August 1st, his record stood at 5-14, but he won 7 straight before losing his final 3 starts of the season. Parris kept his fielders busy by allowing the 5th most hits per 9 innings in the NL but salvaged a respectable ERA by pitching well with men in scoring position, following a career trend (.226 opponents average with men in scoring position).
Perhaps Bowden grew tired of all the baserunners or maybe it was just a financial move, but, for whatever reason, he traded the arbitration-eligible Parris to Toronto for two young pitchers (Leo Estrella and Clayton Andrews) who may contribute in 2001.
Ron Villone, starter, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 3.58 32 32 14 8 0 193 165 14 103 146 .232 .694
Prorated Cin 3.58 25 25 11 6 0 149 128 11 80 113 .232 .694
Actual Cin 5.43 35 23 10 10 0 141 154 22 78 77 .286 .871
Coming off a promising debut as a starter, the Reds had high hopes for the lefty in 2000, and his 6-1 start seemed to indicate they wouldn't be disappointed. But that was the best it got as opposing batters knocked Villone around, hitting homeruns at almost three times the rate of the previous year. By the All-Star break, Villone had lost his job as starter and the confidence of management. After the season, the Reds dealt Villone to Colorado, where he'll need to reduce his homerun rate to have success.
Rob Bell, starter, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 5.92 27 27 8 10 0 157 186 28 63 131 .297 .864
Prorated Cin 5.92 24 24 7 9 0 138 164 25 55 115 .297 .864
Actual Cin 5.00 26 26 7 8 0 140 130 32 73 112 .243 .836
Opponents rocked Bell for 2.1 HR per 9 innings (Jose Lima led the league with 2.2), but the 23-year-old still showed promise by holding opponents to a low batting average. He also showed some control problems, walking 4.7 batters per 9 innings (average is 3.8) and uncorking 11 wild pitches (6th most in NL). Bell was just one of the reasons the Cincinnati staff was the 3rd wildest in the league. With the absence of Parris and Villone, Bell will play a key role in 2001.
Osvaldo Fernandez, starter, age 31
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Actual Cin 3.62 15 14 4 3 0 80 69 6 31 36 .238 .678
When Harnisch went on the DL in early May, Fernandez was given his first major league start since June, 1997. The former Giant battled back from Tommy John surgery (1998) to make several superb starts in his first year as a Red. While his record didn't accurately reflect his effectiveness (thanks to poor run support), Fernandez allowed only 6 home runs in 80 innings (extrapolates to 15 HR in 200 innings) and dominated lefties (.213 AVG). A line drive off his elbow caused him to miss July and August, but Fernandez finished strong, compiling a 1.59 ERA the rest of the way. The Reds are hoping to get a full season's worth of this kind of success in 2001.
Elmer Dessens, middle reliever/starter, age 28
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 5.46 23 0 1 2 0 31 38 5 10 16 .302 .850
Prorated Cin 5.46 107 0 5 9 0 145 176 23 46 74 .302 .850
Actual Cin 4.28 40 16 11 5 1 147 170 10 43 85 .296 .770
The Neagle trade opened the door for Dessens to become a starter, and he responded by winning the most second-half games on the staff (like Neagle, his record was aided by good run support). Dessens was extremely effective at keeping the ball in the park, allowing only .6 HR per 9 innings (Mike Hampton led NL with .4) which is important for a hittable pitcher (.296 AVG). His strong performance earned him a shot at a regular starting job in 2001.
Manny Aybar, long reliever, age 25
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Col 6.05 8 8 2 3 0 42 52 6 17 32 .306 .872
Prorated Col 6.05 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 1 2 .306 .872
Actual Col 16.20 1 0 0 1 0 2 5 1 0 0 .500 1.300
Prorated Cin 6.05 9 9 2 4 0 49 61 7 20 38 .306 .872
Actual Cin 4.83 32 0 1 1 0 50 51 7 22 31 .262 .805
Prorated Flo 6.05 5 5 1 2 0 25 31 4 10 19 .306 .872
Actual Flo 2.63 21 0 1 0 0 27 18 3 13 14 .184 .624
Prorated Tot 6.05 15 15 4 5 0 76 95 11 31 58 .306 .872
Actual Tot 4.31 54 0 2 2 0 79 74 11 35 45 .244 .762
Aybar pitched only two innings with the Rockies before being traded to Cincinnati for Gabe White, a move that definitely benefited Colorado. As a Red, Aybar pitched 3 months of decent long relief (his stats are right in line with his projection if you adjust for the move from Coors to Cinergy Field) before going on the DL with a strained groin. When he had recovered from that injury, the Reds traded him to the Marlins. In Florida, Aybar was very effective and was rewarded with a contract for 2001.
John Riedling, middle reliever, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 5.40 13 0 1 1 0 17 20 3 9 13 .303 .920
Prorated Cin 5.40 11 0 1 1 0 13 16 2 7 11 .303 .920
Actual Cin 2.35 13 0 3 1 1 15 11 1 8 18 .208 .681
Although he only pitched 15.1 innings, Riedling managed to be involved in four decisions and earn a save. While he walked more guys than an average pitcher, Riedling struck out batters at a rate more impressive than his minor league numbers since becoming a full-time reliever in 1999 (139 Ks in 152 innings). In spring training, Riedling will be fighting to make the final bullpen slot.
Mark Wohlers, middle reliever, age 30
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 5.74 13 0 1 1 0 16 14 2 19 17 .246 .832
Prorated Cin 5.74 20 0 2 2 0 24 21 3 29 26 .246 .832
Actual Cin 4.50 20 0 1 2 0 28 19 3 17 20 .192 .641
You have to respect this guy's determination. Since surrendering Jim Leyritz' crushing homerun in the 1996 World Series, Wohlers has seen the end of his marriage, his mother suffer a heart attack, and a psychologist to deal with his wildness on the mound. Major reconstructive elbow surgery in 1999 appeared to be the final knockout blow.
But Cincinnati gave Wohlers another shot, and he returned shortly after the break with something to prove. While his strikeout frequency was down, he had his best control in 3 years and was tough to hit. It appears Cinci's risk may pay off as Wohlers showed his appreciation for their support by signing at a discounted salary of $500,000 for 2001 (mutual option worth $4 million for 2002).
Dennys Reyes, lefty specialist, age 23
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 3.88 70 0 5 3 1 72 68 6 39 74 .252 .737
Prorated Cin 3.88 44 0 3 2 1 46 43 4 25 47 .252 .737
Actual Cin 4.53 62 0 2 1 0 44 43 5 29 36 .262 .773
If Reyes has hopes of becoming a starter in the big leagues, he must learn how to get righties out. Right-handed batters smacked him around at a .330 clip while he shut down lefties (.178 AVG), suggesting Reyes may be most valuable in the short term as a lefty specialist. He still may get a chance to start because he's young and right-handers have only hit .268 against him in his career, but Cincinnati's 2001 rotation slots appear to be filled, and it seems more likely that Reyes will serve as the top lefty out of the bullpen again this season.
Scott Williamson, setup man / starter, age 24
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 3.01 70 0 6 6 3 102 79 10 44 111 .215 .655
Prorated Cin 3.01 83 0 7 7 4 120 93 12 52 131 .215 .655
Actual Cin 3.29 48 10 5 8 6 112 92 7 75 136 .224 .694
1999's Rookie of the Year showed versatility and a lack of control in 2000. Used exclusively as a starter in the minors, Williamson's first 100 appearances in the majors were in relief until he made his first big-league start in July. He went on to make 10 solid starts, displaying much better control than in his relief appearances (17 fewer walks in about the same number of innings). The extra baserunners didn't hurt him too much because he shut down batters with men in scoring position (.163 AVG), resulting in an ERA about a half run lower than his stats suggest.
Although Williamson has been a key part of the Reds bullpen, and may be better in relief than as a starter, it seems likely that he will remain in the Reds rotation for 2001. They have three other righty relievers (Sullivan, Graves, Wohlers) but don't have as much depth among the starting corps. Williamson gives them a lot of flexibility, and he could wind up being traded (he's been mentioned in the rumor mill) or moved back to a setup role if some of Cincinnati's young starters blossom quickly.
Scott Sullivan, setup man, age 29
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 3.35 53 0 6 2 0 75 66 8 28 59 .236 .702
Prorated Cin 3.35 73 0 8 3 0 104 91 11 39 81 .236 .702
Actual Cin 3.47 79 0 3 6 3 106 87 14 38 96 .226 .694
In an era of pampered pitchers, Sullivan has been a horse, averaging over 100 innings of relief over the last four seasons. If I had written this review a year ago, I would have stated that the heavy work load may catch up to him, and I would have been wrong. Sullivan was once again the model of consistency, holding batters to a .229 average over the last five years. The only surprise I could dig up was that righties fared better (albeit poorly) against the right-handed sidearmer. I still maintain that the work load will eventually catch up to Sullivan, but I won't be surprised to see more of the same in 2001.
Danny Graves, closer, age 26
ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS
Projection Cin 3.53 70 0 4 5 30 74 71 7 31 44 .255 .724
Prorated Cin 3.53 86 0 5 6 37 91 87 9 38 54 .255 .724
Actual Cin 2.56 66 0 10 5 30 91 81 8 42 53 .243 .690
Graves anchored the deep Cincinnati bullpen for the second straight year with success, earning 30 saves for the first time in his career. He followed up a strong second half of 1999 with a better first half of 2000 (9-1, 14 saves, 1.99 ERA), earning a spot on the All-Star team. But he was merely average after the break, which may be cause for concern heading into 2001. Nonetheless, the end result was Graves' third straight quality season in which he handled a larger work load than your typical closer.
Outlook
Bowden hands the team over to new manager Bob Boone in 2001. Many in the baseball community shook their heads at this move because of Boone's reputation for over-managing and questionable handling of pitching staffs in Kansas City (1995-97). He used many "small ball" tactics (bunting, hit-and-run, stealing, etc.) to manufacture runs and tried a four-man rotation that failed miserably. It will be interesting to see how Boone handles an offense that is built on power and a developing pitching rotation with little experience.
Since the All-Star break, the Reds have been on a mission to cut even more off the 8th lowest payroll in baseball. Bowden followed up the Neagle and Bichette deals with off-season trades of Taubensee and several arbitration-eligible players (Stynes, Villone, and Parris). In return, Cincinnati stockpiled young pitchers, including Ed Yarnall, Chris Reitsma, Jim Brower, Jeff Taglienti, Clayton Andrews, Leo Estrella, and Seth Etherton. While these players will have a chance to make an immediate contribution, they will pay bigger dividends down the road.
After the dust has settled, the Reds are left with the NL's deepest bullpen (if Williamson doesn't start) and a bunch of inexperienced guys fighting to fill out a starting rotation led by Pete Harnisch. Offensively, they are only weaker at catcher but still have one too many outfielders (which may open up trade possibilities).
If they can find a few starters out of their long list of potentials, the Reds will be in the thick of the NL Central race, but their long-term outlook is more promising, heading towards the opening of Cincinnati's new park in 2003.
Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved.
Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights reserved.
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