Among the many questions facing the Mets this spring, one has expanded
into a full-blown priority -- and no, it's not whether Gary Sheffield was
worth the risk or if Robin Ventura's shoulder is finally healthy. GM Steve
Phillips has iron opinions on both matters (no on Sheffield, yes on Ventura).
|  | | Timo Perez gave the Mets a spark in the postseason last year. The big question now is whether he can do it for 162 games. |
It's the leadoff spot that leaves the Mets a little wobbly. Actually,
it's Timo Perez, the right fielder who, depending on which half of last
October you recall, was either the franchise savior, or else was the nervous
rookie devoured by Yankee pitching like a bird sucked into the turbines of a
727.
Think of the dichotomy: the 23-year-old Perez surprised everyone in the Division Series against the Giants, replacing the injured Derek Bell
so smoothly after Game 1, one Mets official said, "That was our turning
point, the day we started writing Timo's name in the lineup."
Perez ended up hitting .300 with 10 runs scored in nine playoff games
against the Giants and Cardinals, and, at times, was as reckless and
dangerous a leadoff hitter the Mets have had since the early Lenny Dykstra
years.
But then came the crash -- a mere .125 average (2-for-16) against the
Yankees with just one run and no stolen bases, which may or may not have been
a fulfillment of a prophecy that some baseball people share about Perez.
Which is to say, he's got holes, plenty of them, and all it took was a little
while for opposing pitchers to find them.
|
Setting the table
|
|
How important is a good leadoff hitter? All eight playoff teams last year were at least respectable in the leadoff spot. Meanwhile, Arizona and Los Angeles had their playoff hopes stopped in part because of poor performances from their leadoff hitters.
|
|
Team |
OBP |
SLG |
|
MLB average |
.349 |
.404 |
|
Braves |
.396
|
.396
|
|
Yankees
|
.381
|
.411
|
|
Cardinals
|
.377
|
.423
|
|
White Sox
|
.353
|
.438
|
|
Mariners |
.348 |
.333
|
|
Mets
|
.341
|
.415
|
|
Giants
|
.341
|
.384
|
|
Athletics |
.340 |
.412 |
|
Best |
OBP |
SLG
|
|
Angels
|
.404
|
.532 |
|
Marlins |
.402 |
.396 |
|
Astros |
.389 |
.407
|
|
Royals |
.372 |
.481 |
|
Blue Jays |
.363 |
.527 |
|
Worst |
OBP |
SLG |
|
Expos |
.306 |
.337 |
|
Dodgers |
.308 |
.341 |
|
Devil Rays |
.309 |
.396 |
|
D-Backs |
.311 |
.394 |
|
Twins |
.315 |
.423 |
True or not, Perez's emergence -- and the Mets' conquest of both San
Francisco and St. Louis -- only cements an age-old axiom, that nothing matches
the spark of a productive leadoff hitter.
"There's no doubt in my mind that Timo is a major-league player. He
proved that to us last year. We were a better team when he was getting on
base," Phillips said the other day. "There are a lot of things he can do to
get our offense going -- he can bunt, he can get on base, he can hit the ball
in the gaps, he can even hit it over the wall. I'm not worried about our leadoff
spot."
That's bold talk, but Phillips' belief in the No. 1 spot is bolstered by
Benny Agbayani's ability to bat first, as well. He might have to again, too,
if the Mets ever acquire a power-hitting right fielder.
That was one -- although certainly not the primary -- concern in the
now-dead Sheffield trade talks. With Perez out of the lineup, the Mets
would've been missing a bona fide base stealer. As capable as Agbayani was in
generating offense (he posted a .365 on-base percentage in the leadoff spot,
and an even more impressive .495 slugging percentage), neither he nor Perez
was much of a threat to steal.
Despite his natural quickness, Perez stole only one base in 24 regular-season games last year. Agbayani stole just five, which is part of the reason
the Mets were next-to-last in the NL in stolen bases in 2000, with a mere 66.
Still, Phillips insists the role of the leadoff hitter has changed, and that
stolen bases are less important now than in the past.
"Today, a team averages maybe one or 1.2 stolen bases per game," he said.
"There are other ways to make up for that. Stolen bases are not a concern of
mine. We can win without having to steal in bunches."
The Yankees have learned that, as well. When they acquired Chuck
Knoblauch from the Twins in 1998, they assumed they were getting a Gold
Glove, basestealing second baseman. The world already knows the sad story of
Knoblauch's decline in the field, but his offense -- particularly his ability
to steal a base -- has suffered as well.
|
“ |
Today, a team averages maybe one or 1.2 stolen bases per game. There are other ways to make up for that. Stolen bases are not a concern of
mine. We can win without having to steal in bunches. ” |
|
|
— Steve Phillips, Mets GM |
Knoblauch stole 62 bases in 1997 with Minnesota. In three years with the
Yankees, he's swiped a total of 74, and his on-base percentage slipped from
.393 in 1999 to .366.
Yet, the Yankees have won three straight world championships, even with a
diminished Knoblauch. That's one reason why Joe Torre insists Knoblauch is
worth experimenting with in left field. As the manager put it, "When Chuck is
right, he makes it very difficult for a pitcher to get comfortable."
What Torre means is that Knoblauch has a history of taking pitches,
lengthening at-bats, not only making the opposing hurler work harder and
fatten his pitch count, but giving No. 2 hitter Derek Jeter a good idea of
what to expect.
But, given Knoblauch's decline -- and the fact that Rickey Henderson
surrendered his throne two years ago, if not earlier -- who's the game's best
leadoff hitter?
It's hard to argue against Oakland's Johnny Damon, who, in the opinion of
GM Billy Beane, "gave us the last piece of the puzzle" to topple the Yankee
dynasty.
Damon led the AL with 46 stolen bases last year -- and was caught only
nine times -- while batting .327 with a .495 slugging percentage. Thing is,
Damon isn't just talented, he's gutty.
He batted .342 with runners in scoring position last year, and perhaps
even more importantly, was successful in 90 percent (18-of-20) of his stolen-base attempts after the seventh inning.
No wonder Yankee GM Brian Cashman says, "The A's are definitely one of
the teams we're watching this year."
Across town, the NL champion Mets have a concern in their own division,
as Florida's Luis Castillo was practically unstoppable last year.
Not only did he lead the majors with 62 stolen bases, but his .418
on-base percentage was greater than any of the NL's other top five basestealers,
including L.A.'s Tom Goodwin (.346), Chicago's Eric Young (.367), Arizona's
Tony Womack (.307) and Atlanta's Rafael Furcal (.394).
Of course, Castillo's prowess is all relative, since Florida was
second-to-last in the NL in runs scored. Furcal hit .295, 34 points lower
than Castillo, and he stole 22 fewer bases. But the Braves won their ninth
straight division title, which, as the Mets will ruefully admit, is what
really worries them in 2001.
Bob Klapisch of The Record (Bergen County, New Jersey) covers baseball for ESPN.com.
| |
|
