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Thursday, March 29 Baseball Prospectus predicts the leaderboards By Joe Sheehan Special to ESPN.com | |||||||||||
"Baseball Prospectus 2001" contains player projections for more than 800 position players. These are generated by Clay Davenport's Wilton program, the projection arm of his Translations system.
With the new season on the horizon, we thought it would be interesting to look at the projections as a whole, and see what they project as the leaders in the major categories for each league. As always, take these with a grain of salt; Wilton may be the top projection system available, but even the best system can't take into account all the factors that go into a long season.
First off, let's see who Wilton projects to win batting titles. In the AL:
Alex Rodriguez, Texas, .360Nomar Garciaparra, Boston, 353 Manny Ramirez, Boston, .349 Derek Jeter, New York, .337 Ivan Rodriguez, Texas, .330 Well, there's one problem right off the bat. While A-Rod could easily win his second batting crown this year, especially now that he's moving to a great environment in The Ballpark in Arlington, there's pretty much no chance that Nomar Garciaparra will qualify for the batting crown this season. The rest of the top five, though, looks perfectly reasonable. Over in the NL, there's a pattern that develops: Todd Helton, Colorado, .382 Jeff Cirillo, Colorado, .374 Todd Walker, Colorado, .348 Juan Pierre, Colorado, .342 Jason Kendall, Pittsburgh, .341 The $151 Million Man is projected to make another run at .400, while three of his teammates line up behind him (as well as Larry Walker, projected to hit .355 while not qualifying for the batting title). Coors Field inflates batting averages by about 60 points, and you can see the effects of that on the projections here. But that isn't the most interesting Coorsflation projection. Here are Wilton's projected NL RBI leaders: Todd Helton, Colorado, 196 Sammy Sosa, Chicago, 160 Vladimir Guerrero, Montreal, 154 Jeff Bagwell, Houston, 147 Ken Griffey, Cincinnati, 145 Yup. Wilton is projecting that the Rockies will get their money's worth, as Todd Helton breaks Hack Wilson's 71-year-old single-season RBI record. Could it happen? Well, Todd Helton is a great hitter, benefitting from the best offensive environment in history, and he'll be 27 this season. That's a fortuitous combination. Working against this is the question of whether offensive levels will remain the same. Wilton assumes they will, but the new strike zone calls that into question. The other issue, as is always the case with RBI, is whether Helton will have enough opportunities to drive in runs. If Juan Pierre and Todd Walker combine to get on base 450 times, you have to think Helton has a chance. About the only thing Wilton doesn't think Helton will do is win the Triple Crown, although he comes close. Here's the NL home run chase: Sammy Sosa, Chicago, 52 Ken Griffey, Cincinnati, 48 Todd Helton, Colorado, 48 Vladimir Guerrero, Montreal, 44 Jeff Bagwell, Hou., 43 For the second year in a row, only Sammy Sosa would crack the 50-homer barrier. And for those of you staring slack-jawed at the screen wondering where one particular name is, I can tell you that Mark McGwire is projected to hit 37 bombs – in 330 at-bats! Obviously, if McGwire can stay in the lineup, he's likely to bury all of these guys. Here are the home run and RBI lists for the AL: Alex Rodriguez, Texas, 53 Manny Ramirez, Boston, 43 Jason Giambi, Oakland, 38 Troy Glaus, Anaheim, 38 Carlos Delgado, Toronto, 37 Alex Rodriguez, Texas, 143 Nomar Garciaparra, Boston, 141 Jason Giambi, Oakland, 141 Carlos Delgado, Toronto, 132 Frank Thomas, Chicago, 131 Well, how about that? Wilton doesn't project Todd Helton to win the Triple Crown, but it does project Alex Rodriguez to do so, blowing away the home-run race and squeaking out a win in the RBI category. Maybe Tom Hicks does know what he's doing. Like Helton, Rodriguez is a great player coming into his peak, playing in a great hitting era and now, in a good hitter's park. And as with Helton, the key factor will be the Rangers' ability to put runners on in front of Rodriguez. These raw totals are interesting, but let's see who Wilton projects to have the best seasons. The rate stat we use is Equivalent Average (EqA), which measures a player's offensive performance and accounts for the context (league and ballpark effects). The top 10 in EqA are projected as: American League Manny Ramirez, Boston, .363 Alex Rodriguez, Texas, .357 Jason Giambi, Oakland, .336 Carlos Delgado, Toronto, .332 Nomar Garciaparra, Boston, 331 Bernie Williams, New York, .328 Derek Jeter, New York, .312 Frank Thomas, Chicago, .311 Ben Grieve, Tampa Bay, .310 Edgar Martinez, Seattle, .307 Mike Sweeney, Kansas City, .307 National League Barry Bonds, San Francisco, .342 Todd Helton, Colorado, .342 Vladimir Guerrero, Montreal, .337 Bobby Abreu, Philadelphia, .334 Chipper Jones, Atlanta, .332 Jeff Bagwell, Houston, .330 Sammy Sosa, Chicago, .329 Gary Sheffield, Los Angeles., .328 Brian Giles, Pittsburgh, .328 Edgardo Alfonzo, New York., .325 There are some surprises here. Bobby Abreu, one of the best hitters in the game that no one hears about, is projected to leap into the elite. Ben Grieve, who appeared to have leveled off after a strong rookie season, looks like he's ready to take a big step forward (Wilton projects 35 home runs this season). For both these players, the key factor will be improving their performance against left-handed pitchers. Abreu has hit for some average and had a good walk rate against lefties, but for no real power in three seasons. Grieve had a terrible season against left-handers in 1999, but improved considerably in 2000; building on that will be a key to his success. Two Cardinals teammates are projected to have EqAs that would place them in the top 10, but to not have enough playing time to qualify for the list. Mark McGwire is actually projected to lead the league with a .352 EqA, while Jim Edmonds is projected at .325, but falling just shy of 502 plate appearances. (Thanks to BP's Jeff Bower for his help in assembling this article.) The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus (tm) will be writing twice a week for ESPN.com during the baseball season. You can check out more of their work at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. |
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