Most of the emphasis on the new strike zone's impact has focused on the game as a whole. As we covered at the Baseball Prospectus and Rob Neyer did in his Wednesday column, strikeouts are up, walks are down, and the combination has had a big impact on run scoring, which is down significanly in both leagues.
At the risk of becoming a one-trick pony, I want to take one more column to discuss the new strike zone. Don't worry; next week, I'll do a column on Great In-Season Managerial Changes or something equally relevant to this season.
Baseball revolves around the strike zone. Hitters who possess the skill of plate discipline can not only draw the walks that lead to a good on-base percentage, but also get into good hitters' counts and drive up their batting and slugging averages, putting runs on the board. Conversely, pitchers who throw strikes put fewer runners on base and have the advantage on more hitters.
So it stands to reason that in a season in which the strike zone has been modified, teams that adjust more quickly will have success. Last week, we looked at individual pitchers who are thriving in the new environment, guys like Curt Schilling and Brad Radke who are succeeding with obscene strikeout-to-walk ratios. What about teams, though? Are some clubs taking advantage of the new conditions to score more runs, even as league-wide offense is down?
The answer is a qualified "yes." While there is no absolute relationship, there definitely is a trend that indicates teams which are adjusting the best to the new environment are performing the best at the plate.
And as Rob Neyer wrote about, the team that stands out is the San Diego Padres. The Padres finished ninth in the NL last year in Equivalent Average (EqA) with a .257 mark. (EqA, developed by Clay Davenport, measures offensive performance in the context of league, park, and era. For more on the metric and how it is devised, click here. This year, they lead the senior circuit with a .277 EqA. The key to the improvement is that they are one of just four teams whose plate discipline, as measured by strikeout-to-walk ratio, has improved over last season:
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Team
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2000 K/BB
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2001 K/BB
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Change
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Detroit
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1.82
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1.64
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+9.7%
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San Diego
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2.13
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1.98
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+7.2%
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Houston
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1.83
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1.71
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+6.9%
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Montreal
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2.48
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2.38
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+3.8%
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In a league in which K/BB ratio has declined by 15 percent, the Padres have improved their rate by 7.2 percent. That's meant more walks (137 unintentional, tops in the majors) as well as higher batting and slugging averages in a league in which those figures are dropping. That's how a team jumps from the middle of the pack to an offensive leader.
As I mentioned, though, the "yes" is qualified. For while the Tigers have the fifth-best EqA in the AL and the Astros are right behind the Padres for top dog in the NL, the last team above, the Expos, have actually lost 14 points off their EqA, the third-worst decline in the NL. The Expos, of course, might just be an outlier, as their plate discipline hasn't really improved much, and the team still has a big problem in that area.
How about the flip side? Are the teams who aren't adjusting well to the new zone paying a big price?
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Team
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2000 K/BB
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2001 K/BB
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Change
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Boston
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1.78
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2.63
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-47.9%
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Tampa Bay
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1.91
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2.80
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-46.4%
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Chicago (AL)
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1.71
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2.50
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-46.2%
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Kansas City
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1.74
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2.54
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-46.1%
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Pittsburgh
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1.97
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2.78
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-40.7%
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Some teams are simply getting hammered, and yes, it is showing up on the scoreboard. The Devil Rays, Royals, and Pirates all have sub-.240 EqAs, a horrible showing. All three have declined from last year's offensive performance, with the D-Rays off about 2 percent, the Royals 5.5 percent and the Pirates 7 percent. Remember, that's all relative to leagues that are already down 10-15 percent.
If you're looking for a reason why the White Sox have been a disappointment, look no further: last season's AL Central Division-winner, the one that finished fourth in the league in EqA, had the fifth-best plate discipline in the AL. This year's team has slipped to 11th, with their EqA falling to .248, 10th in the league.
The outlier here is the Red Sox, who have improved their offensive performance by more than any other AL team (.249 to .270, or 8.4 percent) despite the second-worst K/BB ratio in the league. Shea Hillenbrand is a fun story, but maybe the pre-game hitting lessons with him are taking the whole thing a bit too far. The Sox are 12th in the AL in walks and 11th in strikeouts (where more is worse), so I'm not enthusiastic about their ability to keep the runs coming.
If you look at more teams, clearer patterns emerge. Of the 16 teams who are performing better offensively than they did last season, 12 have managed to either improve their K/BB ratio or see it decline by less than their league average (which is 15 percent in the NL, and a bit more than 21 percent in the AL). Conversely, of the other 14 teams (the ones doing worse at the plate this year), just four have improved their K/BB ratio relative to their league.
By the way, if you want evidence of the importance of control of the strike zone, how about this? The top five hitting teams in baseball (the Indians, Rangers, Mariners, Padres and Astros) all have a K/BB ratio in the top five of their league. Eight of the top 10 teams and 11 of the top 15 have ratios above their league's average. Of the teams with the worst offenses in baseball, only the Orioles -- who have a .slugging percentage straight out of the 1960s -- and the Braves have K/BB ratios above league-average.
Simply put, plate discipline matters and it matters more this year than ever before. Teams that get that, and make the necessary adjustments, will have an advantage.
The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus (tm) will be writing twice a week for ESPN.com during the baseball season. You can check out more of their work at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Joe Sheehan can be reached at jsheehan@baseballprospectus.com
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