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Saturday, June 16 Updated: June 18, 11:40 AM ET Better or worse, players defying numbers By Greg Spira Special to ESPN.com | |||||||||||
Past performance is almost always the best predictor of future performance in baseball, and all prediction systems have this face at their core. The Wilton projections, developed by Clay Davenport and published in Baseball Prospectus each year, are just one example of using a player's track record to estimate his production for the upcoming season.
Of course, one of the things that makes the game fun is that the projections we make aren't 100-percent accurate (that would be more profitable, but much less fun). Every year we see players come out of nowhere, while at the same time watching established veterans fall off the proverbial cliff.
Identifying surprising players is the easy part. Figuring out what is responsible for their performance is the catch. In many cases, the answer is, "absolutely nothing." Large variations in performance are often due to nothing more than random variation, especially at this point in the season. That doesn't mean the "why" isn't worth looking for, as long as we're careful. If we can find a reasonable explanation for the differences other than random variation -- a stylistic change, an injury, etc. -- that makes it more likely that the change in performance level is real, and that it will continue into the future.
With all that in mind, here are the 20 players causing us all to scratch our heads in wonder:
The OverachieversRich Aurilia Actual EqA: .334, Projected EqA: .258 There's no reason to believe that Rich Aurilia leading the league in batting average is anything but completely random, and that batting average is the biggest difference in his performance. Aurilia has improved to the point of being a worthy All-Star, probably the best shortstop in the NL, but he's not going to hit .360 all season. Bret Boone Actual EqA: .335, Projected EqA: .244 There's no real reason for the incredible season Boone is having. It's almost certainly a fluke, but flukes have occasionally been known to last all season (see, Tim Wallach, 1994). The Mariners are certainly hoping that's the case. It's worth noting that a lot of the attention Boone is getting is because of his RBI total. Boone leads the major leagues in at-bats with runners in scoring position with 90, and has spent most of the season batting behind John Olerud (.438 OBP) and Edgar Martinez (.453 OBP). Boone is having a great season, but the big number in his RBI column has as much to do with those two guys as with Boone's performance. Mike Cameron Actual EqA: .310, Projected EqA: .259 Cameron is hitting the ball in the air more than he has in the past, so the extra power this year is probably for real. He's also showing the kind of growth-increasing his walk rate, bettering his stolen-base percentage-that reflect a player learning his craft. He's also on the short list with Torii Hunter as the best defensive center fielders in the league. Ben Davis Actual EqA: .297, Projected EqA: .249 Yes, Davis has done more than lay down a controversial bunt base hit this year. He's been swinging at the first pitch less frequently this year, as well as taking more walks, boosting his OBP to .384. Coming into this season, his career OBP was .303. His early-season power spike looks like a fluke, but his newfound plate discipline will continue to make him an asset. Luis Gonzalez Actual EqA: .365, Projected EqA: .286 Gonzalez isn't going to hit 70 homers, but the growth he's experienced as a hitter in his thirties is entirely real. The power spike is the result of his conditioning and increased uppercut, as well as a more open stance this season. Like Paul O'Neill before him, a middling corner outfielder who blossomed after a midcareer trade. Cristian Guzman Actual EqA: .290, Projected EqA: .221 Guzman is driving the ball more instead of hitting grounder after grounder, and that increased power is what's behind his better numbers. Guzman is still not walking enough (just 14 times so far this year) to make him a legitimate top-of-the-order hitter. It's likely he'll settle somewhere between his projected rate and his current production; that, combined with his good glove, will make him a contributor. Edgar Martinez Actual EqA: .366, Projected ERA: .307 The projection system assumes that Edgar Martinez is a normal baseball player and thus will decline like most 38 year old DHs do. It appears, however, that Martinez is a hitting cyborg sent from the second moon of Krypton, immune to age, sliders, and left-handed pitching. He's on pace for perhaps the best season of his career, which might be remarkable if Martinez wasn't always remarkable. Frank Menechino Actual EqA: .321, Projected EqA: .259 Menechino has been a solid player at Triple-A for quite some time, perfectly capable of being a major-league utility infielder. Still, there's no reason to think that his season hasn't been more or less a fluke. The Athletics should not trade their real long-term solution at second base, Jose Ortiz. Doug Mientkiewicz Actual EqA: .309, Projected EqA: .245 Mientkiewicz is falling back to earth after April's Jason Giambi impersonation. His early power burst was clearly a fluke. Nevertheless, he's clearly not the horrendous hitter that showed up in the majors in 1999. He's a good bet to maintain a solid average and on-base percentage, though that's really not enough for a first baseman anymore. Albert Pujols Actual EqA: .350, Projected EqA: .274 Young players are more likely to take big steps forward than older ones, and that is clearly what we're seeing from Pujols. You would expect him to decline from his tremendous start, but his performance so far in June (1189 OPS) looks just like the work he did in April (1170 OPS). The Underachievers Brad Ausmus Actual EqA: .186, Projected EqA: .255 Nothing's working: Ausmus has lost average, walks, and power this year, leaving only his renowned leadership skills to power the Astros lineup. There's something definitely wrong here; one possible explanation is that he's hitting a lot more fly balls than usual, and doesn't have the kind of power necessary to make that work. Tony Batista Actual EqA: .230, Projected EqA .260 The dip here is almost all batting average, which normally makes a shortfall like this meaningless. But Batista's strikeout-to-walk ratio has been even worse than usual (about 6 to 1, down from a career mark of about 3 to 1), and that gives the Blue Jays a real reason to be concerned. His notoriously bad plate discipline may be finally catching up to him. Milton Bradley Actual EqA: .224, Projected EqA: .259 Bradley has not been able to hit as well in the majors as his minor-league numbers suggest. Along with Peter Bergeron and Michael Barrett, Bradley's poor performance stands as part of the case against Felipe Alou's ability to develop young players. The good news for Bradley is that Bergeron was even worse, which allowed Bradley to keep his job. Johnny Damon Actual EqA: .227, Projected EqA: .299 Damon is a traditionally slow starter, but this is beyond ridiculous. There is no evidence or analysis that seems to account for the outfielder's dreadful start, so it's tempting to say that it's all a fluke, but this would be one heck of a "random variation." It's not just his batting average: his isolated power is a career low and he's on pace for the lowest full-season total of extra-base hits in his career. Steve Finley Actual EqA: .226, Projected EqA: .266 Finley's game seems to be completely off. His average and power and way down, and he's taken on a completely different batting style. He's hitting a lot more ground balls than he has in the last few years, while he's also been taking more pitches -- often a bad sign in an older player. He's either injured or he got old in a hurry in the offseason. Jason Kendall Actual EqA: .236, Projected EqA: .313 Kendall has been playing through a thumb injury that has contributed to some brutal stretches (1-for-19 and 0-for-18) and dragged his numbers down. Making him a part-time left fielder hasn't had any impact on his performance thus far, although he seems very happy with the decision. Expect him to get back to his established level in the second half. Derrek Lee Actual EqA: .224, Projected EqA: .264 Richie Sexson Actual EqA: .241, Projected EqA: .279 A joint entry, because their size, hitting style, and 2001 seasons are all strikingly similar. Both are tall, right-handed power hitters with big strike zones. Both seem to have lost control over that strike zone completely this season, after 2000 campaigns in which they both took big steps forward: Derek Lee Year AVG OBP SLG BB K K/BB AB/K Pre-2000 .227 .305 .384 71 214 3.01 3.39 2000 .281 .368 .507 57 123 123 2.16 3.88 2001 .218 .283 .374 14 55 3.93 3.84Richie Sexson Year AVG OBP SLG BB K K/BB AB/K Pre-2000 .270 .314 .530 40 161 4.03 4.12 2000 .272 .349 .499 57 159 2.79 3.38 2001 .239 .298 .426 14 76 5.43 3.03There's an important lesson here: improvement does not always beget improvement. It was easy to look at the progress Lee and Sexson made in 2000 and decide that they had turned the corner. It's a mistake to assume that a young player's progress will be constant, especially a young player with holes in his game. Edgar Renteria Actual EqA: .216, Projected EqA: .268 A lot of folks expected Renteria to miss his projection in the other direction. Instead, he has struggled mightily. It's probably little besides random variation, but this kind of start certainly doesn't indicate that Renteria will be the star some expect him to be. He's still young, but he hasn't shown much steady growth during his career. Scott Rolen Actual EqA: .268, Projected EqA: .301 The new surface in Veterans Stadium was supposed to keep Rolen's back healthy, but it hasn't kept his bat healthy. He's lost not only average but also a substantial amount of power, and there's no clear explanation for his difficulties. The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus (tm) will be writing twice a week for ESPN.com during the baseball season. You can check out more of their work at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Greg Spira can be reached at gspira@baseballprospectus.com. |
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