This is a great year for three-horse races. In the NL alone, we have a whopping four, making this one of the most interesting ...
Uh, Joe?
Yes?
There are only three divisions in the NL.
Correct. The fourth race -- which may end up as the best of them all -- involves three of the fiercest competitors in the game, and is almost as tight as the NL West.
|
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
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CG
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ShO
|
H
|
BB
|
SO
|
HR
|
|
Johnson
|
15-5
|
2.40
|
176.0
|
2
|
1
|
122
|
52
|
267
|
15
|
|
Maddux
|
15-6
|
2.68
|
171.1
|
3
|
3
|
161
|
18
|
135
|
10
|
|
Schilling
|
16-5
|
3.01
|
182.2
|
6
|
1
|
169
|
28
|
205
|
30
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Right now, Randy Johnson appears to be the leader in the race for the NL Cy Young Award, with the lowest ERA of the group, the most strikeouts, and a second-place standing in innings pitched, trailing Schilling by an insignificant amount. Greg Maddux appears to have an edge on Curt Schilling, but the gap between them is overstated by ERA, which both overemphasizes a couple of disastrous starts Schilling has had and fails to credit the Diamondbacks right-hander for pitching in a better hitters' park.
How can we correct for this? One tool I like to use is Support-Neutral Value Added, developed by Michael Wolverton as a way of comparing starting pitchers by isolating their performance from their parks, their offensive support and the bullpen behind them. (For a complete description of Michael's system, click here.)
According to SN stats, the three pitchers line up like this:
|
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SNPct.
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SNVA
|
SNWAR
|
|
Johnson
|
.753
|
4.2
|
5.9
|
|
Schilling
|
.708
|
3.6
|
5.3
|
|
Maddux
|
.662
|
2.7
|
4.2
|
SNPct.: Support-Neutral Winning Percentage
SNVA: Wins added above an average starter
SNWAR: Wins added above a replacement-level starter
The nominal three-horse race looks more like a two-horse race here, as a number of factors break against Maddux:
He's thrown fewer innings than the other two.
The other two pitchers have allowed fewer unearned runs than Maddux (SN stats use runs, not earned runs).
Turner Field is a better pitching environment than Bank One Ballpark, and a cursory glance shows that Maddux has generally pitched in more pitcher-friendly environments on the road. Just to pick one example, both Schilling and Johnson have made two starts at Coors Field and one at Enron Field. Maddux has made none in either park.
In fact -- and understand that I say this as a big fan of his -- Maddux may not even be the third-best pitcher in the NL this year:
|
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
CG
|
ShO
|
H
|
BB
|
SO
|
HR
|
SNPct.
|
SNVA
|
SNWAR
|
|
Kile
|
12-7
|
2.87
|
166.1
|
2
|
1
|
166
|
41
|
126
|
17
|
.692
|
3.1
|
4.6
|
Maddux has a better won-lost record than Darryl Kile, but remember that a pitcher's won-lost record is subject to factors that are beyond his control. Kile's performance, isolated from the support he's received from his teammates, has been about half a win better than Maddux's so far. That's significant. Kile hasn't been considered a serious candidate for the award this season, so it's hard to argue that Maddux is.
That leaves the teammates, Johnson and Schilling, and between them, there is one clear choice. Any way you choose to carve up their performances, Johnson comes out ahead: he has better raw numbers, better Support-Neutral stats, and has a couple of markers like the 20-strikeout game and the chase of Nolan Ryan's single-season strikeout record in his favor. Schilling, Maddux, and perhaps even Kile are all viable candidates if Johnson should falter, but right now, the Big Unit is the leader.
The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus (tm) will be writing twice a week for ESPN.com during the baseball season. You can check out more of their work at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Joe Sheehan can be reached at jsheehan@baseballprospectus.com
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