Every season has its surprise performances. We love to see young players like Albert Pujols burst on to the scene and play like established superstars. Everyone gets a serious kick out of seeing an aging favorite not only hang on for one more year, but also flash one final great season in the sun before a graceful retirement.

Joe Sheehan examined some of these breakout seasons in his article last week. Today, we examine some of the players who are having years that can be best described as breakdown seasons.

Darin Erstad, Angels
One problem with having a great season is that people come to expect it every year. Erstad's 2000 was amazing. A .355 batting average with 240 hits, 70 for extra bases. So going into this season, people reasonably expected something of a dropoff, right? Nobody not named Gwynn or Boggs can do that on a regular basis.

Well, Erstad has certainly dropped off. His 2000 season was almost entirely supported by an Ichiro-esque 170 singles. His large number of extra-base hits wasn't out of line with his previous performance, and his big raw numbers outside of just hitting singles had more to do with his 676 at-bats than with a marked change in his level of performance. This year, his batting average has dropped to a pedestrian .262, and his extra-base hit power fell to the lower edge of his established performance level. The result is a .262/.334/.365 season with some speed and some pretty good defense. That's nice to have in an extra outfielder, but not in someone who's supposed to be an anchor for the team.

Tim Salmon, Angels
Salmon's been fighting nagging injuries on and off for the past four years, and they appear to have really taken a toll on his bat speed. From 1993 to 1998, Salmon posted an OBP of at least .382 and a SLG of at least .501 in every season. After a 1999 campaign that saw him miss over 60 games and drop off in production, he rebounded well in 2000, hitting .290/.404/.540 in 158 games.

But like his teammate Erstad, Salmon's 2001 has been extremely disappointing. His batting average has dropped to a career low .235 (ignoring his 23-game cup of coffee in 1992), and his power has declined, leaving only his plate discipline to support a weak .235/.377/.407 campaign. For a corner outfielder in a reasonable hitters' park, that's not a performance that's going to advance a team towards a pennant, particularly when that team is in the same division with baseball's two best squads.

Brady Anderson, Orioles
What's the old saying about payback? Anderson's nightmare of a season will be coming to an end shortly, mercifully concealed by the retirement of his more famous teammate. In 1996, Anderson demonstrated a historic power spike, banging 50 home runs after never having hit more than 21 in any previous season. This year, it appears he's been suffering from some sort of karmic balancing act, as he's hitting a puzzling .194/.307/.295. Anderson might be the player with the biggest discrepancy between his best and worst seasons in history. He's certainly not the only Oriole looking forward to the season ending.

Edgardo Alfonzo, Mets
This might be the scariest of the 2001 dropoffs. Alfonzo, who was a legitimate MVP candidate last year after hitting .324/.425/.542, has suffered a series of back problems throughout the year, completely robbing him of his bat speed. His ability to hit for average has all but gone, and his power and plate discipline have slid from MVP-caliber to replacement level. Mets fans can hope that Alfonzo's .249/.325/.410 numbers, and his back injuries, are simply a temporary problem, and don't take Alfonzo down the same path as another New York infielder, one named "Mattingly."

Jason Kendall, Pirates
Kendall has had some very nasty injuries over the years, but that didn't stop Pittsburgh from signing him to a long-term deal worth $60 million over the next six seasons. He's been fighting a lingering thumb injury for much of 2001, and the result has been ugly -- a .273 average to go along with a notable drop in walks, power, and speed. Pirate fans had better hope that Cam Bonifay didn't buy into a severely declining market before he left town. Kendall should rebound in coming years, but will he rebound enough to be worth $10 million a year as an outfielder?

Eric Karros, Dodgers
Exhibit A in support of Jim Tracy for Manager of the Year. Not only has he lost Andy Ashby, Darren Dreifort, and now Kevin Brown from the rotation, Tracy has the Dodgers in contention on September 24 with a first baseman who's hit .239/.305/.402 for the season.

Karros has an uncanny ability to post a reasonable season just in time to keep his job and earn a lucrative contract. His only two really good years, 1995 and 1999, are surrounded by remarkably consistent, mediocre performances, even considering the hitters' dungeon in which he plays. Karros's OPS, by year:

1992: 730
1993: 696
1994: 736
1995: 904
1996: 795
1997: 788
1998: 830
1999: 912
2000: 780
2001: 707

That'll warm the hearts of a lot of Giants fans.

Marquis Grissom, Dodgers
Exhibit B in support of Mr. Tracy's Manager of the Year candidacy.

In a move that must cause abdominal cramps to Dodger fans in the Southland, Grissom was acquired from the Brewers for Devon White at the beginning of the season. Grissom's performance isn't really that surprising -- he hasn't had an OBP better than .320 since 1996, but his mindbendingly bad .228/.258/.423 performance this season reminds one of Ozzie Guillen if he swung really hard each time at bat. Grissom's basestealing ability, once the cornerstone of his game, is now nothing but a memory. He's swiped seven bases this year, and been caught four times. Not good.

Andruw Jones, Braves
Is it fair to consider Jones' season bad when one considers the performances of Grissom and Doug Glanville? Yes. Sure, he's outplayed Grissom and Glanville, but let's take a look at his performance year by year:

Season	G	BA	OBP	SLG
1997	153	.231	.329	.416
1998	159	.271	.329	.515
1999	162	.275	.365	.483
2000	161	.303	.366	.541
2001	147	.251	.313	.461

Jones's dropoff wouldn't be so disappointing if it weren't indicative of a lack of development. Each year before this, Jones has shown improvement in some facet of his game: either plate discipline, batting average, or power. One would hope to see some consolidation of these skills, and perhaps some growth in one or two of those skills. Instead, you have a lot of Braves fans cursing at the screen when Jones chases yet another breaking ball low and away.

Then again, he is only 24 years old.

Johnny Damon, Ben Grieve and Roberto Hernandez
A's/Devil Rays/Royals
I don't think this is what anyone thought would happen when the A's, Rays and Royals got together to do this three-way deal in January. Check out the 2000 and 2001 numbers for this trio:

Player	2000	2001
Damon	720 PA, 877 OPS	652 PA, 697 OPS
Grieve	667 PA, 846 OPS	565 PA, 749 OPS
Hernandez	73.1 IP, 3.19 ERA	59.2 IP, 4.68 ERA

Youch. Billy Beane and Allard Baird both said at the time that Cory Lidle and Angel Berroa were important components of this deal at the time they executed it. Lidle has been one of the best 25 or so starters in baseball, and Angel Berroa looks like he could be a very good middle infielder for a number of years, but I'll bet even Beane and Baird are surprised at exactly how much of the value they received would be locked up in those players. Once again, the D-Rays miss out.

Dave Burba, Indians
You can make a reasonable case that the one pitcher most responsible for the Minnesota Twins staying in the AL Central race most of the year doesn't even pitch for the Twins. Burba's velocity and movement have all but vanished for most of the season, and as a result, there's been more whiplash at Jacobs Field than at a how-to seminar on insurance fraud.

Burba has allowed 111 runs to score in 30 appearances, including 26 starts. He's allowed that many before; in 1999, when he pitched 220 innings. This year, he's done it in only 144. Having Burba return to his normal level of performance would make it a lot easier for Cleveland to go anywhere but out in the postseason. His 10-10 record is a tribute to just how well Roberto Alomar, Jim Thome, Danys Baez, and Juan Gonzalez have played.

Andy Benes, Cardinals
The most surprising thing about Benes's season is that the Cardinals are leading the NL wild-card race despite his having started 19 games. Benes, one of the elite starters in baseball for eight of his previous 12 years, has been nothing short of awful. His .500 record masks an on-field performance that could actually silence an agent. In 107.1 innings over 27 appearances (19 of them starts), Benes has allowed 122 hits, including 30 home runs, walked 61, and allowed 88 earned runs to score, for an astronomical ERA of 7.38.

Rotation, Rangers
At this point, Doug Melvin might as well give Alex Rodriguez a chance to take the mound. For the second straight year, the rotation of the Rangers has been a complete and utter disaster. Check out the ERAs of the pitchers who have started a game for Texas in 2001:

Pitcher	Starts	ERA
Doug Davis	27	4.31
Rick Helling	31	5.04
Pat Mahomes	4	5.67
Darren Oliver	26	5.91
Kenny Rogers	20	6.19
Ryan Glynn	9	7.04
Rob Bell	15	7.06
Aaron Myette	12	7.20
Mike Judd	1	8.00
Justin Duchscherer	1	9.35

Granted, The Ballpark in Arlington is a great hitters' park, but having one starter with an ERA below 5.00 is generally not conducive to winning a lot of baseball games. Doug Davis' ERA is as soft as they come, too. Beneath that gaudy (on this staff) 4.31 ERA are 198 hits and 62 walks in only 167 innings. No matter how good your shortstop and catcher are, you can't win with a rotation that makes fans long for Walt Terrell as a No. 1 starter.

The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus (tm) writes twice a week for ESPN.com during the baseball season. You can check out more of their work at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Gary Huckabay can be reached at huckbay@baseballprospectus.com.