The 2001 season is ending with two players taking dead aim on major records: Barry Bonds, one homer away from Mark McGwire's single-season record of 70 and three walks away from Babe Ruth's single-season record of 170; and Rickey Henderson, one run short of Ty Cobb's career record of 2,245 (and three hits shy of 3,000). But the regularity with which hitting records have fallen in recent years tells us that we shouldn't etch these new marks in stone just yet. Indeed, the assaults on these and other marks are likely to accelerate as the next waves of superstar hitters progress in their careers.
Accurately forecasting player stats for next season is an impossible task, so there's a fair amount of hocus pocus in discussing projected career totals. So we'll use a popular magic wand called the Favorite Toy, a statistical tool of sorts developed by Bill James.
The Toy is just that, a toy, a mechanism for giving some numbers to an inherently abstract debate over how many home runs a 25-year-old star might hit by the time he turns 40. For any specific category, it considers a player's career total to date, his recent pace in that category, and his age to come up with a probability that he'll reach a specific milestone in that category. We used the Toy to assess the chances that some of the game's biggest stars will reach milestones or set new records in the major hitting categories.
Roberto Alomar
Those who argue that Alomar ranks among the greatest second basemen in history may soon find their claims validated by some milestones as well. Alomar should close the 2001 season just shy of 2,400 hits on his career, giving him nearly even odds to reach 3,000, probably early in 2005. Alomar also has an outside shot -- four percent -- at toppling the runs record that Rickey Henderson is threatening to set this week, with a 24 percent chance that he'll top 2,000 runs before he's done. And for fans of truly obscure milestones, Alomar has a 12 percent chance to reach the top five in doubles, which would put him in fairly elite company: ahead of George Brett, and behind only Tris Speaker, Pete Rose, Stan Musial, and Ty Cobb.
Todd Helton
Helton is a very good hitter who nonetheless owes his presence on this list to his home park, the greatest hitters' environment major-league baseball has ever seen: Coors Field. His somewhat late start has all but eliminated his chance to break any of the major records (his six percent shot at Aaron's RBI total is the highest chance he gets), but he does have shots at round-numbered milestones. Helton has a 39 percent chance at 500 homers, a 14 percent chance at 3,000 hits, and a 17 percent chance at 2,000 RBI. Of course, Helton's age (28) and low totals relative to those milestones make this rather speculative, and all bets are off if he ever leaves Colorado.
Sammy Sosa
Here's where things get interesting. According to the Toy, Sosa has the best shot of any active major leaguer at breaking Hank Aaron's home run record, a record that looks unlikely to survive the careers of the guys on this list. Sosa has 445 homers heading into Tuesday's game and is averaging about 56-57 homers a year; should he hold to that pace, he'd break the record in 2007. But if the Sosa of 2001 -- with a newfound command of the strike zone that has made him one of baseball's best all-around threats at the plate -- is more than a one-year phenomenon, he could break the mark sooner. Either way, the model's 27 percent estimate of his probability of reaching 756 seems, if anything, conservative. (The model says he's a near-lock to reach 600, and a 60 percent probability to pass Willie Mays at 660.)
It's not surprising that Sosa also has a shot at Aaron's RBI mark ( seven percent, although he's more than 1,000 RBI away) as well, but would you have figured him to have a 14 percent chance at 3,000 hits? Sosa is a probable Hall of Famer as it is, but he could be an inner-circle member in about five or six more years.
Vladimir Guerrero
Vlad the Impaler toils in anonymity in le pays étranger, but one can hope that either he or his team will move to a more welcoming market if he continues accumulating hits, homers, and RBI. Guerrero's best shot, as with most of these players, is in the home runs department: a 55 percent chance at 500 homers, and even a nine percent chance to pass Aaron. (Again, take all of these figures with the appropriate grain of salt: Vlad is at just 170 homers right now, so we're a long way off from history.) Vlad also has the second-best probability of passing Aaron's RBI mark, and a 30 percent chance at the Cooperstown ticket of 3,000 hits. Of course, he projects to pass that mark around 2011, so don't wait up.
Andruw Jones
Jones hasn't broken through to offensive superstardom the way that many analysts expected him to do, especially after his strong walk rate in 2000. But Jones is just 24, with all of his prime years ahead of him, and could easily play another 16 years, giving him good probabilities in all of the major categories. Despite his relative struggles this year, he still carries a 41 percent chance of reaching 500 homers and an 18 percent chance of scoring 2,000 runs. Jones' chances right now depend very heavily on whether he settles for being very good or is willing or able to consolidate all of his gains over the past three years and become great. Check back next year.
Derek Jeter
Jeter gets the media attention as the biggest star on a four-time World Champion team in the nation's biggest media market, but as a six-year veteran at age 27, he's a viable subject in this sort of discussion. Jeter has a 34 percent chance of reaching 3,000 hits, and realistically, if he manages to play 150 games a year for the next 10 years, he's a near-lock to reach that mark. Interestingly enough, Jeter is the only player to whom the Toy gives a shot at Pete Rose's ill-gotten record of 4,256 hits, although his shot is less than one percent.
Barry Bonds
This year might just be a taste of Bonds' ability to make history. He should break Mark McGwire's home run record. He's a lock to break Babe Ruth's walk record (a far more enduring mark). He'll win his fourth MVP, becoming the first man to do so, unless the BBWAA's old guard gets all cranky again. But there's a lot more to come.
Bonds will pass 600 homers next year, and will pass Willie Mays' 660 mark in 2003. (As an aside, I'll see 600 passed with some disappointment; Mays' mark was all the more impressive for its solitude in the 600 club.) The Toy gives Bonds a 24 percent chance of passing 700 and a 3 percent chance of passing Aaron; if he hits 55 next year, that last figure rises to 12 percent. Barring a catastrophe, Bonds will finish his career in the top three in homers.
Bonds should also finish his career as one of just four men to draw 2,000 walks, unless his walk rate drops dramatically after his record-setting 2001. He has a 35 percent chance to reach 2,000, a number that reflects his lower walk rates in 1999 and 2000, and a seven percent chance of passing Rickey Henderson's new mark.
Bonds even has a 21 percent chance to reach 2,000 runs scored for his career, meaning that he could retire with 600 or 700 homers, 2,000 runs scored, 1,700 or so RBI, 500 steals, 2,000 walks, and 2,500 hits. Greatest ever? That's a subject for another column, but it's hard to deny that he's a legitimate candidate.
Alex Rodriguez
We close with the man who could find himself atop many, many categories by the time he's done. A-Rod was already a candidate to do so, and the move to a more hitter-friendly ballpark won't hurt at all.
Rodriguez is just 26 and already has impressive totals: 240 homers, 1,163 hits, 727 RBI, 759 runs scored. That's a career for most players. For some context: Rodriguez will probably vault into the top 100 in career home runs next season, and should reach the top 50 in 2003 -- at age 28.
So it's not surprising that the Toy looks very kindly on Mr. Rodriguez's chances of setting a few new records. The Toy says A-Rod has a 25 percent chance to pass Aaron's home run mark, a 23 percent chance to pass Henderson's probable runs scored mark, and a 19 percent chance to pass Aaron's RBI mark. And if you're curious, A-Rod has the best chance of any player to reach 800 home runs, so anyone who passes Aaron before A-Rod does will have to finish his career with a glance over his shoulder.
For more Toying Around with the Numbers, click here.
The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus (tm) writes twice a week for ESPN.com during the baseball season. You can check out more of their work at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Keith Law can be reached at klaw@baseballprospectus.com.
