Last summer, in my column on the Baseball Prospectus Web site, I went through the process of guessing the reserves after the All-Star starters were announced. As usual, it was a bit difficult, because you have to factor in the one-team-per-player rule and choose guys who are having good seasons while also keeping in mind that the game is for the stars.

What made it more difficult, though, was the great disparity in available talent for the rosters. In the National League, there were candidates who were fully qualified for the team but had no chance of making it. At the time, I wrote:

As has become the case every year in the NL, there are many outfielders deserving of selection. Locks include Lance Berkman, Cliff Floyd, Larry Walker, and Vladimir Guerrero. Those four and the three starters [Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Luis Gonzalez] give the NL zero center fielders (sorry, Lance), so Andruw Jones or Jim Edmonds should make the team. ... This still leaves Moises Alou on the outside looking in, but with the numbers being what they are, I expect Alou to be the player most screwed this year.

As deep as the NL is, it's that shallow here. No center fielder was elected, so Bernie Williams will make the team, and Mike Cameron deserves to as well.. After that, it's a crapshoot of decent-but-not-great players, including Shannon Stewart, Bobby Higginson, Magglio Ordonez [who looks much better in comparison now], and Raul Mondesi. ... There's a lot more gray area with the AL, in part because of the lack of clear All-Star-caliber players, and in part due to more teams with very few candidates.

Let's look at this another way. Clay Davenport's Runs Above Replacement Position is a good way to rank the best hitters in the game. Using last year's final rankings, which league appears to have more of the game's best players, defined as finishing in the top 10 at a position by RARP? Let's check:

Position	AL	NL	Notes
Catcher	4	6
First Base	5½	4½	Fred McGriff (Devil Rays and Cubs) is the half
Second Base	4	6	Roberto Alomar moved to the NL over the winter
Shortstop	6	4	The AL's stronghold, and this doesn't include Nomar Garciaparra
Third Base	5	5
Left Field	4	6	The NL had the top six
Center Field	5	5
Right Field	4	6

The NL has the edge at four spots, and the AL at two (one, if you call McGriff a National Leaguer). The AL, however, did have the top 14 DHs.

Is there a comparable gap on the mound? This time, we'll use Michael Wolverton's Support-Neutral and Reliever Evaluation Tools to choose the top 10 starters and relievers in each league:

Position    AL   NL
Starters     4    6
Relievers    5    5

The NL maintains an edge, albeit a slim one.

Why is this the case? Is there something the teams in the National League are doing better than their AL counterparts?

One reason is that the AL got the short straw in the last expansion. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays have been a bad baseball team in every year of their existence, while the Arizona Diamondbacks have been contenders in three of their four seasons. The D-Rays have, and have had, no star talent. Their All-Star representatives have been aging players who have made the team based on their past, not their present (Fred McGriff, Greg Vaughn). The Diamondbacks have the game's best pitcher -- Randy Johnson -- and two other superstars in Curt Schilling and Luis Gonzalez. It's a small difference, but one that favors the National League.

I believe the Yankees may play a factor. While the idea that nobody can compete with the Yankees and their revenues has been debunked in nearly every regular season -- they've had the best record in the AL just twice since the '94 strike -- they provide an easy excuse for teams and ownerships looking to excuse their lack of commitment to winning. Poor-mouthing about small markets and all the anti-marketing material that goes with it has become part and parcel of baseball in places like Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Minnesota, even in the face of the Twins' success last year and this. Teams in the National League don't have the Bronx boogeyman to use as an excuse.

Bad management has played a role. The AL has more teams being run poorly, and there's no reason to expect the Orioles, Devil Rays, Royals or Angels to get much better under current management. The NL has the abhorrent Expos situation, and the Angel of Death now taking over the Marlins, but each of those teams each have more good, young talent than the four AL teams above combined.

The worst situation in the NL probably belongs to the Brewers, who can at least claim the Golden Dollar Sign as the game's most profitable franchise, and have the semblance of a good young rotation and a decent power core. They're in an infinitely better spot than any of the AL's problem children.

The biggest reason, though, is no reason: it's a cyclical thing. Each league goes through high and low periods, dating back to the 1950s and 1960s, when the NL was ascendant. The AL caught and passed the Senior Circuit in the late 1970s, and held that place for most of the next decade. After a period of relative equality, the NL now has the upper hand. There's nothing systemic -- like the greater impact on non-white players that gave the NL its advantage in the post-war era -- that would lead you to believe that the AL is destined to maintain its second-class status.

You can check out more work from the team of writers of the Baseball Prospectus (tm) at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Joe Sheehan can be reached at jsheehan@baseballprospectus.com.