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Thursday, May 9
 
Perez's performance makes Dodgers early winners

By Joe Sheehan
Special to ESPN.com

Last winter had more trade activity than we'd seen in a while, as teams mostly ignored the unimpressive free-agent pool and elected to improve themselves the old-fashioned way.

It's only May, but some winners and losers from last year's swap sessions are already becoming clear. Who are they? Read on…

The Dodgers trade Gary Sheffield to the Braves for Brian Jordan, Odalis Perez and Andy Brown.

At the time, this looked like the worst kind of dump: it didn't save the Dodgers very much money, and it saddled them with an unproductive player, Jordan being the kind of low-OBP slugger they'd been underachieving with for years. With Sheffield, the Braves had upgraded their offense at very little cost, just a pitcher who hadn't been effective since undergoing elbow surgery in 1999.

Odalis Perez
Starting Pitcher
Los Angeles Dodgers
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM W-L IP H K ERA
7 4-1 54.1 30 35 1.66

Then that pitcher turned into an ace. Perez, who made the Dodgers rotation mostly because Omar Daal was awful in the spring, has been the best non-Diamondbacks pitcher in the league. With last night's eight-inning performance against his old team, he's now 4-1 with a 1.66 ERA. He's struck out 35 hitters and walked just six in 54 1/3 innings, averaging more than seven innings a start.

Perez's hot start doesn't look like a fluke. He's getting a ton of groundballs along with a reasonable number of strikeouts, and he bounced back from two high-pitch outings to have his best performance of the year, a one-hit shutout of the Cubs. It looks like he just needed some extra time to recover from the operation. Credit the Dodgers for stealing a pitcher from the Braves.

This trade has also provided one of the best stories of the year. Tuesday night, Jordan and Sheffield traded two-out, ninth-inning home runs; Jordan's gave the Dodgers a lead, while Sheffield's a few minutes later tied a game that would eventually be decided in 16 innings.

Heroics aside, neither outfielder is playing all that well. Jordan is hitting .267/.325/.466, about what you'd expect for him at this point in his career, although he is still a good left fielder. Hampered by a sprained left wrist, Sheffield isn't even matching that production, hobbling along at .227/.318/.371 so far. That won't last -- Sheffield hasn't had an OBP under .400 since 1994 -- but no matter how well he hits, it's hard to overcome being acquired for the second-best pitcher in the league.

Winner: Dodgers.

The Indians trade Roberto Alomar, Mike Bacsik and Danny Peoples to the Mets for Matt Lawton, Alex Escobar, Jarrod Riggan, Earl Snyder and Billy Traber.

The Mets made a bunch of trades this winter, including three big ones that reshaped an offense that had been the worst in the NL in 2001. The first big deal was an eight-player monster that netted them the best second baseman of this generation in exchange for ... well, a lot of guys who aren't going to be the best anything of this, or any other, generation.

The Indians went into the offseason looking to rebuild their team, and traded Alomar as part of an overall plan to reduce salary -- a plan that seemed as much a PR campaign as an actual plan. Alomar will make just $8 million this season, and given the subsequent multi-year commitments to Lawton and Alomar replacement Ricky Gutierrez, it's hard to defend the trade on economic grounds. From a baseball standpoint, only Lawton is helping right now, hitting .246/.351/.477 in the leadoff spot. Escobar is out for the season following a Certs Encounter with an outfield fence in Florida, while the best prospect in the deal, left-hander Billy Traber, is pitching well at Akron.

Alomar hasn't played well yet -- due in part to back pain -- and picking him up forced the Mets to move Edgardo Alfonzo to third base, but this is one of those deals that's hard to lose. The Mets have already dropped Peoples, and Bacsik isn't a prospect, so it comes down to five-for-one. But, oh, what a one.

Winner: Mets.

The Mets trade Kevin Appier to the Angels for Mo Vaughn.

Having added a second baseman and a table-setter, the Mets went looking for an infield partner and cleanup man. After a courtship just slightly longer than Sam and Diane's, they finally consummated an exchange of big contracts with the Angels.

Mo Vaughn
First Base
New York Mets
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM HR RBI R OPS AVG
19 1 8 8 .678 .254

It's hard to say who assumed more risk in this deal, which says a lot about the Hit Dog at this point in his career. It's not easy to be more risky than a 34-year-old starting pitcher with one good season in the last four and two years removed from looking like his career was over -- and with three years and $31 million to go on his deal. Vaughn, though, was a disappointment in his first two seasons on the West Coast and missed all of the third with a torn biceps. Predicting he would succeed in the pitchers' haven of Shea Stadium while being forced to play something like defense every day was not a bet many people west of the East River were taking.

So far, it's the Angels by a nose. Appier has performed exactly as advertised, a credible mid-rotation, six-inning starter. Vaughn hasn't hit at all -- .254/.354/.324 -- but like Alomar, he's been injured, missing two weeks after Jimmy Anderson bounced a pitch off his pinky. While the reasons for pessimism are all still present, it's hard to give him a failing grade just yet.

Winner: Angels, so far.

In a three-way deal, the Mets trade Todd Zeile and Benny Agbayani to the Rockies, and Glendon Rusch and Lenny Harris to the Brewers. They receive Jeromy Burnitz, Jeff D'Amico, Lou Collier and Mark Sweeney from the Brewers. The Rockies trade Alex Ochoa to the Brewers, and Ross Gload and Craig House to the Mets.

To cap his winter of wonder, Steve Phillips crafted a three-way deal that included 11 players, a half-dozen cows, two hot-dog vendors, and a case of Coors.

(Gload and House were Mets for about two weeks, combined. Gload was traded back to the Rockies for cash, and House was designated for assignment, both within 10 days of the deal. It's good to be wanted.)

Of the 11 players in this deal, just six are still in the organizations they were dealt to, so that simplifies things a little. Breaking it down, the Mets dealt Zeile, Agbayani, Rusch, and Harris for D'Amico and Burnitz; the Brewers swapped Burnitz, D'Amico, and roster filler for Rusch, Ochoa, and Harris; the Rockies traded Ochoa for Zeile and Agbayani.

Just based on performances to date, it's hard to pick a winner. For the Mets, D'Amico has been a healthy, strike-throwing machine, and Burnitz has matched his career numbers. The Brewers have gotten good work from Rusch, while Jeffrey Hammonds' run of good health has kept Ochoa in a fourth-outfielder role. Todd Zeile hasn't been affected by the Committee to Advance Soggy Horsehide, blasting his way to a .333/.398/.606 line. If D'Amico stays healthy, the Mets will win the deal, but right now everyone is pretty happy.

Winner: All.

The Athletics trade Mario Ramos, Ryan Ludwick, Jason Hart and Gerald Laird to the Rangers for Carlos Pena and Mike Venafro.

Four months later, this still doesn't look right. The Rangers may have been deep in corner infielders, but to trade a prospect the caliber of Pena for a collection of lesser prospects, none of whom looked to play a role with a team positioning itself for 2002, was a questionable decision.

So far, it's worked out well for the A's, who stood by Pena during a horrific late-spring stretch in which he went 0-for-73 or so. He's hitting .231/.325/.471 -- currently mired in a 1-for-20 slump -- and playing good defense at first base. It's not "Jason Who?" time, but there isn't $15 million worth of difference between the two players.

The good news for the Rangers is that some of the talent they received is doing well in the minors, no doubt a credit to ex-Athletics scouting director Grady Fuson, now working for Texas. Ryan Ludwick is knocking on the door of The Ballpark, hitting .281/.386/.531 for Triple-A Oklahoma. Catching prospect Gerald Laird is playing fairly well at Double-A Tulsa, allowing the Rangers to at least consider trading Ivan Rodriguez. Neither Hart nor Ramos has had much success this year, but both are B prospects who have shown better in past seasons.

Winner: Athletics.

The White Sox traded Kip Wells, Sean Lowe and Josh Fogg to the Pirates for Todd Ritchie and Lee Evans.

Todd Ritchie
Starting Pitcher
Chicago White Sox
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM W-L IP H K ERA
7 3-2 44.2 40 29 3.02

It was an easy trade to criticize: Kenny Williams once again trading away the fruit of a productive farm system for a veteran innings-muncher without much upside. Ritchie was just a few years removed from the waiver wire, and even at his best hadn't been much more than a mid-rotation guy. To get him, the Sox gave up Sean Lowe -- who sure looked a lot like Todd Ritchie, circa 1999 -- and two of their better young pitchers in Wells and Fogg.

To Williams' credit, Ritchie has been done exactly what the Sox needed him to do, taking the ball every fifth day and keeping the team in games. For a team trying to win a division, that's a valuable asset. While Williams' frequent moves to add veterans haven't been successful as a whole, this move in particular has worked out as well as could be expected.

That's not to say that the Pirates are displeased. This was a perfect deal for the Bucs, who needed to accumulate as much talent as possible, given the state of their organization. While Lowe has been a disappointment (and at that, has peripheral numbers that don't match his 7.71 ERA), Josh Fogg has been an ace, with a 2.45 ERA in six starts, and Kip Wells has shown signs of being a top starter. This is easily the best move of Dave Littlefield's brief career as GM, and a blueprint for what he needs to do going forward.

Winner: Pirates, but it's close.

The Mariners trade Brett Tomko, Ramon Vazquez, and Tom Lampkin to the Padres for Ben Davis, Wascar Serrano and Alex Arias.

With one exception, this trade could have been a "Friends" episode: "The One Where Everyone Sucks." Arias was released by the M's, Serrano is throwing lousy relief for Tacoma and the three major-league hitters are batting a combined .180 without power, speed, walks, charm, a good smile ... hell, anything.

Tomko, though, is making the most of his long-awaited return to the majors. He's made six good starts in seven outings, including a 13-strikeout gem against the Dodgers. Along with Perez and Fogg, he's one of the great pitching surprises in the NL this year, and has single-handedly won the trade for the Padres.

Winner: Padres.

The Blue Jays trade Billy Koch to the Athletics for Eric Hinske and Justin Miller.

Part of a pair of J.P. Ricciardi deals that began the process of rebuilding the Blue Jays, this deal may be the one from last winter that has turned out best for both sides. Koch has been ridiculously effective for the A's, allowing just five hits and seven walks in 14 2/3 innings. He's taken well to the tutelage of Rick Peterson, and looks ready to ascend to the Hoffman/Nen class of closers.

The big winner in this deal was really Hinske, who was trapped behind Eric Chavez at third base. He's been a bit shaky defensively -- nine errors, two double plays so far -- but is hitting .325/.391/.544. Miller, an A's prospect with no place to go in an organization deep in pitching, started the season poorly before looking good in his last start, a seven-inning, one-run performance against the Angels.

Winner: A's, barely.

The Blue Jays trade Alex Gonzalez to the Cubs for Felix Heredia and Jim Deschaine.

This one hasn't worked out as well for Ricciardi, although moving Gonzalez did clear room for shortstop prospect Felipe Lopez. Heredia, who has been one of the more frustrating pitchers in recent memory, has an ERA of 3.79, but allowed six of his eight earned runs in one nightmare outing against the Yankees. He's been very good in long relief, with five outings of at last two innings and no runs allowed. Set free from the one-batter role Don Baylor tried to force him into, Heredia may well end up a valuable commodity.

Jim Deschaine hasn't hit so far at Double-A Tennessee, and with Hinske and Lopez seemingly set on the left side of the Jays' infield, he may need to find his way in another organization.

The Cubs got what they wanted in the deal: a good glove at shortstop who could contribute with the bat. Yeah, I've been pushing Gonzalez since the third grade, but he has been a contributor at the plate this year, hitting .261/.328/.432. Factor in defense, and he has a case for the All-Star team. That's a good pickup, all for just $6 million.

Winner: Cubs.

The Tigers trade Juan Encarnacion and Luis Pineda to the Reds for Dmitri Young.

Well, Encarnacion has beaten out Ken Griffey Jr. for the center-field job in ... OK, maybe it's a good thing that fans don't get to fill out the lineup card, eh? Encarnacion has played well in Griffey's absence, slugging .556 in regular duty. On the other hand, his plate discipline isn't any better -- nine walks, 28 strikeouts in 135 at-bats -- and his .331 OBP is nothing special for an outfielder. He's a good fourth outfielder, mob rule notwithstanding.

The big winner in this deal is Young, who reached the Tigers at a point when they were giving out long-term contracts to anyone who wasn't under indictment. His four-year, $28.5-million deal makes him virtually untradable, and is a silly commitment to a player who's never shown the kind of power you want from a first baseman. Young has been out since mid-April with a hernia.

Let's put it this way: Luis Pineda has been ejected, suspended and had to leave one game because he was dizzy, and the Reds almost win the deal without even considering Encarnacion.

Winner: Reds.

Those were the 10 biggest deals of last winter. Here are some quick verdicts on some of the other swaps that occurred; players are listed with the team that acquired them, and the trade winner is in bold.

Rangers: Carl Everett
Red Sox: Darren Oliver

Oliver weighs about 150 pounds. Everett gained a Darren Oliver over the winter.

Yankees: Robin Ventura
Mets: Mark Guthrie
Athletics: David Justice

This wasn't actually a three-way deal, but it was effectively one. All three are playing well; Ventura is just playing more.

Yankees: John Vander Wal
Giants: Jay Witasick

Witasick has an ERA of 1.46, but works less than your average Kennedy scion (eight appearances in six weeks).

Mets: Shawn Estes
Giants: Tsuyoshi Shinjo, (David Bell)

(Bell was acquired straight up for Desi Relaford, the other player in the Estes deal. The transitive property really deserved its own "Schoolhouse Rock.")

Shinjo made Tom Goodwin look like a viable option. That cancels out David Bell's work. It almost cancels out Barry Bonds.

Rockies: Dennis Stark, Brian Fuentes, Jose Paniagua
Mariners: Jeff Cirillo

None of the three players the Rockies got are in the majors.

You can check out more work from the team of writers of the Baseball Prospectus (tm) at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Joe Sheehan can be reached at jsheehan@baseballprospectus.com.






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