We all know what could happen on Aug. 30. There's been no shortage of commentary and venting about the possibility of a work stoppage, potentially eliminating the MLB postseason for the second time in less than a decade. But there are some significant signs of hope that didn't exist in 1994. The MLBPA and owners agree on the basic structure of a deal, so it may just be a matter of arriving at a set of numbers that both sides can live with.

But what about the baseball impact of a potential stoppage? If there is a brief, 1985-style work stoppage, and the season's shortened, even a little, how might it really affect the game? If the games do stop, and then an agreement is reached, it's going to take a day or so to get everyone back in the proper places and continue the season. It's entirely possible that we may end up with a slightly shortened season, a la 1995, with a few games slightly delayed, and a few simply canceled. So what kind of impact on the pennant race might that have? Who might benefit from a few strategically eliminated games? Which teams have a few tired arms or nagging injuries that could use an unplanned week or two off to get healthy?

American League
The AL is home to one of the best races in recent memory, and two of the worst. If the Twins suddenly became a mediocre team and played .500 ball from here on out, the White Sox would have to go 34-1 down the stretch to catch them. The Red Sox also aren't going to make up a seven-game deficit on the Yankees. But over in the AL West, the battle between Anaheim, Oakland and Seattle has the look of a bloody streetfight. Even a small impact on those teams could profoundly affect who plays in the postseason and who doesn't.

Schedule
For purposes of illustration, let's look at the strength of schedule for the AL postseason contenders, starting on Aug.30:

Team	Two series	Five series	Seven series
Yankees	.500	.466	.438
Red Sox	.531	.452	.454
Twins	.602	.513	.488
Angels	.414	.481	.518
Athletics	.516	.569	.556
Mariners	.479	.479	.488

The percentages shown are the cumulative winning percentages of each team's opponents for two, five, and seven series, beginning on the strike date. For example, the Angels' first two series beginning on Aug. 30 are three games each against the Devil Rays (a .331 team), and the Orioles (a .496 team), resulting in a .414 aggregate winning percentage.

If the Twins were in an actual pennant race, and were forced to choose a week or so during the season to cancel, they'd have to be pretty happy about missing Oakland and Seattle. Anaheim's player rep would have to think pretty hard about voting to miss a chance to beat up on the D-Rays while Oakland and Boston played real baseball teams. If it's a short strike that causes a week of games to be cancelled, and Anaheim misses the postseason by a game or two, Angel fans may start developing the same paranoid complex currently suffered by Cub and Red Sox fans. Oakland gets the best of it across the board if a week or three is missed, playing Minnesota home and away, then joining the AL West fray. Anaheim and Seattle enjoy more Kansas City/Texas/Baltimore/Tampa Bay padding in their schedules.

Injuries
The Yankees could certainly use a healthy Mariano Rivera and Nick Johnson as they head towards the postseason, but neither is an absolute crippling loss, and there's some doubt as to if either will be ready in October in any event. The Red Sox don't have any significant injuries to speak of, but given their reliance on the tandem of Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe, they might well benefit from a week of rest. If Anaheim does miss out on a chance to take advantage of a soft schedule, there is the silver lining that Tim Salmon would likely return after a brief strike, but Aaron Sele's shoulder injury is another matter entirely. Oakland could return Ted Lilly to the rotation after a brief strike, but it's not as if Oakland's rotation, 9-0 with an ERA under 2.00 over the last nine games, has been a particular sore spot as of late.

If there is a very brief strike, Anaheim may be the team that suffers the most. In a tight race, no one wants to miss a chance to play a soft schedule.

National League
It's not going to be easy for a brief work stoppage to have much of an impact on the races in the NL; there really aren't any races in the NL, with the exception of the wild card. Atlanta's already got their NL East title in storage, Houston's barely within shouting distance of the Cardinals in the Central, with Cincinnati faltering behind them. In the West, the Diamondbacks could probably ride their eight-game lead until the end of the string even if Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson were to take the last five weeks off.

Schedule
Despite the lack of compelling divisional races, the wild card is in play, so let's look at the strength of schedule for the contenders (and I use the term loosely) during a potential strike.

Team	Two series	Five series	Seven series
Braves	.463	.472	.475
Reds	.459	.424	.433
Astros	.491	.521	.505
Cardinals	.457	.449	.462
Diamondbacks	.566	.496	.483
Dodgers	.583	.540	.528
Giants	.572	.552	.530

Let's focus on the wild-card contenders. Thanks to an outstanding job this year by the league's scheduling office, Arizona, Los Angeles, and San Francisco will spend the last few weeks of the year in head-to-head matchups. So while Cincinnati's battling with titans like Milwaukee, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia, the Dodgers and Giants will be dealing with each other, with an occasional visit from Mr. Schilling and Mr. Johnson.

Cincinnati may be 9½ games out of the wild card, but if there's no strike, they could make up a lot of ground during that stretch of the schedule. A strike of any length would extinguish their already slim playoff hopes. Atlanta's 18½-game lead of Montreal looks pretty safe with or without a strike; it's not a great bet that Montreal will win 19 more games in its history. The Cardinals face off against Houston for seven games added filler of the Cubs and Brewers. Despite the wrenching losses they've faced this year, they're in an awfully good position with or without the loss of a few games.

Injuries
The Braves have muscled all year to build that big lead in the East, and that's a good thing, particularly if Andruw Jones' shoulder injury turns out to be serious. I think the Braves' pitching staff would, under different circumstances, be very happy to let Andruw heal up and be fully healthy for the postseason. Cincinnati's nagging injury parade of Ken Griffey Jr. and Barry Larkin could certainly use some time off, but it's not clear they'd improve much anyway, and the Reds have a huge amount of ground to make up. In Houston, a brief timeout isn't going to help Julio Lugo or Shane Reynolds; the Cardinals have similarly little to gain in terms of recuperation time.

In the West, the Diamondbacks are a deep team with a strong bench, and by the 30th of this month, they're not likely to have a pressing need for time off. The Dodgers have the most to gain healthwise from a potential break, with Kevin Brown working out the kinks from his elbow and back injuries. That, and they lead the wid-card race by 2½ games. Barry Bonds' hamstring injury has already mostly healed. In the NL, only the Braves have much potential for gain in terms of improved health, should a brief work stoppage come to pass.

Overall, the Reds have the most to lose in the case of a stoppage. Not only are they already a significant distance behind the leaders, but they're scheduled to play the league's weak sisters right during the part of the season that could be lost.

A strike is going to affect some teams more than others. Obviously, having a reduction in the length of the season is going to hurt any team with ground to make up. You can't make up any deficit by watching ESPNEWS for negotiation updates. For teams like Anaheim and Cincinnati, a work stoppage would be especially painful, because any stoppage would have a disproportionate effect on their chances of getting a ring.

Baseball teams deal with logistical oddities all the time. Planes get stuck on the tarmac, changing an arrival time of midnight to 3 a.m. Games occasionally go 15 innings, even after the starter's lifted after only three innings, wreaking havoc on a bullpen. Rainouts give an often unpredictable half a day off, at the cost of either a doubleheader or lost off day later in the season. On a strictly baseball level, a potential strike is another logistical problem that teams have to plan for, much like extra innings or a rainout. Hopefully, we'll be able to dodge the storm front that's due to arrive on Aug. 30.

You can check out more work from the team of writers of the Baseball Prospectus at baseballprospectus.com. Gary Huckabay can be reached at ghuckabay@baseballprospectus.com. Baseball Prospectus is a registered trademark of Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.