With the Hot Stove Heaters behind us, and the STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook on the shelves, it's time to return to the mailbag and answer some email questions about minor-league players. I've got plenty of questions sitting here, so let's get right to it.
Sam Kim writes: My roommate in high school remembered a former teammate Horacio Ramirez who was drafted by the Braves. We decided to look up how he was doing and was surprised to see him in Myrtle Beach with a 3:1 K\BB ratio, and less hits than innings pitched.
He was also ranked the 11th-best Atlanta prospect by Baseball America. Can you tell me more information on him and what he's projected to become in the future?
I like Ramirez. As you point out, he posted a nice K/BB ratio (125/42 in 148 innings). He went 15-8 with a 3.22 ERA. I'm not quite ready to put him on the top prospect lists, however. His strikeout rate, compared to league norms, was only average last year.
Plus, Myrtle Beach is an outstanding pitcher's park. Additionally, while Ramirez has good stuff, he doesn't have an overpowering fastball. I gave him a Grade C+ in my book, and I want to see what happens to him in the tougher Double-A environment.
Alex R. writes: Will Ted Lilly ever get his shot to shine with the Yankees?
Heck if I know. With some teams, he'd be a lock for the rotation, but he's got plenty of competition in New York, and might end up getting stuck in the bullpen. He's still just 25, with successful Triple-A time under his belt.
The main concern for Lilly has always been durability. In that sense, being with the Yankees is good for his career, since they are less likely to push him into a situation he isn't ready for. Of course, if he spends too long in Triple-A, he'll get a label attached to him.
Jason Lash writes: Everyone loves Corey Patterson. However, he has yet to put up good numbers at any level he has played at, professionally speaking. Is he really that good, or is he the most over-hyped Cub since Lance Dickson?
Oh, boy, don't mention Lance Dickson around Cub fans. You'll cause heart attacks.
I would disagree with your assessment that Patterson hasn't put up good numbers. He hit .320 with 20 homers, 17 triples, and 33 steals in 1999. He slammed 22 homers and swiped 27 bases in 2000, as a 20-year old in Double-A. Yes, he only hit .261, but at his age .261 in Double-A, especially in a pitcher's park, is quite respectable.
My main concern is his strike zone judgment, which is still marginal although he did raise his walk rate last year. I think he needs a full year of Triple-A, and if the Cubs rush him in '01, they may regret it. Why waste a year of service time on someone who isn't quite ready?
The bottom line is, I don't think Patterson is over-hyped as a long-term prospect, but Cubs fans need to be prepared for some growing pains if they push him too fast.
Thomas Murray writes: Do you see any hope for Cleveland prospects Zach Sorensen (shortstop) and Scott Pratt (second base), with Omar Vizquel and Roberto Alomar ahead of them? Are they even seen as potential big leaguers?
When they were drafted in 1998, Pratt and Sorensen were supposed to be the infield combination of the future for the Indians. Both were polished college players with good defensive skills, good hitting track records, and good work ethics. It hasn't worked out very well.
Pratt has a .256 career average, with a weak .376 slugging percentage. Sorensen has been about the same: .257 average, .374 slugging. Both have shown some fair on-base ability, but have developed little power, and overall have been big disappointments. You don't see their names on hot prospect lists anymore, and they've been passed by Maircer Izturis on the middle infield depth charts.
I'm not quite ready to give up on either one, but right now they look like utility players at best.
Amos P. writes: I just read your Hot Stove Heater for the Pirates, along with
your minor-league report for them. There was one name whose absence was glaring: Chad Hermansen. Between the two pieces, all he got was an "others of note" mention in the minor-league report. Are you that turned off to him?
You seem to have faith in Aramis Ramirez. Does Hermansen just have plate discipline that's so bad that he'll never be able to hit major league pitching? Are his tools just not good enough to make up for his flaws, and is he too old to turn it around?
Well, Hermansen isn't old, being just 23, so he still has time to turn things around. But I'll be surprised if he develops for the Pirates. He still has great athletic ability, including power and speed, but his strike zone judgment has deteriorated over the last year and a half or so.
I saw him play in Triple-A after his demotion, and he looked totally frustrated. His swing was fouled up; he was chasing bad pitches outside the strike zone; he looked angry and confused. I don't know if it is the instruction or just a coincidence, but the Pirates seem to have a lot of trouble instilling plate discipline in their young hitters.
I think Chad needs a change of scenery for his skills to blossom.
John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2001 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.
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