Here are more questions from my mailbag backlog. Thanks for your patience, everyone. We'll do a rookie-of-the-year preview next week.
David writes: Hello. I really enjoy your articles. I am curious to know your thoughts on the future of Devil Rays outfield Kenny Kelly, and who he might remind you of at the major-league level.
As some of you know, Kelly used to be a quarterback for the University of Miami. He played 124 games in Double-A last year, hitting .252 with a weak .337 slugging percentage. He did swipe 31 bases, but he was also caught 21 times. He played a bit better than that when he was in Class A, but it's obvious he has a lot of work to do turning his tools into skills.
One advantage Kelly has is his age: he is just 22, and didn't play baseball full-time until last year. It isn't impossible for him to develop, and he does draw some walks, meaning that he isn't a lost cause yet. I wouldn't put him on any fantasy teams at this stage, and his chance of becoming a useful player is less than 50/50.
Kelly doesn't remind me of anyone in particular at the major-league level. Because of his physical abilities (speed, strength, general athleticism), he'll get occasional play in the press as a good prospect, but wait and see for some actual strong performance before going overboard on him. I've actually been optimistic about him in the past, but he stagnated as a prospect last year.
Tyson O. writes: The Royals are really pumped about Dee Brown. Do you think Brown will be an important asset for K.C.?
Brown is having a good spring, hitting .314 in 12 games through Thursday. With Johnny Damon in Oakland, it's a good bet that Brown will be in the outfield for the Royals this year. He had mixed results at Triple-A Omaha in '00, but the attitude problems that waylaid him last year seem to have been resolved.
Brown will be on potential Rookie of the Year lists. He's got some of the best bat speed in the game, generating excellent raw power. His problems in the past have revolved around consistency with the strike zone, as well as questions about his defense. I'm more concerned about the former than the latter.
STATS projects Brown hitting .279 with a .488 slugging percentage if he gets enough playing time, not bad at all for a 23-year-old. That sounds about right to me. So to answer your question, yes, Brown will be an asset for the Royals. He could end up as a lefty-hitting version of Jermaine Dye.
Paul writes: I have a bet with my buddy that the Detroit Tigers, despite the loss of Doug Brocail, Brad Ausmus and Juan Gonzalez, will win at least 70 games this year. In your opinion, where do you see the Detroit Tigers in the next few years? Is there any hope with their attempts of rebuilding, or is owner Mike Ilitch "giving up" on the team and I should consider moving to New York or Boston?
I wrote in the Tigers Hot Stove Heater that Detroit looks like a .500 club. They are 7-7 in spring training so far, and unless something catastrophic happens, they should win at least 70 without too much trouble. So I think you'll win your bet.
As for the future, that is less assured. Randy Smith's rebuilding project has met with mixed results. The farm system is in better condition than it was five years ago, but is not among the elite in the game by any means. Ownership wants to hold the line on spending until the labor situation is resolved, which makes sense to me in the big picture, but must be frustrating for fans.
Another factor to consider is the fluid nature of the American League Central Division. Every team in the division thinks it has a chance to compete over the next three years, and they are all correct. The White Sox have a stockpile of young pitching to go with their hitting attack. The Royals have a good young offensive core. The Twins lack stars, but have an underrated pitching staff and could surprise if a couple of hitters develop. The Indians are getting old and have mortgaged too much from the farm system, but have the resources to remain competitive. Figuring out where the Tigers will be in three years depends as much on what happens with the rest of these teams as it does on their own merits.
Don't move to Boston or New York. Even if the Tigers lose 120 games a year, don't move to Boston or New York. Leave those towns to David E. Kelly and Steven Bochco.
H.S. writes: Hey John. I got two Giants questions for you. 1) What should the Giants do about their future at third? They got three great prospects: Pedro Feliz, Tony Torcato and Lance Niekro. What should they do? Pick one and trade the rest? 2) Who do you project to be a better pitching prospect: Kurt Ainsworth or Jerome Williams?
Feliz is outplaying Russ Davis this spring, and is likely the solution at the position for the next couple of years, while Torcato and Niekro work their way up the ladder in the system. Feliz looks like a 20-25 homer hitter to me, similar to Davis in fact. Torcato has a sweet swing, but has yet to develop consistent power, while Niekro (Joe's son) hit .362 in rookie ball last year after signing as a second-round pick.
My best guess is that Niekro is going to emerge as the best all-around player in the group. He should be ready about the same time as Feliz becomes eligible for arbitration.
As for the pitchers, that's a tough call. Ainsworth is older, more polished, and pitched well last year in the Texas League (10-9, 3.30 ERA, 130/63 K/BB ratio). He throws pretty hard and knows how to pitch. Williams has more raw ability, and was quite effective himself in '00, posting a 2.94 ERA in the rough California League. He reminds scouts of a young Dwight Gooden, though he doesn't throw as hard.
I'd take Williams right now, but it's a close call.
Joey writes: What do you think of Cory Aldridge? What do the Braves think of him? Has he reached prospect status? I know he is on the Braves' 40 man roster but Baseball America doesn't even list him on their list of top 15 Braves prospects.
The Braves are good at developing pitchers, but they have trouble turning athletes into hitters. Aldridge hit 15 homers last year, and played in a tough park at Myrtle Beach. He is quite strong and has power potential and youth on his side, being just 21 entering the season. But his strike zone judgment is horrible, with a 33/118 BB/K ratio last year in 401 at-bats. I will be very surprised if he develops into a useful player unless his plate discipline improves.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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