|
||||
| ESPN Network: ESPN | NBA.com | NHL.com | ABC | Radio | EXPN | Insider | Shop | Fantasy |
 |
| ||||||||||
Thursday, March 29 Is Vernon Wells a Ron Gant clone? By John Sickels Special to ESPN.com | ||||||||||
| With the season almost upon us, let's take one more big dip into the mailbag.
J.B. writes: Is Juan Uribe, the Colorado shortstop prospect, the real deal? For long-term fantasy purposes, the idea of getting a Rockie middle infielder with some pop is just so enticing that it sometimes clouds one's judgment. What's your take on this youngster?
Uribe is a guy who has received less attention than he deserves. He hit .256 with 13 homers and 22 steals for Class A Salem last year at age 20. He is also an excellent defensive shortstop, leading the Carolina League in fielding percentage while showing good range and a very strong arm.
His plate discipline is a problem: he drew 38 walks while fanning 100 times, not a good ratio at all. But given his age, power/speed skills, and defensive prowess, he is clearly someone to watch. If he handles the transition to Double-A this year, you should see him in Coors Field by 2003. I'd be careful of a massive fantasy investment at this stage, but he is clearly someone to think about stashing away on a farm roster if you have the space.
Ron and Megan ask: What is your view of the Phillies minor-league shortstops? The team is very high on young Anderson Machado who is a whiz with the glove and made it to Double-A last season, but has never hit. They also paid a significant bonus for young shortstop Carlos Rosario.
I like Jimmy Rollins, although I think they need to keep their expectations reasonable for him. Machado swiped 32 bases last year for Clearwater in the Class A Florida State League, but he fanned 103 times, doesn't have a lot of power, and hit just .248. Scouts rave about his defense, but are unsure about his bat; the main thing he has on his side is age, being just 20, so he has plenty of time to get stronger and make better contact. Double-A will tell us a lot.
Rosario signed out of the Dominican Republic for $700,000 in October. He has blazing speed and should be good with the glove, but we haven't seen him hit yet.
The key here is that the Phillies are trying to bring more talent into a farm system that has been weak for a long time, and are willing to put out some bucks to do it. The Rosario signing, increased presence in Asia and Latin America, and more aggressive drafting (Pat Burrell) are all part of this process. They still have work to do, but they are taking the necessary steps.
Amos writes: Is Mark Buehrle really that poised beyond his years and experience, or are the White Sox going to be sadly mistaken if and when they throw him into the fire this year?
Frankly, I've never had a strong feel for Buehrle as a prospect. He surprised me last year, and has done enough in spring training to solidify a hold on a job in 2001. He can start or relieve, throws pretty hard, and throws strikes.
Looking at his numbers, including his sound K/BB ratios, I don't see anything to make me think he will struggle. He isn't Steve Carlton or Sandy Koufax, but his numbers are solid across the board, the White Sox like him, and he's moved very quickly through the system. I don't think they will be sadly mistaken if they give him a job, and he could be one of the better lefties in the league eventually if he stays healthy.
It wouldn't surprise me if he turns out better than some of the more-heralded pitchers in the White Sox system.
Samia C. writes: I was disappointed to see your comparison of Vernon Wells to Ron Gant. We have Wells on our fantasy league team roster, and since our league puts overwhelming emphasis on batting average, we had hoped that Wells would be a high-average hitter. By your comment, do you mean that you expect Wells to
hit .250 -.270, like Gant? Also, do you think Corey Patterson will hit for a high average once he gets settled in the major leagues?
First of all, yes I expect Corey Patterson to hit for average once he gets settled in. He won't win batting titles right away, but he's not a .230 hitter, either. I'd expect him to hit a consistent .280-.300 with spikes higher than that, with lots of power and speed, provided of course that the Cubs don't find a way to mess his swing up, or that the powers that be don't raise the mound six inches.
As for Wells, it's hard to say at this point, given the mixture of data we have to work with. He hit just .243 last year, but was way over .300 the year before that. He certainly has the bat speed to hit for average, if he chooses to go that route, but he could decide to concentrate on hitting for power. At a minimum I see him as a .260ish hitter like Gant, but he could do better than that of course. Either way he should provide plenty of power and speed.
Consider talking your fellow owners into changing the league rules ...:)
Vince H. writes: I'm not a Tiger fan, but I noticed Norm Cash's stats about two months ago. Why has he not been given more consideration for the Hall of Fame? He has the numbers for it -- and he was above average defensively. His offensive numbers are well-above average for the time that he played.
Not a prospect question, but I've been interested in Cash for years, so let's take a look at his career.
In 1961, Norm Cash hit .361 with 41 homers, 132 RBI, 119 runs, a .487 on-base percentage, and a .662 slugging percentage. He never had another year like that, and as Bill James points out in The Historical Baseball Abstract, he was unfavorably compared to Al Kaline throughout his career.
That said, Cash was an excellent player. He hit for power and hit for a decent batting average compared to the context of his times, in addition to being a fine defensive player. As you point out, his numbers compared to league norms during the 1960s are quite good. But does he belong in the Hall of Fame?
I looked at Cash's numbers using Sean Forman's outstanding baseball-reference.com website. One of the things that Sean puts on his site are similarity scores, another Bill James idea, which gives a simple way to compare players. It's too long to explain here; Sean provides an explanation on his site.
Here are the most similar players in major league history to Norm Cash, according to the similarity score method.
1) Gil Hodges (926 sim score) 2) Frank Howard (911) 3) Boog Powell (909) 4) Rocky Colavito (905) 5) Joe Adcock (904) 6) Jack Clark (901) 7) Roy Sievers (888) 8) George Foster (876) 9) Greg Luzinski (867) 10) Lee May (866) This is a list of top-notch sluggers, but last I checked none of these guys were in the Hall of Fame. One thing to note about the similarity score method: it doesn't account for differences across eras, although I do think it is fair to say that Cash was a comparable player to most of the guys in this group, especially Powell. There are two other James-inspired comparative methodologies on Forman's site, the "Hall of Fame Standards test" and the "Hall of Fame Monitor". Again, I don't have room to explain them fully here, but Sean provides clear explanations on how the systems work. Again Cash comes up a bit short. Cash earns a Standards score of 29.2, with 50 denoting an average Hall of Famer. His Monitor score is 47.0, with 100 being a "likely" Hall of Fame candidate. Now, none of this is meant to belittle Norm Cash, who had a great career and has nothing to be ashamed of. If Cash played today's high-octane version of baseball, he'd hit .300 with 35 homers a year. It's not his fault he played when offense was at historic lows. Would I vote for Norm Cash for the Hall of Fame? Probably not. But I don't have a ballot, and there are lots of guys in the Hall whom I wouldn't have voted for. I would certainly vote for Cash as "one of the best first basemen of the 1960s" if that was a category. John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html. |
| |||||||||
|
|
