The Down on the Farm mailbag has proven to be quite popular, so popular that the powers-that-be at ESPN.com have decided to make it a weekly feature, in addition to the normal prospect reports which will start next week. So keep those questions coming, folks.
Chuck writes: I saw your predictions on ESPN.com. We have a problem. The Twins ahead of the Tigers? May I ask you a question? Do you do this for a living? Just wondering, since anyone including a retarded chimpanzee could tell that your prediction on the Tigers is wrong. I'll be watching and reading your articles, and so will a few of my friends. We will constantly hassle you throughout the season about this outrageous and bold pick. So watch and think about what you write, or else I will continue to annoy you.
I wasn't alone in picking the Twins ahead of the Tigers. On the ESPN.com staff, Jayson Stark, Sean McAdam, Bob Klapisch, Alan Schwarz, and Rany Jazayerli all predicted Minnesota ahead of Detroit in 2001, as I did. I guess the primate house is pretty crowded around here.
Both teams have strengths and some major weaknesses. The Twins went 19-14 this spring, the Tigers 13-14. The Twins have a decent pitching staff, but must get a better hitting attack. The Tigers have several decent players, but are frequently plagued with injuries. Jeff Weaver could be outstanding. So could Eric Milton.
Both clubs could get to .500 or so if everything goes right. Picking the Twins ahead of the Tigers could mean that the Twins win 74 games and the Tigers win 72. There's a lot of parity in the American League Central Division, and I don't think anyone is going to run away with the division like the White Sox did last year.
You are free to hassle me if you like, but please include logic and reason in your arguments, rather than pure appeals to emotion.
T.G.D. asks: For years, Robinson Checo has been touted as a pitcher with a very high upside, but plenty of unfulfilled potential to date. Last year, it looked like he performed extremely well for the Dodgers at Triple-A Alburquerque (although I think he was shut down briefly due to injury), but I never hear his name mentioned as a candidate for a major-league job. What gives? Is there any chance the Dodgers would consider him for a No. 5 starter position? What about a bullpen spot? I don't understand why his numbers last year don't warrant him getting a big-league audition this year.
Indeed, Checo pitched quite well for Albuquerque in 2000. An 8-3 record and 3.63 ERA is nothing to sneeze at, along with 85 strikeouts in 87 innings, with just 33 walks. Checo does have problems staying healthy, and he has to fight a reputation as a disappointment. He was supposed to be super-hot stuff with the Red Sox a few years back, but hasn't adjusted well in his major-league trials. Also, he's 29 now, at the point where he is no longer considered to be a prospect by scouts. He also has a reputation as a headcase, which is often unfair, but hurts a player's chances until he gets established.
That said, Checo still has enough ability to help someone, somewhere, assuming he is healthy. He throws hard and has proven he can handle Triple-A. He is likely a better pitcher than several guys with pensions.
David A. writes: Jackson Melian's progress has been slower than the pundits predicted in terms of power, but all the other facets of his game (SB, OBP, etc.) seem to be progressing. Is this kid Ricky Ledee, Rusty Greer, or Junior Griffey?
I'm an agnostic about Jackson Melian. Yes, he's got tremendous tools, and yes, he has been very young for his leagues. I want to see clear improvement in his numbers, however, before I start rating him highly. He did improve last year, as you point out, but not by much.
He swiped 17 bases at Double-A Norwich, being caught just once. He set a career-high with nine homers, but his walk rate dropped drastically, his OBP slipping to a slimy .299. He is certainly a fine defensive player, and has learned how to run the bases, but I worry that his bat isn't going to progress substantially.
Of course, he was just 20 last year, and 20-year olds in Double-A have a habit of making sudden progress. On the other hand, the Reds have three outfield prospects who already combine tools and skills: Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn, and Ben Broussard. Melian has a lot of competition in the system, and if he doesn't get the bat going within the next year or two, he might have trouble getting a chance.
Melian is not Junior Griffey, I'll tell you that much. He has a chance to develop into Rusty Greer, although with more speed and probably less power.
John from Long Island writes: I am from Commack, New York. In the past couple of years, our high school has yielded two players drafted, one high and one low, the high being Rick Riccobono by the Red Sox and the other Gregg Foster by the Phillies, by way of Stony Brook University. I was wondering what the future holds for these two players.
Riccobono was drafted in the sixth round in 1998, although some teams had him ranked as early as the third. He throws pretty hard and has some measure of control, and did fairly decently last year, winning 10 games for Class A Augusta, with a fine 3.27 ERA. On the other hand, he fanned just 72 in 124 innings, a poor ratio that was 35 percent worse than the rest of the Sally League.
Pitchers with strikeout rates that low in A-ball seldom do well at higher levels. The good news is that he is only 21, and has more time to refine his craft.
Foster was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Phillies last year. An outfielder, he hit .281 with eight steals in 50 games for rookie-level Clearwater. At this point, he can't really be considered a prospect, since he was a college guy playing against raw rookie-ball teenagers, but we'll keep an eye on him this year.
I hope both players make your school and town proud.
Dave P. writes: Do you have any comment on Travis Wilson, a second baseman in the Atlanta Braves system? Do you see a future for him in the major leagues with Atlanta or elsewhere? We don't see much in the press about him down here in New Zealand and the only way to get a feel for whether he will make the big time is through internet sites like ESPN.com.
Wow. New Zealand? I've always wanted to visit New Zealand.
Wilson is from Christchurch, New Zealand and was signed by the Braves as a free agent in 1996. He hit .275 with 12 homers for Myrtle Beach last year, but with a horrendous 16/111 BB/K ratio.
Wilson hit .415 with a .717 slugging percentage for the Braves in spring training. He almost made the roster as a result, but prudence carried the day and he will begin the year in the minor leagues. No one has ever questioned his athletic ability; the problem has always been strike zone judgment.
Has he turned the corner? I don't know. Wilson is on my list of players to watch closely as the '01 minor-league season begins. I'll be looking at his BB/K numbers more than his batting average or power. If his strike zone judgment shows improvement, the Braves could end up having another special prospect on their hands.
Dave I. asks: Do you believe that Dan Wright in the White Sox system has mastered his control problems enough to become a legitimate major-league pitcher? Do you see him making the club in the next year or so?
Wright was a second-round pick in 1999, from the University of Arkansas. He can hit 95 mph, but as you mention, he has control problems. He posted a pretty impressive 2.49 ERA in 43.1 Double-A innings last year, but walked 24 and fanned just 31 despite his velocity. He's got a great curve to go with the heater, but his command is unreliable, and I think he'll struggle as a starter at higher levels.
His best bet will probably come as a reliever. I like his raw arm strength, but I rank him behind some of the other hot pitchers in the White Sox system, especially Jon Rauch.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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