Lots of questions today. Let's get to it.
Gary S. writes: I live in Vermont, so minor-league baseball is the only option -- and an option that I find that I'm starting to enjoy more than MLB. What's your take on Wilson Betemit? Does he have the potential to turn into a true five-tool player, or is it just too early to tell?
I'm enjoying MLB more this year than in years past for some reason. I suppose it could be what is happening in Minnesota. Be that as it may, my heart is still in the minors, so I understand where you are coming from.
The general consensus among scouts is that Betemit is an outstanding prospect. I agree, although I may be two percent less enthusiastic than some people. Scout say that Betemit is a five-tool guy, but from my Seven Skill perspective, he still needs to develop his hitting. I'm optimistic he will do so, given his size and youth and track record in the low minors.
Betemit is off to a .250 start in 11 games for Myrtle Beach in the Class A Carolina League. Numbers at this point of the season don't mean much, but I am a bit concerned about 14 strikeouts and just two walks in 44 at-bats. He showed good strike zone judgment in the lower minors, so it's a good bet he'll get it back. But that will have to happen before the power develops.
Given the presence of Rafael Furcal, there is no particular reason for the Braves to rush Betemit.
Mindy N. writes: I noticed you wrote an article about prospects for the Dodgers in upcoming seasons. I went to high school with Ben Diggins at Bradshaw Mountain (Ari.) and I was wondering if you could give me any information about how he is doing in the organization.
Ben signed too late to pitch in 2000, so he is making his pro debut this year. The Dodgers sent him to Class A Wilmington in the Sally League to begin this season. So far, Ben has pitched seven innings, allowing four runs on six hits and a walk. He has fanned five.
Diggins has a terrific arm, with a fastball clocked as high as 98 mph. He moves very well for a 6-7 guy, and some people believe he would be a fine prospect as a hitter, due to his raw power, if pitching doesn't work out. His main problems are mechanical. He doesn't always throw strikes, and tends to get tired somewhat quickly for a big and strong guy. He also needs to refine his breaking stuff.
Long-term, Diggins looks like a potentially dominant pitcher, if his control comes around. He is certainly someone to watch closely this year, but I wouldn't expect him to arrive in Los Angeles until 2003.
Eric G. writes: Is either Chris Reitsma or Britt Reames ever going to be more than a good No. 4 or 5 starter?
There are some interesting parallels between Reitsma and Reames. Both were good prospects before hurting their elbows in 1997. Although Reitsma threw harder at the time, Reames may have a bit more zip now. Both spent a couple of years rehabbing before re-emerging as prospects in 2000. Both were traded last year, Reitsma from the Red Sox to the Reds, Reames from the Cardinals to the Expos. Both are pitching well early in 2001. Although the data is quite small, Reitsma has a better K/BB right now, so he may be the better bet for success this year.
The surest way for a baseball writer to look stupid is to make a prediction about a pitcher. I think both of these guys will pitch successfully in the major leagues, but whether that is for 400 innings or 2000 depends on how their arms hold up. I don't regard either as a potential ace, but they aren't Sean Bergman, either.
Ryan W. asks: Now that Drew Henson has devoted himself to baseball full-time, would you rate him higher as a prospect than you have in the past, or were your rankings always made with the qualifier, "If he were a full-time baseball player ... ?" To be specific, do you rate him a better long-term prospect than Rangers' outfielder Kevin Mench, who you seem to like quite a bit?
My ratings for Henson did take into account his lack of experience. I cut him some extra slack because of this. Now that he is playing full-time, we'll have a much better data set to work with. He is having trouble with the strike zone so far this year in the Florida State League, and he'll have to get that under control if he is to develop into the star that everyone expects.
Mench is hitting .261 at Double-A Tulsa, with some power, but a decline in his walk rate. I still think he'll be ready to hit in the major leagues by the time the season ends, perhaps sooner, assuming he doesn't start taking hitting lessons from Ozzie Guillen or something.
Who is the better long-term guy? Well, I am more confident about Mench's bat than I am about Henson's, although I recognize that Henson, based on his age, has a higher ceiling. It all depends on your taste in prospects.
Y.Y.L. writes: When will Chin-Hui Tsao be in the major leagues? Why is he in Class A instead of Double-A?
The Rockies want to be careful with him, which is why they sent him to the Carolina League rather than the Southern League to start the season. He has a rare combination of power and finesse (187/40 K/BB ratio last year, with a 94 mph fastball) so they want to be careful with such a valuable commodity. They are also being cautious so he can have plenty of time to adjust to North American culture and language.
I would expect him to spend most of the year with Salem, with a late jump to Double-A possible if he pitches well. He would then open 2002 in Double-A, with a late major league cup-of-coffee possible. I wouldn't expect him to contend for a rotation spot until 2003 at the earliest. He is only 19, and caution is better than recklessness when it comes to young pitching.
Matt H. writes: Can you tell me anything about Ryan Baerlocher, a right-hander in the Royals' system? He posted excellent numbers in A-ball last year, and he had a successful start in Wichita last week. However, most publications do not list him as a prospect
Baerlocher was a sixth-round pick in 1998, from Lewis-Clark State College in Idaho. He had a K/BB ratio of 193/50 last year in Class A, and I rated him as a "major sleeper" in the Minor League Scouting Notebook.
He's pitched well in both starts for Double-A Wichita this year, but of course it is early. Although he stands 6-5, 220, Baerlocher does not throw hard; his fastball is average at best. His breaking pitch is OK, but he gets his strikeouts with a wicked changeup. Finesse guys often struggle in Double-A, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts, especially once the weather warms in the Texas League. I see a lot of Wichita baseball games, so I hope to see Baerlocher pitch sometime this year.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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