I'm having a bad day. I won't bore you with the details; let's just say that the only way to make it more irritating would be for someone to send me a question asking if Deion Sanders was a prospect.
Fortunately, no one has done that, so I won't be forced to throw a brick through my computer screen. Let's get to some questions that were actually asked.
Bill R. writes: What's your take on Jason Botts -- a big, California-born, switch-hitting power hitter, last year with Texas' GCL affiliate; he seemed to do fairly well. I ask because I not only got to see him play junior college ball, but I also know him a bit personally and was impressed with both his intelligence and his character. What are his chances for success?
To say that Botts did "fairly well" last year in the Gulf Coast League is an understatement. He hit .319 with a .503 slugging percentage, posting an OPS that was 38 percent better than the league. Not bad for a guy who was a 46th-round draft pick in 1999, from a junior college in California.
Botts hasn't done as well this year. He's hitting .244 for the Savannah Sand Gnats in the Sally League, with just one homer. He is tied for the club lead with six doubles, however, and it's way too early in the season to draw strong conclusions from a limited data sample.
Jason is a 6-6, 245-pound monster, and a switch-hitter to boot. If he makes the adjustment to full-season ball, he'll emerge as a top-slugging prospect. The Rangers have good first basemen ahead of him in the system (especially phenom Carlos Pena), so there is no pressure to rush Botts. He is certainly worth tracking, and as he is only 20 years old, he has lots of time left on the development curve.
Mike F. asks: Are you aware of any plans for Jon Rauch within the White Sox organization as far as promoting him to the bigs this year? I took a flyer on him based on John Hunt's recommendation and now he's in Triple-A. I'm trying to determine how long I should keep him. I'm guessing it will depend on how/if he dominates Triple-A hitters.
Yep, Mike, it depends on how he does against Triple-A hitters. The plan was for Rauch to be first on the recall list if/when the Sox needed a pitcher, but that may have changed, as Jon Garland actually got the first call (and got bombed on Wednesday night). Jon has made just three starts for Charlotte, and hasn't done particularly well, posting a 5.79 ERA, allowing 15 hits in 14 innings.
The big problem has been health; he spent time on the DL earlier in April with a sore shoulder. It's not supposed to be a major problem, but any time a pitcher has arm woes, no matter how minor, I get concerned. If healthy, Rauch may be the best right-handed pitching prospect in the game, at least this side of Josh Beckett. But if he's not healthy, all bets are off.
But you already knew that.
Bob J. asks: I drafted Aaron Myette in a keeper SOM league two years ago. Do you see him as a major-league starter by the end of the year? What do you project long-term for him?
Myette was a hot prospect following his 1999 season, but 2000 was a bad year for him. He broke his hand while punching a wall in spring training, and had command problems when he did take the mound. He then went to the Rangers organization in the Royce Clayton trade.
I think this was a good move for his career. He was down on the White Sox depth chart, replaced with sexier prospects, but with the Rangers he'll have a better opportunity to contribute. He has a very good arm, and when he is focused and throwing strikes, he can shut down just about anyone. He is 2-1, 3.42 through five starts at Triple-A Oklahoma, solid numbers. I'm worried about his walk rate: 14 in 23.2 innings; it hasn't hurt him yet, but that's a below-average mark and something he will have to improve.
In the long run, I like Myette, although he is not an elite prospect. I think he can be an above-average major-league pitcher, given good health and adjustment time.
Sox Fan asks: What is your opinion of Chicago White Sox infield prospect Tim Hummel? Are the Sox going to let him stay at shortstop, or will they move him now that they have Royce Clayton?
Lots of White Sox-related questions today.
Hummel was a second-round draft pick in 2000, out of Old Dominion. He hit .326 in his 66-game pro debut in A-ball, with 34 walks in 242 at-bats for a .413 on-base percentage. He didn't show tons of power with the wooden bat, but is strong enough physically to develop it as he adjusts to pro conditions. He is hitting .313 so far this year in Double-A, so it looks like he'll keep hitting for average.
Hummel is still playing shortstop, but many scouts believe he will eventually end up at third base. He has a strong arm, but his range is average at best. That may be what moves him to the hot corner eventually, Clayton or no Clayton. I like his ability to get on base and hit for average, but we need to see how much power he develops and where he ends up with the glove.
Dave A. writes: Whatever happened to Calvin Pickering? Is he completely out of the picture as a prospect? Has he become another Roger Freed? I see he's still with the Orioles' Triple-A affiliate in Rochester, but couldn't a big guy like this help someone?
Roger Freed. Now there's a name I haven't heard in a long time.
You don't hear much about Calvin Pickering anymore. Injuries, weight problems, and questions about his attitude have tarnished his star, at least in the eyes of the Orioles. He is healthy again this year, and currently hitting quite well at Rochester (.325 batting, .432 OBP, .488 slugging). He is still only 24 years old, and I still believe he could help any number of clubs.
If I were running a team and needed a young slugging DH-type, Pickering would be top on my list of potential acquisitions.
Dan S. asks: The Phillies decided to challenge young right-hander Brett Myers by jumping him from low Class A Piedmont last year to Double -A Reading this year. Do you think that they did the right thing and do you think Myers will be able to make the jump successfully?
So far, Myers is handling the transition to Double-A without any trouble at all. Through five starts, Myers is 4-0, with a 1.41 ERA and a fine K/BB ratio of 34/8. He throws quite hard, throws strikes, and is quite confident on the mound, despite his youth. Barring disaster or injury, it looks like he's going to be able to skip high Class A without trouble, which would put him in line to reach Philadelphia a year earlier than anticipated.
That said, I tend to be very cautious with young pitchers. If I were running the Phillies farm system, I would have started him off in high Class A this year. He'd probably be 5-0 with a 1.20 ERA, but what's the rush? He's only 20, and it is better to be too careful with a young pitcher than too reckless.
Now, granted that he is in Double-A and doing extremely well, how long should he stay there? Again, if I were running the Phils, I'd leave him there until July. If he is still pitching great by that point, then I'd move him up to Triple-A. The Phillies may accelerate the timetable, of course, since they actually have to run an organization, as opposed to sitting at my computer and making grand pronouncements about the way things should be.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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