Thanks to everyone who participated in my chatroom on Wednesday. Let's get to the mailbag.
Magus writes: I read in an article a few weeks back that included a mention about the Tigers farm system as it stands. I was curious, what do you think about Eric Munson, Adam Pettyjohn, and Matt Wheatland? Munson came into the system with a lot of hype, but his minor-league statistics haven't really supported that hype. Where do you stand on his development and future? In regards to Pettyjohn and Wheatland, I feel they are the Tigers' two best pitching prospects, are there any that I am overlooking?
Munson didn't hit especially well in Double-A last year, but was bothered by a sore back for much of the season. He is healthier this year, and doing better, hitting .314 with a .492 slugging percentage. The negative is that he is repeating the Eastern League. I've compared him to Tino Martinez, and I still think that is how he will end up. He'll have a good career, with two or three outstanding seasons, but won't be a superstar.
Pettyjohn and Wheatland are both high on the Tigers pitching list, as you mention. Wheatland, their first-rounder from last year, has had some growing pains in Class A, but scouts still compare him to a young Kevin Brown. Pettyjohn is pitching quite well in Triple-A. He is a finesse lefty, but has a good idea on the mound and has passed the difficult tests that guys who don't throw hard have to get through to become prospects.
The best pitcher you didn't mention is Nate Cornejo, who is 6-1, 1.40 through seven Double-A starts. He throws hard, and has made major strides with his command and control over the last year. He doesn't get enough attention as a prospect, but has a higher ceiling than Pettyjohn and a better performance record so far than Wheatland.
Charles T. asks: I see so much of Andujar Cedeno when I look at Alfonso Soriano. What are your your thoughts?
Interesting comparison. Cedeno certainly had the power and raw ability to be a fine player, but never gained command of the strike zone or settled down defensively. His best season was 1993, when he hit .283 with 11 homers for the Astros at age 23. He had injury problems and went downhill from there.
Soriano is 23 this year, and so far is putting up numbers similar to what Cedeno did at the same age: .291 batting average, on pace for about 10 homers and similar OBP and SLG marks. He is much faster than Cedeno, and better with the glove, but his plate discipline is just about as bad.
Will Soriano follow the same career path? Well, he has better organizational support than Cedeno did at the same stage. Soriano also has a somewhat broader base of skills to build on. I think he'll have a better career than Cedeno did, but the similarities are certainly intriguing.
Jeff L. writes: Many of the Astros fans have been quite excited about our pitching staff at Double-A Round Rock. How would you rank the four starting pitchers (Tim Redding, Brad Lidge, Carlos Hernandez and Greg Miller) on that team? Would you rate any of these four pitchers above Roy Oswalt?
Well, I wouldn't rate any of them ahead of Oswalt at this point, since Oswalt is now in the majors and was a level above the Round Rock bunch anyhow. Nevertheless, Round Rock has one of the best collections of minor-league pitching that any team has had in some time.
I would rank Redding at the top of the group, with Lidge a millimeter behind. Both Redding and Lidge throw very hard, and are showing excellent control this year. Redding boasts a 1.27 ERA in seven starts, with a 57/13 K/BB ratio in 49.2 innings. Lidge has a 1.73 ERA in five starts, with an incredible 42/7 K/BB ratio in 26 innings. My main concern about Lidge is his health record; he missed much of the last two years with arm trouble. For this reason, I rank him a bit behind Redding.
Hernandez and Miller are lefties. Hernandez throws harder, but is struggling with his control (23 walks in 34 innings). Miller is pitching better this year, but is more of a finesse guy. I'd rank Hernandez ahead on the prospect charts.
The team also boasts Wilfredo Rodriguez, who was a top prospect a couple of years ago but has had injury and control problems since. He is being converted to the bullpen, with mixed results thus far.
Bruce N. writes: What can you tell us about Jon McDonald (Twins) down at Fort Myers? He's off to a great start!
McDonald is 4-1, 1.32 through seven starts, with a 35/13 K/BB ratio in 41 innings. He's allowed just 27 hits, and is definitely considered a prospect now. That wasn't true a year ago; he was successful as a college pitcher for Florida State (12-5, 3.76 last year), but went undrafted because he doesn't throw that hard.
The Twins signed him as a free agent, and have obviously been quite pleased with the results. His velocity is only average, but he has good breaking stuff, keeps the ball down, and knows how to pitch. I don't think he has much left to learn in Class A, given his performance thus far and his college background. As an experienced finesse pitcher, the first true test of his ability will be Double-A.
Personally, I wouldn't underestimate him.
Drew G. writes: Any idea on what the Cincinnati Reds were thinking in getting outfielder Wily Mo Pena from the Yankees for third baseman Drew Henson? GM Jim Bowden has described Pena as a "five-tool player, comparable to Sammy Sosa," but is there any reason for such optimism? His minor-league stats don't seem to back it up.
Well, supposedly the Reds had coveted Pena for some time, so they leapt at the chance to pick him up. Like Sammy Sosa, he is big, strong, looks good in uniform, and is a carbon-based life form residing on the third planet of a Type-G star in an isolated spiral arm of the Milky Way galaxy.
Pena is 19 years old, currently hitting .238 in the Midwest League with horrible strike zone judgment. When Sammy Sosa was 19, he hit .229 with horrible strike zone judgment in the Florida State League. He made his major-league debut the next season. The numbers are similar, although Sosa also stole 42 bases, which Pena won't do, and was a level higher.
That said, I think Pena is one of the more overrated prospects in the game today, and I don't think he'll have anything resembling a Sosa-like career. But he is still very young, and has plenty of time to prove me wrong.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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