A note about two top prospects before we get to the mailbag.
Two of the best prospects in baseball went down with injuries this week. Tampa Bay outfielder Josh Hamilton was struggling badly in Double-A, and is now on the sidelines with a bad back. The injury is not supposed to be serious, but back problems seldom go away easily, and are particularly problematic for young hitters trying to develop their power.
Worse news is out of Chicago, where White Sox right-hander Jon Rauch is down for the count with a shoulder injury. He will undergo a surgical procedure soon and will miss the rest of the year. Again, it's not supposed to have a negative long-term effect, but it obviously sets his timetable back, and puts another data point in the "young pitchers get hurt" column of history's spreadsheet.
Now, to the mailbag.
Brendan L. writes: What's your take on Sean McGowan in the Giants system? He seems to have a ridiculous career average in the minors so far. When will he get a shot or get dealt to a team that will give him one? How does he compare with Damon Minor, the other first-base prospect in the Giants system?
McGowan has a .324 career average in 234 minor-league games, including a .284 mark this year in his Triple-A debut. He has five homers thus far this year, putting him on pace to best his career-mark of 15 set in rookie ball in '99. I expect he'll continue to hit for average, but his strike zone judgment has been a problem thus far at Fresno. He's walked just eight times, while fanning 36. His walk rate has never been terrific, but the strikeouts are way up this year, likely a combination of the new strike zone and his first exposure against Triple-A pitchers. I expect him to correct this with experience, but I don't think he's ready for the majors yet.
McGowan was a third-round pick in '99, from Boston College. The main advantage he has over Minor is more defensive versatility. McGowan is being used as an outfielder this year, with Minor playing first base. He is no Gold Glove, but should be able to handle a corner spot. McGowan is also younger than Minor by three years. He has less raw power, but is more likely to hit for average.
Michael C. writes: I went to high school and played with David Williams, now in the Pirates' system. We were all pleasantly surprised to see him get drafted and even more excited that he's doing well in the minor leagues. My question is, with Pittsburgh's current pitching situation, do you think David has a chance to get a call up either late this year or get an invite to spring training next year?
Williams was a 17th-round pick in 1998, out of Delaware Tech Community College. I noticed him last year, due to his awesome 193/39 K/BB ratio at Class A Hickory. I gave him a C+ in my book, which is a good grade for a finesse pitcher who has yet to face Double-A hitters.
Dave is getting a chance at Double-A Altoona this year, and so far he is doing just fine. He is 4-1, 2.74, with a 32/10 K/BB ratio in 42.2 innings. His strikeout rate has dropped from last year, which is to be expected as he moves up the ladder, but he is still throwing strikes and getting people out more often than not.
Will he get a chance soon? If he continues to post a sub-3.00 ERA in Double-A, I'd expect he could get a shot in September. Even if that doesn't happen, I would imagine he would get a spring training invite at the least. In the long run, his chance to succeed will depend on if he shows he can trick major-league hitters with his control and deceptive motion as easily as he's fooled minor leaguers. At this point, we can't predict that.
Jon K. writes: I'm curious as to why Luis Lopez hasn't had an opportunity in the bigs? He hits well in Triple-A and can play first base and third base. Surely someone, if not the Blue Jays, can use him even as a bat off of the bench. Any thoughts?
Lopez has a career minor league batting average of .323, including marks of .322 and .328 in complete seasons at Syracuse. He doesn't have a ton of power, but proved long ago that he can hit for average and get on base at a decent rate. His walk rate isn't great, but he seldom strikes out and is an accomplished contact artist with doubles power.
As you point out, he can play first base and third base fairly well. His main problem is the fact that the Blue Jays have lots of hitters at the positions he plays, plus he doesn't have the big booming power bat that demands a lineup spot. At age 27, he isn't a true prospect, and is as good now as he is going to get. That said, he's pretty good. I think he could do a fine job as a bench player/platooner/pinch-hitter/occasional DH for the right team.
Mr. G. asks: What's your take on Bud Smith of the Cardinals? Do you think he'll get a call up this year? If so, how effective do you think he will be?
He isn't as hyped as some prospects, but Smith is excellent. He's 4-2, 2.25 in eight Triple-A starts thus far, with a 43/9 K/BB ratio in 52 innings. This on the heels of his 17-2 campaign in '00. Smith doesn't have blazing stuff, but his fastball is good enough and he throws it for strikes. He has a good curve and a killer changeup, and clearly knows how to set up hitters.
He probably doesn't have much left to learn in Triple-A, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him in the rotation by the All-Star break. Like all young pitchers, he is not a sure thing. If he stays healthy and doesn't take control lessons from Rick Ankiel, I think he'll have a good career. He could be John Tudor.
Derek D. writes: Adam Dunn of the Reds is really tearing the cover off the ball so far in Double-A. Do you think his high strikeout numbers are an indicator that he might struggle to make contact as the season progresses?
Dunn is mashing the ball in Double-A, and I think I'll do a full write-up of him soon. Currently hitting .338 with a .448 on-base percentage and .625 slugging percentage, Dunn is having no trouble at all with the transition to better competition after two years in the Midwest League.
His strikeouts are a bit high, yes, 31 in 136 at-bats. But he draws a lot of walks, too; 24 so far. I usually don't worry too much about a high strikeout rate if it is accompanied by lots of walks. Of course, it would be nice if he made better contact, but it's hard to see how it has hurt him so far. It may become an issue in Triple-A or the majors, but it may not, and given everything else he's done so far, I wouldn't worry too much about it.
John Sickels is the author of the 2001 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
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